TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$114,157
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$114,018

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,157 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 169 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3a86…4216backed No73c8,966$6,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,455.721060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid-10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc93c…52f1backed Yes28c6,092$1,734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,733.6411839.8%47 W · 71 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bc2…597abacked Yes16c3,903$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.1813230.3%40 W · 92 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3e0…4eb7backed Yes11c3,143$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.933818.4%7 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick18cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbeda…d080backed Yes8c2,473$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2a8…9b29backed Yes20c2,250$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-73.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5739…5f1abacked Yes26c1,896$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.014946.9%23 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x610a…cb39backed No69c1,811$1,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.181546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8b1…da36backed No58c1,760$1,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745.48540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-39.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…7523backed No77c1,567$1,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.412100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+76%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef95…88c0backed Yes19c1,548$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.281233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc932…e6a5backed No67c1,532$1,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.281060%6 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05f2…95debacked No80c1,387$1,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9290…3452backed Yes30c1,300$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3962850%14 W · 14 L+4.1wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+35%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5709…22c3backed Yes32c1,267$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.628639.5%34 W · 52 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x50e8…ac57backed Yes23c1,224$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes30c1,210$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.752347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes31c1,210$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.8823435.5%83 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82a7…afb5backed Yes23c1,190$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76fb…c306backed No76c1,148$871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.742142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-31.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c08…4812backed Yes5c1,064$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdeba…988dbacked Yes5c1,040$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x939c…463fbacked Yes5c1,020$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf027…3f04backed Yes46c1,019$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.471643.8%7 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-27.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x667c…e75abacked Yes5c1,015$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89a0…65fabacked Yes5c1,010$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7894…6a0ebacked Yes5c1,005$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes30c985.77$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.616547.7%31 W · 34 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fd8…7100backed Yes29c975.4$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.196442.2%27 W · 37 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b87…a606backed Yes6c970$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c9f…115bbacked Yes6c969.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked No75c951.24$716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.328660.5%52 W · 34 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed Yes39c942$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.868733.3%29 W · 58 L-6.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb21b…7266backed Yes5c920$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7350…04d6backed Yes6c920$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ad4…ce6fbacked Yes6c910$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafd6…c70dbacked Yes5c910$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71a8…9f08backed Yes6c860$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0169…695ebacked Yes6c860$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ac7…78c7backed Yes17c839$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.6330%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a10…fbe0backed No80c831$665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes19c807.28$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.0814147.5%67 W · 74 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c78…a1a3backed Yes13c798.34$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.7330%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54f2…55d9backed Yes17c792$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87b7…378ebacked Yes7c766$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6673…b0eebacked Yes7c766$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7eae…3562backed No77c730$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.9475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+19%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes20c717.74$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.88120%0 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x31a8…8edebacked No68c643.04$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.573545.7%16 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes40c608.3$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.21250%6 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+50.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdf94…972cbacked Yes9c599.06$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bb0…aa75backed No77c552.25$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.19666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd72…6cc4backed No69c550$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.52560%15 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-4.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1719…5ceabacked No69c550$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.52272.7%16 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd14d…cfb4backed Yes4c474.69$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd054…7e38backed No73c426.71$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.34050%20 W · 20 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-21.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes41c424.86$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.541118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick29cpaid+18.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No76c405.5$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.9226835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xc7e7…40b4backed Yes22c400$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.31637.5%6 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+34.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No72c384.4$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.752638.5%10 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+45.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef87…d589backed Yes31c354.78$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcae4…ccecbacked No77c354$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.42250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab4f…552fbacked No57c350.4$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.412547.2%59 W · 66 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes5c349.16$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.871024.9%5 W · 97 L-12.8wins-0.13per pick17cpaid-91.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes22c339$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.585337.7%20 W · 33 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes10c332$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.175327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes5c290$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.49752.7%2 W · 73 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-75.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7334…81dabacked Yes26c284.06$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.862240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+23.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes15c278.42$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0412225.4%31 W · 91 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x90b7…0b0dbacked No51c275.52$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.897638.2%29 W · 47 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-16.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc9b3…17f8backed No73c272.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.14333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-54.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7a8…9c50backed No56c259.66$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d66…fc54backed Yes23c237$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.51333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-51%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes5c228.94$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.661302.3%3 W · 127 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-68.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes30c227.23$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.17450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+85.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5bb…bdb8backed No67c224.73$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.736142.6%26 W · 35 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick51cpaid+9.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes6c222.8$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.951074.7%5 W · 102 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3133…dc6ebacked Yes34c205$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70580%4 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.41per pick39cpaid+128.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf808…6e99backed Yes32c204.53$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.66520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-68.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes6c200$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2432.3%1 W · 42 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-73%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes25c196$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+124.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6beb…6ea2backed Yes20c186.17$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.233727%10 W · 27 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8b4…1f6ebacked Yes29c179.38$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.15137.7%1 W · 12 L-3.5wins-0.27per pick34cpaid-85.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7022…f64ebacked Yes39c177.3$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.63040%12 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0991…e29abacked Yes24c169.14$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402623.1%6 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-23.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x578d…3306backed Yes23c167.61$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes21c166.59$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.417735.1%27 W · 50 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-29.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No79c162.94$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.946654.5%36 W · 30 L-6.1wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-16.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes23c158$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3417232%55 W · 117 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c15…9667backed Yes23c155$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-48.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No79c150.01$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.738355.4%46 W · 37 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa58b…ef84backed Yes43c150$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.19per pick54cpaid+43.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa43a…5cf4backed No67c149.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.25450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick70cpaid-28%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e66…6b36backed No64c145.34$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.99540%2 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick66cpaid-40.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No50c135.01$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.516341.3%26 W · 37 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes31c131.62$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.699341.9%39 W · 54 L-9.6wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-21.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf8a4…df53backed Yes30c124.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372050%10 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5235…43a8backed Yes24c123.14$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b0d…9501backed Yes15c122$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.79333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes41c117.21$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7814239.4%56 W · 86 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.