Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e49c30d1d8d5cc632a19cee18355a5b6fce100087222c86f448ec22003cc5e1

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 2, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,021,334
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $431,215

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,021,334 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	203,976$815 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$815.49	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	138,905$1,124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,123.73	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	0c	23,000$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes	0c	19,912$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.31	127	12.6%16 W · 111 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	2c	18,162$303 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$302.72	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	0c	14,987$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.7	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe47c…642abacked Yes	0c	8,904$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	+71%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x51d6…3836backed Yes	1c	7,787$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.55	150	6%9 W · 141 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	6,675$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.85	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes	1c	6,295$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.61	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05d9…f4dabacked Yes	6c	6,087$365 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$365	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-55.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	4c	5,719$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	6c	5,176$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$284.95	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	4,949$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.92	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbef…7de2backed Yes	0c	4,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.6wins	+0.07per pick	18cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	3,877$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.69	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed Yes	1c	3,839$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.33	66	10.6%7 W · 59 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	+87.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa44a…5d2dbacked Yes	6c	3,280$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.62	35	8.6%3 W · 32 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	2c	3,142$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.19	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c45…31c4backed Yes	1c	3,132$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-48.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	6c	2,958$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.16	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa553…3eaebacked Yes	6c	2,300$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138	20	20%4 W · 16 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes	2c	2,244$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	52	1.9%1 W · 51 L	-3.2wins	-0.06per pick	8cpaid	-80.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd8fc…49d7backed Yes	5c	1,853$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	92	41.3%38 W · 54 L	+5.0wins	+0.05per pick	36cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes	2c	1,770$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.16	97	11.3%11 W · 86 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-63%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa769…843ebacked Yes	13c	1,576$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.99	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-4.1wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x8b08…04c5backed Yes	3c	1,492$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.26	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x22b7…1e4abacked Yes	5c	1,359$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.55	44	13.6%6 W · 38 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1941…9ff3backed Yes	1c	1,176$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.76	55	12.7%7 W · 48 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x637b…5c6bbacked Yes	5c	1,159$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.88	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-64.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf518…1655backed Yes	10c	1,143$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.69	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-64%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d6d…1ba1backed Yes	10c	1,033$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe578…9bc8backed Yes	10c	1,022$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	23cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	4c	1,019$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.1	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	1c	1,013$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.26	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	7c	1,003$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.67	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	3c	974.92$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.15	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4be…58f2backed Yes	1c	943.1$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.02	53	17%9 W · 44 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-48.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes	2c	936.62$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.65	526	19.8%104 W · 422 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x180f…0c07backed Yes	6c	811.46$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.12	76	26.3%20 W · 56 L	-3.2wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Yes	2c	758.36$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.47	147	15%22 W · 125 L	+4.8wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+80.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0643…8eccbacked Yes	5c	705$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.75	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae83…da1cbacked Yes	5c	700$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	2c	668.22$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.21	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	6c	634.1$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.67	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4113…9514backed Yes	8c	592.31$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	25	36%9 W · 16 L	+2.5wins	+0.10per pick	26cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd424…ed13backed Yes	4c	561.88$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.17per pick	29cpaid	-78.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x46ef…7ecbbacked Yes	11c	543.25$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes	7c	500$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	430	27%116 W · 314 L	+7.1wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x663a…5c51backed Yes	4c	482$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.21	48	18.8%9 W · 39 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes	4c	419.49$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	307	14%43 W · 264 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f6e…db0bbacked Yes	7c	419.41$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.24	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x34c2…1540backed Yes	5c	400$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.6	37	32.4%12 W · 25 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	29cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8114…085abacked Yes	4c	399.98$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.4	127	14.2%18 W · 109 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb027…7389backed Yes	11c	385.59$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	+1.1wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x039d…a1bcbacked Yes	6c	344.83$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-1.4wins	-0.12per pick	20cpaid	-82.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa0a…b7d2backed Yes	5c	267.23$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed Yes	8c	210.76$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.21	89	24.7%22 W · 67 L	-8.0wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9186…0666backed Yes	7c	163.93$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7afa…5cb0backed Yes	8c	162.34$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	61	8.2%5 W · 56 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7fc…bb8ebacked Yes	10c	104.9$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-48.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event