Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e36217f0015745a5d762c1fd4fc90ea2b6fd9de13a51359a26d9bd71746844b

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 2, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $962,317
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $379,574

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $962,317 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	212,806$611 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$610.78	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	174,546$913 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$913.48	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15f4…7e6bbacked Yes	0c	22,061$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.78	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	0c	14,987$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.67	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c45…31c4backed Yes	0c	11,405$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-48.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed Yes	1c	9,262$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.69	66	10.6%7 W · 59 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	+87.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7fc…bb8ebacked Yes	1c	7,352$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.41	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-48.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	5,423$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.91	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	4,945$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.94	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x424a…55cfbacked Yes	4c	3,000$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.52	25	8%2 W · 23 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	1c	2,461$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fa6…4465backed Yes	1c	2,222$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	7cpaid	+413.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	2,134$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.26	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	2c	2,100$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.49	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes	1c	2,023$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.49	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1941…9ff3backed Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	55	12.7%7 W · 48 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	2c	1,957$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	1c	1,600$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.55	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	1,552$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.67	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d6d…1ba1backed Yes	7c	1,477$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	5c	1,295$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.74	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	2c	1,281$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.08	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x637b…5c6bbacked Yes	2c	1,238$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.23	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-64.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e10…beeebacked Yes	1c	1,117$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.17	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa0a…b7d2backed Yes	2c	1,081$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05d9…f4dabacked Yes	2c	1,077$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-55.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x22b7…1e4abacked Yes	5c	1,061$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.09	44	13.6%6 W · 38 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4113…9514backed Yes	5c	984.23$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	25	36%9 W · 16 L	+2.5wins	+0.10per pick	26cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Yes	3c	963.75$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.54	147	15%22 W · 125 L	+4.8wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+80.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae83…da1cbacked Yes	3c	699.96$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe63d…87fcbacked Yes	2c	574.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+122.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	3c	539.98$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.1	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x663a…5c51backed Yes	4c	527.78$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	48	18.8%9 W · 39 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9186…0666backed Yes	6c	365.68$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event