Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc3df27d81c00c669d29f4ef79083f140d6d8df90e7656a30fe231bec0dc9953

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 29, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $99,299
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $34,259

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,299 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	2,810$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.03	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0338…70cfbacked Yes	4c	2,605$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-86.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	1c	2,214$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.21	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	2,198$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.92	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	1,759$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.86	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x27e4…ff39backed Yes	1c	1,382$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes	2c	1,356$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.47	97	11.3%11 W · 86 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-63%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62d7…7e85backed Yes	12c	1,170$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.8	89	7.9%7 W · 82 L	-4.4wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x652d…46b3backed Yes	1c	1,044$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.72	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+243.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5032…d300backed Yes	9c	1,000$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.18	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-1.4wins	-0.10per pick	17cpaid	-68.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b9d…68dbbacked Yes	15c	1,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3003…46e1backed Yes	14c	964.47$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.38	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x75ce…0a6fbacked Yes	2c	899.98$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.6	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-54.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc62…4f5ebacked Yes	4c	891.57$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-56.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes	11c	890.85$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.9	127	12.6%16 W · 111 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0234…62dabacked Yes	12c	800$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x882e…e757backed Yes	7c	782.25$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.76	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89c7…3ff0backed Yes	12c	683.33$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	12c	446.76$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.08	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa15f…2f24backed Yes	3c	425.24$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.91	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.6wins	-0.20per pick	32cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3731…fb76backed Yes	12c	400$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	3c	370$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.43	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	11c	354$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.89	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes	12c	300$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	430	27%116 W · 314 L	+7.1wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1eea…0919backed Yes	8c	296.05$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.12	30	6.7%2 W · 28 L	-3.7wins	-0.12per pick	19cpaid	-74.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x824c…6874backed Yes	14c	287.86$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	43	9.3%4 W · 39 L	-3.9wins	-0.09per pick	18cpaid	-67.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0bad…4ee8backed Yes	6c	262$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.04	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0ed1…a7fbbacked Yes	11c	261.04$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.71	159	11.9%19 W · 140 L	-6.3wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x213e…98b7backed Yes	15c	260.42$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-1.5wins	-0.09per pick	20cpaid	-56.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3eb…376cbacked Yes	12c	240$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	91	41.8%38 W · 53 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb04…3ce1backed Yes	7c	216.33$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.14	25	16%4 W · 21 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-54.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x717e…ca8bbacked Yes	15c	200$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	65	26.2%17 W · 48 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	22cpaid	-12%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae83…da1cbacked Yes	12c	200$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbe3…bd1dbacked Yes	8c	200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	+9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fd4…8cc6backed Yes	11c	190$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.2	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3fc…1e14backed Yes	13c	153.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	60	38.3%23 W · 37 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf98a…0e35backed Yes	13c	153.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd396…384dbacked Yes	14c	140$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.6	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4250…5c32backed Yes	16c	125$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	68	11.8%8 W · 60 L	-5.4wins	-0.08per pick	20cpaid	-49.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1ab6…8834backed Yes	16c	125$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x519f…9026backed Yes	14c	100.33$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.99	35	17.1%6 W · 29 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0684…d593backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	35	11.4%4 W · 31 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bd2…2b28backed Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-2.0wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2d9a…7991backed Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	26cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60d5…e846backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c08…8bacbacked Yes	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-2.6wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5c35…5bd0backed Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f83…fcfdbacked Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	25	24%6 W · 19 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+28.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7088…f1ebbacked Yes	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-69.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc36a…be63backed Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.85	31	9.7%3 W · 28 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c99…76c8backed Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	26	3.8%1 W · 25 L	-2.9wins	-0.11per pick	15cpaid	-82.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6e59…8ec5backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	99	5.1%5 W · 94 L	-5.8wins	-0.06per pick	11cpaid	-56.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x846d…3f44backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-2.2wins	-0.16per pick	23cpaid	-83.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x746e…04dabacked Yes	13c	80$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Yes	13c	80$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event