Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x208a4b23ae06cc9835815525d6b320d967194feac920693a7bd52b8ff2950610
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $114,157
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $114,018
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,157 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 169 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a86…4216backed No | 73c | 8,966$6,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,455.72 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 28c | 6,092$1,734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,733.64 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 16c | 3,903$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.18 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e0…4eb7backed Yes | 11c | 3,143$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.93 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…d080backed Yes | 8c | 2,473$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a8…9b29backed Yes | 20c | 2,250$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked Yes | 26c | 1,896$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.01 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x610a…cb39backed No | 69c | 1,811$1,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.18 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b1…da36backed No | 58c | 1,760$1,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…7523backed No | 77c | 1,567$1,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +76%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef95…88c0backed Yes | 19c | 1,548$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.28 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc932…e6a5backed No | 67c | 1,532$1,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.28 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f2…95debacked No | 80c | 1,387$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9290…3452backed Yes | 30c | 1,300$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +35%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed Yes | 32c | 1,267$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.62 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50e8…ac57backed Yes | 23c | 1,224$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes | 30c | 1,210$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.75 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 31c | 1,210$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.88 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a7…afb5backed Yes | 23c | 1,190$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76fb…c306backed No | 76c | 1,148$871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.74 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…4812backed Yes | 5c | 1,064$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeba…988dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,040$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x939c…463fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,020$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf027…3f04backed Yes | 46c | 1,019$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.47 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x667c…e75abacked Yes | 5c | 1,015$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89a0…65fabacked Yes | 5c | 1,010$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7894…6a0ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,005$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 30c | 985.77$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.61 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…7100backed Yes | 29c | 975.4$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.19 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b87…a606backed Yes | 6c | 970$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9f…115bbacked Yes | 6c | 969.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 75c | 951.24$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.32 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 39c | 942$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.86 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…7266backed Yes | 5c | 920$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7350…04d6backed Yes | 6c | 920$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad4…ce6fbacked Yes | 6c | 910$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafd6…c70dbacked Yes | 5c | 910$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71a8…9f08backed Yes | 6c | 860$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0169…695ebacked Yes | 6c | 860$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac7…78c7backed Yes | 17c | 839$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a10…fbe0backed No | 80c | 831$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes | 19c | 807.28$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.08 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c78…a1a3backed Yes | 13c | 798.34$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f2…55d9backed Yes | 17c | 792$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87b7…378ebacked Yes | 7c | 766$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6673…b0eebacked Yes | 7c | 766$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…3562backed No | 77c | 730$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 20c | 717.74$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.88 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31a8…8edebacked No | 68c | 643.04$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.57 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes | 40c | 608.3$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf94…972cbacked Yes | 9c | 599.06$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb0…aa75backed No | 77c | 552.25$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.19 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 69c | 550$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.5 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 69c | 550$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.5 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd14d…cfb4backed Yes | 4c | 474.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd054…7e38backed No | 73c | 426.71$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.3 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 41c | 424.86$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.54 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 76c | 405.5$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.92 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e7…40b4backed Yes | 22c | 400$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.3 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 72c | 384.4$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.75 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef87…d589backed Yes | 31c | 354.78$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcae4…ccecbacked No | 77c | 354$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 57c | 350.4$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.4 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 5c | 349.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 22c | 339$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.58 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 332$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 5c | 290$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7334…81dabacked Yes | 26c | 284.06$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.86 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 15c | 278.42$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…0b0dbacked No | 51c | 275.52$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.89 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b3…17f8backed No | 73c | 272.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a8…9c50backed No | 56c | 259.66$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d66…fc54backed Yes | 23c | 237$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 228.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 30c | 227.23$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bb…bdb8backed No | 67c | 224.73$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.73 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 222.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3133…dc6ebacked Yes | 34c | 205$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.41per pick | 39cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf808…6e99backed Yes | 32c | 204.53$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 25c | 196$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +124.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6beb…6ea2backed Yes | 20c | 186.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b4…1f6ebacked Yes | 29c | 179.38$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.15 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 34cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked Yes | 39c | 177.3$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0991…e29abacked Yes | 24c | 169.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…3306backed Yes | 23c | 167.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 21c | 166.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.41 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 79c | 162.94$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.94 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 23c | 158$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 23c | 155$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 79c | 150.01$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.73 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…ef84backed Yes | 43c | 150$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa43a…5cf4backed No | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 70cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e66…6b36backed No | 64c | 145.34$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 50c | 135.01$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.51 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 31c | 131.62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.69 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -9.6wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a4…df53backed Yes | 30c | 124.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 24c | 123.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…9501backed Yes | 15c | 122$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 41c | 117.21$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 142 | 39.4%56 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30?this page
- Will Russia enter Orikhiv by December 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Orikhiv by January 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Orikhiv by March 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Orikhiv by May 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Orikhiv by September 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.