TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6beb…6ea2

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
89
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Tweets, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 53 out of 100; worst Weather at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Ukrainelast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT3727%10 W · 27 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 37 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$4,705Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,705.38
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.23
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$2,928Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+171%+$5,006.85
Will Russia enter Rizdvianka by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$10.09
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$439Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$439.02
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$7,646Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$7,646.15
Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$70
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$199
Will Russia enter Rizdvianka by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$269Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$269.5
Will Russia enter Bilytske by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$223Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+380.9%+$851.02
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$1,925Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$1,925.18
Will Russia enter Kurylivka by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+400%+$400
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+566.7%+$850
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Russia enter Zaliznychne by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+100%+$250.2
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,063Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$1,063.29
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$900Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$900
Will Russia enter Toretske by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Will Russia enter Sofiivka by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$625Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+138.4%+$865.31
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$1,030Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,030
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$3,300Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$3,299.99
Will Russia capture Rodynske by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$475Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$475.41
Showing 25 of 37 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 29, 2025, EST1625%4 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,861Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST+72.7%+$1,353.09
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$136.01
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$652Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+274.2%+$1,786.32
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$14
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+238.6%+$325.61
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$78
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$21.59
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$98.58
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$51.44
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$162Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$161.83
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in November 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$35.81
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in November 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+566.7%+$85
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in November 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$10.01
All 16 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT1421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-46.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+400%+$91.21
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$4,000Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+25%+$1,000
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$4,000Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$1,000
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$1,740Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$1,740
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,040Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$1,040
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$60
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$550Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$550
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$10
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$60
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$100
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$400
US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$100
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$190
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$969Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$968.98
All 14 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-78.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-55%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Boxing — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 10, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$103.25
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)backed Belgium · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.5
France vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$248Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$248
All 3 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Dec 6, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Weather — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$63.16
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$1,003Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,003.19
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$1,055Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,055
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Conor McGregor · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$301Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$300.7
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump say "China" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$235Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$235.21
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Apple announce the iPhone 17e by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$172Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$172.08
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.