Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22e626b785354df961f8cfd33f04de94f4f754829c64a528eb9fd58398211a71

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 2, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,112,542
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,184,260

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,112,542 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 728 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	50c	38,234$19,175 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19,059.12	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	67c	32,390$21,826 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,563.99	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x16bd…e288backed No	62c	20,650$12,861 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12,860.56	31	12.9%4 W · 27 L	-1.6wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed No	0c	15,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	21c	14,580$3,014 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,566.3	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	63c	14,377$9,081 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,295.87	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	62c	14,303$8,908 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,395.19	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked No	39c	14,008$5,434 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,434.32	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8974…bedebacked No	0c	11,156$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.37	72	33.3%24 W · 48 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	29cpaid	+42%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a58…7e08backed Yes	28c	10,210$2,852 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,358.32	140	9.3%13 W · 127 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+642.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	68c	9,600$6,546 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,545.98	248	73%181 W · 67 L	+15.9wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	44c	9,079$4,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,078.79	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	61c	8,758$5,343 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,414.55	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2982…5a7cbacked Yes	46c	8,664$4,001 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,662.38	31	25.8%8 W · 23 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	22c	8,075$1,812 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,263.18	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed No	2c	7,121$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.27	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	20c	7,000$1,371 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,628.87	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes	29c	6,988$1,993 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,995.04	97	11.3%11 W · 86 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-63%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8dc…f704backed Yes	80c	6,106$4,866 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,239.33	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.20per pick	80cpaid	+25.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0654…fabdbacked Yes	62c	5,786$3,606 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,180.64	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-1.5wins	-0.11per pick	34cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16d6…7268backed Yes	53c	5,595$2,972 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,622.71	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	25c	5,438$1,382 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,056.57	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	23c	5,262$1,219 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,043.43	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd8fc…49d7backed Yes	29c	5,226$1,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,726.36	92	41.3%38 W · 54 L	+5.0wins	+0.05per pick	36cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	19c	5,000$950 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,050	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes	64c	4,983$3,197 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,785.73	52	40.4%21 W · 31 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	58c	4,693$2,714 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,978.32	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked Yes	58c	4,643$2,702 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,940.75	42	23.8%10 W · 32 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe47c…642abacked Yes	78c	4,610$3,599 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,011.15	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	+71%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	57c	4,552$2,573 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,978.77	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb6b…943abacked Yes	34c	4,542$1,562 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,980.04	38	36.8%14 W · 24 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed Yes	28c	4,217$1,183 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,033.46	223	27.8%62 W · 161 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	29c	4,038$1,187 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,850.3	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1f55…73b6backed Yes	45c	3,996$1,778 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,217.49	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-1.7wins	-0.15per pick	34cpaid	-67.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb10a…ab03backed Yes	65c	3,724$2,437 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,286.9	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a30…f47dbacked Yes	37c	3,651$1,336 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,314.76	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	21c	3,576$760 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,815.93	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b7b…a88dbacked Yes	22c	3,504$766 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,737.52	44	36.4%16 W · 28 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c27…2132backed Yes	53c	3,451$1,835 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,615.58	64	57.8%37 W · 27 L	+6.7wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	62c	3,405$2,122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,121.72	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	64c	3,395$2,188 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,207.02	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c54…1d08backed Yes	15c	3,340$501 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,839	64	18.8%12 W · 52 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes	76c	3,229$2,464 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$765.42	238	19.3%46 W · 192 L	-6.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-25%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0744…b4cbbacked Yes	22c	3,140$703 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,437.43	73	13.7%10 W · 63 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-22%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No	60c	2,960$1,767 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,766.93	108	57.4%62 W · 46 L	-6.6wins	-0.06per pick	64cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	35c	2,911$1,031 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,879.93	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	55c	2,910$1,599 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,310.95	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfa6…da4fbacked Yes	21c	2,900$609 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,290.98	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed No	32c	2,834$921 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$920.91	53	11.3%6 W · 47 L	-3.5wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	36c	2,757$980 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$979.63	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf529…4fc0backed Yes	15c	2,693$394 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,299.13	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e6…fb8ebacked Yes	39c	2,561$987 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,573.87	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf8e…e3cebacked Yes	40c	2,554$1,033 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,520.31	79	16.5%13 W · 66 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	19c	2,496$474 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,021.64	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90f4…e93dbacked No	4c	2,496$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.7	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed Yes	25c	2,495$633 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,861.88	66	10.6%7 W · 59 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	+87.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa956…666fbacked Yes	49c	2,457$1,200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,256.99	65	21.5%14 W · 51 L	-5.7wins	-0.09per pick	30cpaid	-53%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes	24c	2,392$568 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,824.07	155	20%31 W · 124 L	+6.0wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x442d…523ebacked No	4c	2,381$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.92	20	0%0 W · 20 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03d0…d647backed Yes	57c	2,367$1,342 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,024.61	55	43.6%24 W · 31 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ff…721fbacked Yes	30c	2,301$694 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,607.53	79	12.7%10 W · 69 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	65c	2,138$1,380 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$758.41	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb027…7389backed Yes	11c	2,080$219 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,860.72	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	+1.1wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x701c…4615backed Yes	53c	2,008$1,070 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$938.69	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbbef…7de2backed Yes	41c	2,000$830 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,170.06	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.6wins	+0.07per pick	18cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e37…cccbbacked No	46c	2,000$922 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$922	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	36cpaid	+53.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7502…beafbacked Yes	72c	1,990$1,430 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$560.48	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.28per pick	72cpaid	+39.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x913c…d100backed Yes	57c	1,825$1,037 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$787.31	28	50%14 W · 14 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xced0…7faebacked Yes	67c	1,788$1,199 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$588.93	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.33per pick	67cpaid	+49.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde03…e629backed Yes	57c	1,784$1,025 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$758.6	79	45.6%36 W · 43 L	+3.3wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	21c	1,710$351 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,358.38	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e77…8786backed Yes	61c	1,707$1,043 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$663.39	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.07per pick	59cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46ef…7ecbbacked Yes	9c	1,700$149 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,550.5	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x039d…a1bcbacked No	2c	1,645$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-1.4wins	-0.12per pick	20cpaid	-82.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes	37c	1,645$603 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,041.72	526	19.8%104 W · 422 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	20c	1,629$333 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,295.9	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7529…5cd7backed Yes	25c	1,588$392 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,196.15	147	18.4%27 W · 120 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa553…3eaebacked Yes	31c	1,583$495 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,087.86	20	20%4 W · 16 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	13c	1,581$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,381.2	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6c28…40e7backed Yes	51c	1,571$799 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$771.54	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	-3.0wins	-0.10per pick	28cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3103…ea70backed Yes	25c	1,570$396 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,173.8	139	26.6%37 W · 102 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6aca…c734backed Yes	66c	1,524$1,001 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$523.16	63	22.2%14 W · 49 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes	23c	1,500$337 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,162.49	177	23.2%41 W · 136 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xecef…75fabacked Yes	54c	1,500$816 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$684.27	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbda0…8992backed Yes	24c	1,499$363 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,135.62	166	21.7%36 W · 130 L	-6.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked No	7c	1,492$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.87	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d27…bd5abacked Yes	77c	1,491$1,154 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$336.78	118	34.7%41 W · 77 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes	60c	1,482$889 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$592.74	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9880…82d6backed No	69c	1,463$1,012 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,011.53	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.19per pick	31cpaid	-81.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3d8f…75e6backed Yes	21c	1,438$307 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,130.97	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	20c	1,400$274 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,125.59	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e22…3993backed No	44c	1,353$601 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$601.47	69	31.9%22 W · 47 L	+4.6wins	+0.07per pick	25cpaid	+81%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbed7…c0cfbacked Yes	15c	1,334$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,134.05	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+1.1wins	+0.18per pick	15cpaid	+106.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x50a6…1c2ebacked Yes	41c	1,272$516 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$756.02	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-1.7wins	-0.09per pick	20cpaid	-79%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x47b2…e8f0backed Yes	63c	1,266$803 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$463.59	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12f6…80c4backed Yes	65c	1,246$811 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$434.39	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Yes	42c	1,238$520 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$718.35	50	18%9 W · 41 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes	40c	1,229$491 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$737.92	61	24.6%15 W · 46 L	-5.3wins	-0.09per pick	33cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	12c	1,228$143 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,085.04	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0ed1…a7fbbacked Yes	40c	1,213$490 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$723.53	159	11.9%19 W · 140 L	-6.3wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event