Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b16bdbabbdc938265aa48c9810f99ab45b41a33869c6bcbae8009c567f9a6fb

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 30, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $996,655
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $660,426

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $996,655 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	36,423$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.92	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbbcf…2ef2backed Yes	0c	20,099$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	14,530$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.07	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38a3…fe34backed Yes	0c	12,373$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.37	89	0%0 W · 89 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes	0c	11,868$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.87	136	0.7%1 W · 135 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+635.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f3d…199abacked Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.26per pick	40cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	11c	10,000$1,050 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,050	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	9,997$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8398…6136backed Yes	0c	8,570$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.84	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x15fb…3f50backed Yes	0c	6,093$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.41	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x83ad…f1c0backed Yes	1c	5,842$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.09	47	19.1%9 W · 38 L	-3.2wins	-0.07per pick	26cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x72a9…05ddbacked Yes	2c	5,834$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	41cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7329…d562backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	-59.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	4,671$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.85	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1af4…a4efbacked Yes	18c	4,631$825 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$825.01	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes	0c	4,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	134	7.5%10 W · 124 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+27%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes	1c	3,752$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.22	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	3,558$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.58	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes	1c	3,514$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.63	282	11%31 W · 251 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7248…753fbacked Yes	1c	3,295$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	94	10.6%10 W · 84 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1941…9ff3backed Yes	1c	3,003$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	55	12.7%7 W · 48 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc315…bf34backed Yes	0c	2,887$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfbb…9e7cbacked Yes	9c	2,740$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.5	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+62.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d6d…1ba1backed Yes	19c	2,661$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8db0…64ebbacked Yes	1c	2,310$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.95	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	2,229$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e6…fb8ebacked Yes	1c	2,159$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cf7…aba5backed Yes	13c	1,869$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	31	22.6%7 W · 24 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes	2c	1,710$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.51	97	11.3%11 W · 86 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-63%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a2b…b88abacked Yes	16c	1,671$269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$268.59	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-13%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdcf1…1695backed Yes	1c	1,623$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.04	58	22.4%13 W · 45 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7557…7579backed Yes	2c	1,490$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.81	49	26.5%13 W · 36 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	1c	1,487$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.44	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4113…9514backed Yes	14c	1,456$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204	25	36%9 W · 16 L	+2.5wins	+0.10per pick	26cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3731…fb76backed Yes	17c	1,400$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75ce…0a6fbacked Yes	9c	1,400$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-54.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x442d…523ebacked Yes	1c	1,356$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	20	0%0 W · 20 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	7c	1,250$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.82	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e26…e972backed Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	-4.6wins	-0.09per pick	23cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfcd2…427bbacked Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43cf…88fabacked Yes	16c	999.99$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	13cpaid	-93.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f2c…86bfbacked Yes	15c	999.99$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-1.9wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	6c	978.64$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	881.77$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.7	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	9c	845.21$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.91	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf529…4fc0backed Yes	12c	833$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.96	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c1d…e3c3backed Yes	19c	832.46$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.17	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.7wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b9d…68dbbacked Yes	19c	783.92$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa55e…c136backed Yes	3c	725$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.38	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-1.7wins	-0.17per pick	47cpaid	-26%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa40a…0615backed Yes	3c	666.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	50	18%9 W · 41 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78a2…acb9backed Yes	6c	600$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.10per pick	15cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0dd…45e7backed Yes	5c	585.52$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.7	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	-2.5wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x62d7…7e85backed Yes	16c	575.6$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.65	89	7.9%7 W · 82 L	-4.4wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0234…62dabacked Yes	13c	565.48$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9195…72a4backed Yes	18c	556$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.08	34	41.2%14 W · 20 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e8…db25backed Yes	19c	549.07$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.32	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c56…5ec8backed Yes	19c	526.32$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.36per pick	14cpaid	+400%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	14c	523.82$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.62	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf90f…8296backed Yes	19c	523.34$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-1.9wins	-0.16per pick	24cpaid	-81.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e60…3736backed Yes	14c	500$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67ff…721fbacked Yes	13c	500$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	79	12.7%10 W · 69 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x824c…6874backed Yes	19c	421.05$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	43	9.3%4 W · 39 L	-3.9wins	-0.09per pick	18cpaid	-67.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4c6c…f7cdbacked Yes	12c	400$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	33	9.1%3 W · 30 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1e4…0e38backed Yes	13c	387.54$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	60	16.7%10 W · 50 L	-5.5wins	-0.09per pick	26cpaid	-59.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x854e…8ad8backed Yes	13c	384.62$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	54	24.1%13 W · 41 L	-6.1wins	-0.11per pick	35cpaid	-47.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb5fa…fe6ebacked Yes	15c	333.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	53	18.9%10 W · 43 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes	18c	329.61$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1170…8398backed Yes	19c	315.79$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	25cpaid	+20.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16a1…838fbacked Yes	15c	300$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	28	7.1%2 W · 26 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	13cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes	16c	300$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	430	27%116 W · 314 L	+7.1wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c58…b15cbacked Yes	17c	300$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	45	6.7%3 W · 42 L	-4.3wins	-0.09per pick	16cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6709…385bbacked Yes	18c	299.97$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	442	27.4%121 W · 321 L	-21.9wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1420…8f14backed Yes	17c	294.12$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	66	27.3%18 W · 48 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	14c	290$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.95	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8936…79ebbacked Yes	17c	284.26$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.27	31	22.6%7 W · 24 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6179…d549backed Yes	18c	277.78$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-4.5wins	-0.11per pick	23cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes	18c	277.78$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	52	1.9%1 W · 51 L	-3.2wins	-0.06per pick	8cpaid	-80.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x392b…29d5backed Yes	18c	277.78$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	26cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e0e…12b3backed Yes	19c	263.16$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdee7…6096backed Yes	17c	261.76$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.13per pick	20cpaid	+58.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cc8…7be1backed Yes	19c	260.53$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.5	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xabfc…173ebacked Yes	15c	250$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.5	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	-2.2wins	-0.09per pick	20cpaid	-57.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c35…5bd0backed Yes	18c	200$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac96…4f2abacked Yes	14c	200$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc62…4f5ebacked Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-56.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ed1…a7fbbacked Yes	12c	200$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	159	11.9%19 W · 140 L	-6.3wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb885…4b0dbacked Yes	14c	199.98$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	44	18.2%8 W · 36 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0927…6486backed Yes	14c	199.59$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.68	145	15.2%22 W · 123 L	-8.5wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-55.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5730…5cffbacked Yes	8c	194.91$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	55	9.1%5 W · 50 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-59.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8810…1cd8backed Yes	10c	190$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.9wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4250…5c32backed Yes	16c	186.24$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	68	11.8%8 W · 60 L	-5.4wins	-0.08per pick	20cpaid	-49.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf98a…0e35backed Yes	16c	183.93$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89c7…3ff0backed Yes	18c	165.11$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	12c	150$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes	17c	143.72$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3fc…1e14backed Yes	15c	133.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	60	38.3%23 W · 37 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4d6…9357backed Yes	15c	133.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23a2…5643backed Yes	15c	133.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	+1.9wins	+0.09per pick	18cpaid	+49.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f4e…0782backed Yes	19c	131.58$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91a7…c755backed Yes	8c	130$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	24	8.3%2 W · 22 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event