Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x761bd3e1cb91938afa149e84ab73f3604e852034a2f5ca8c829eb8020cad101e

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 2, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,203,555
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $724,586

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,203,555 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 528 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	10c	40,193$4,125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,124.94	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	9c	40,169$3,521 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,520.54	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	12c	39,128$4,795 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,794.65	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	4c	37,812$1,590 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,589.65	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	3c	36,746$1,265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,265.2	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	14c	20,206$2,862 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,861.66	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e22…3993backed Yes	4c	18,594$674 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$673.6	69	31.9%22 W · 47 L	+4.6wins	+0.07per pick	25cpaid	+81%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb6b…943abacked Yes	23c	17,701$4,065 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,065.39	38	36.8%14 W · 24 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a58…7e08backed Yes	29c	15,467$4,517 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,516.53	140	9.3%13 W · 127 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+642.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	12c	14,387$1,796 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,796.03	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes	13c	11,148$1,428 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,427.72	97	11.3%11 W · 86 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-63%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x701c…4615backed Yes	3c	11,088$335 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$335.46	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	9c	10,565$984 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$983.63	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	2c	10,300$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.5	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	15c	10,027$1,454 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,454	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x17a5…e00abacked Yes	4c	9,454$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400.15	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-1.2wins	-0.11per pick	20cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed Yes	9c	7,571$690 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$690.05	223	27.8%62 W · 161 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	13c	7,389$979 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$979.12	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2982…5a7cbacked Yes	27c	7,375$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000.32	31	25.8%8 W · 23 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes	4c	6,836$242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$241.74	625	39.5%247 W · 378 L	+48.1wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x62f6…95d5backed Yes	5c	6,641$358 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$357.72	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	18c	6,560$1,188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,188.16	781	8.7%68 W · 713 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	7c	6,519$436 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$435.69	2,160	3.9%85 W · 2,075 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6aca…c734backed Yes	9c	6,470$566 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$566.46	63	22.2%14 W · 49 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	23c	6,353$1,439 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,439.49	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c45…31c4backed Yes	13c	5,546$742 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$742.22	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-48.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes	4c	5,513$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.61	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8fc…49d7backed Yes	21c	5,244$1,104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,104.18	92	41.3%38 W · 54 L	+5.0wins	+0.05per pick	36cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	24c	5,105$1,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,200	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28b2…ff45backed Yes	2c	5,000$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	+116.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60b5…0f8cbacked Yes	5c	4,923$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243.09	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-1.4wins	-0.13per pick	40cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	10c	4,595$469 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$468.57	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05d9…f4dabacked Yes	14c	4,514$640 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$640	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-55.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	3c	4,500$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.3	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0744…b4cbbacked Yes	21c	4,471$918 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$918.39	73	13.7%10 W · 63 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-22%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	76c	4,455$3,384 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,071.34	246	72.8%179 W · 67 L	+15.5wins	+0.06per pick	66cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	8c	4,340$331 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$330.51	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	2c	4,261$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.01	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	10c	3,952$412 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$411.72	826	14.9%123 W · 703 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	14c	3,868$525 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$525	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x16d6…7268backed Yes	45c	3,425$1,525 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,524.68	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1f55…73b6backed Yes	34c	3,400$1,151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,150.55	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-1.7wins	-0.15per pick	34cpaid	-67.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	4c	3,368$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.08	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa553…3eaebacked Yes	4c	3,357$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148	20	20%4 W · 16 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe572…6241backed Yes	12c	3,336$407 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$407.16	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-25%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9fc4…089cbacked Yes	19c	3,276$608 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$608.45	25	20%5 W · 20 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked Yes	2c	3,200$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.4	212	20.3%43 W · 169 L	+13.4wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	+610.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa656…6db5backed Yes	2c	3,105$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.63	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf529…4fc0backed Yes	17c	3,104$538 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$538.05	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76a4…2770backed Yes	2c	3,059$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.63	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	15c	3,031$461 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$460.7	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1589…688bbacked Yes	12c	3,006$363 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$362.87	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	+246%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed Yes	16c	2,948$476 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$476.08	66	10.6%7 W · 59 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	+87.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	16c	2,857$461 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$460.77	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed No	57c	2,741$1,555 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,186.91	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x240d…bfd2backed Yes	18c	2,732$504 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$504.31	56	30.4%17 W · 39 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1420…8f14backed Yes	9c	2,581$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.47	66	27.3%18 W · 48 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes	23c	2,500$575 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$575.44	177	23.2%41 W · 136 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x50a6…1c2ebacked Yes	22c	2,500$538 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$537.5	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-1.7wins	-0.09per pick	20cpaid	-79%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	3c	2,472$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.16	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfa6…da4fbacked Yes	24c	2,452$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600.05	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16a0…2f60backed Yes	23c	2,439$572 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$572.07	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbda0…8992backed Yes	33c	2,289$755 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$755.26	166	21.7%36 W · 130 L	-6.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0643…8eccbacked Yes	5c	2,238$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.24	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03d0…d647backed Yes	11c	2,179$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.99	55	43.6%24 W · 31 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e6…b538backed Yes	7c	2,176$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.48	90	22.2%20 W · 70 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a30…f47dbacked Yes	20c	2,129$436 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$436.2	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa769…843ebacked Yes	21c	2,129$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-4.1wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc8a0…5cc4backed No	74c	2,090$1,546 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$543.36	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-2.2wins	-0.37per pick	71cpaid	-52.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8911…d388backed Yes	3c	2,063$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.02	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7529…5cd7backed Yes	7c	2,063$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.51	147	18.4%27 W · 120 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xbbef…7de2backed Yes	38c	2,000$752 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$752.09	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.6wins	+0.07per pick	18cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fed…d914backed Yes	11c	1,928$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.25	57	15.8%9 W · 48 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	3c	1,879$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.92	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd5e…271bbacked Yes	24c	1,862$448 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$448.37	35	37.1%13 W · 22 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1824…571abacked Yes	19c	1,845$349 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$349.45	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	9c	1,793$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.02	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d3c…5467backed Yes	12c	1,677$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.59	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	2c	1,601$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.51	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0927…6486backed Yes	21c	1,600$343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$342.55	145	15.2%22 W · 123 L	-8.5wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-55.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x221f…d868backed Yes	4c	1,600$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	4c	1,583$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.54	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3103…ea70backed Yes	24c	1,570$369 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$369.43	139	26.6%37 W · 102 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e5f…aaffbacked Yes	16c	1,563$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	1c	1,556$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.32	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes	2c	1,505$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.38	164	17.1%28 W · 136 L	+6.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	3c	1,501$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.05	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf8e…e3cebacked Yes	23c	1,494$347 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$347.13	79	16.5%13 W · 66 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a48…a46bbacked Yes	4c	1,490$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.4	92	19.6%18 W · 74 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-47.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe53…9917backed Yes	1c	1,484$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.36	79	20.3%16 W · 63 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc11e…75c8backed Yes	8c	1,434$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.98	78	9%7 W · 71 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+40.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes	23c	1,428$332 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$331.83	526	19.8%104 W · 422 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x9973…bc03backed Yes	16c	1,405$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228.1	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes	14c	1,395$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.96	127	12.6%16 W · 111 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46ef…7ecbbacked Yes	12c	1,369$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.71	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e6…fb8ebacked Yes	27c	1,350$365 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$365	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes	31c	1,332$411 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$410.65	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	3c	1,320$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.44	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8981…ce82backed Yes	12c	1,303$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.25	181	63%114 W · 67 L	+4.1wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b7b…a88dbacked Yes	23c	1,302$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.1	44	36.4%16 W · 28 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event