Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb494383beb8e77443d24b504e0b19e9ec252407074222fab67fa802448a92bb6

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 2, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,457,659
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $835,361

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,457,659 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 260 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x16bd…e288backed Yes	2c	69,505$1,086 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,086.33	31	12.9%4 W · 27 L	-1.6wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7999…1d86backed Yes	0c	35,591$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.55	89	38.2%34 W · 55 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	0c	32,411$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.14	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes	0c	28,108$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.11	136	0.7%1 W · 135 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+635.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	1c	27,477$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.71	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6024…9101backed Yes	0c	23,281$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.28	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.9wins	+0.18per pick	2cpaid	+450.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	4c	23,000$851 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$850.8	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	9c	20,267$1,796 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,796.33	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	6c	14,999$877 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$877.41	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8936…79ebbacked Yes	1c	14,655$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.43	31	22.6%7 W · 24 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	7c	11,145$808 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$808.19	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	9,660$427 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$426.61	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c7d…911cbacked Yes	0c	9,227$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.93	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	2c	9,034$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.71	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	0c	8,949$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.68	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc5ed…9374backed Yes	0c	8,049$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-61.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	5c	7,698$396 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$395.88	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	7c	7,530$552 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$551.81	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	5c	7,480$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360.1	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf73…c54fbacked Yes	0c	6,730$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed Yes	14c	5,561$758 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$758.46	66	10.6%7 W · 59 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	+87.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f0d…f030backed Yes	1c	5,544$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	2c	5,511$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a30…f47dbacked Yes	9c	4,915$465 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$464.84	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes	0c	4,812$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.68	134	7.5%10 W · 124 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+27%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83ad…f1c0backed Yes	15c	4,724$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700.08	47	19.1%9 W · 38 L	-3.2wins	-0.07per pick	26cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	3c	4,550$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.85	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac88…9b35backed Yes	10c	4,500$449 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$449	66	6.1%4 W · 62 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c9c…6824backed Yes	6c	4,371$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$274.84	75	6.7%5 W · 70 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	8c	4,247$351 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$351.03	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8fd…4373backed Yes	12c	4,200$488 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$487.81	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf529…4fc0backed Yes	15c	4,132$602 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$602.11	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	9c	3,840$363 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$362.58	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes	9c	3,800$351 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$351.12	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1cd…8bc0backed Yes	5c	3,602$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.76	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b7b…a88dbacked Yes	5c	3,496$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.58	44	36.4%16 W · 28 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes	0c	3,422$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	282	11%31 W · 251 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed Yes	3c	3,400$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	223	27.8%62 W · 161 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	3c	3,326$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.95	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	6c	3,235$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.91	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	2c	2,993$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb56a…a485backed Yes	0c	2,991$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	40	17.5%7 W · 33 L	-2.4wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-62.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	2c	2,988$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.5	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes	7c	2,762$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.09	127	12.6%16 W · 111 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5300…d039backed Yes	4c	2,686$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	64	12.5%8 W · 56 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9792…9212backed Yes	8c	2,546$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.99	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	+1.8wins	+0.07per pick	12cpaid	+217.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes	4c	2,410$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.56	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	0c	2,400$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.52	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc11e…75c8backed Yes	1c	2,145$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.5	78	9%7 W · 71 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+40.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes	5c	2,084$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.63	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	13c	2,008$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255.5	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa553…3eaebacked Yes	5c	2,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	20	20%4 W · 16 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfbb…9e7cbacked Yes	14c	2,000$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+62.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes	2c	2,000$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x0b04…6274backed Yes	14c	1,816$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247.37	20	50%10 W · 10 L	+2.3wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+59.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	1,794$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.04	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0643…8eccbacked Yes	5c	1,647$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.92	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes	3c	1,635$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.47	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1ea…8ad6backed Yes	4c	1,630$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-2.3wins	-0.17per pick	25cpaid	-67.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x67ff…721fbacked Yes	4c	1,585$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.77	79	12.7%10 W · 69 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Yes	14c	1,584$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.96	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-2.6wins	-0.10per pick	18cpaid	-52.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes	2c	1,577$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.78	164	17.1%28 W · 136 L	+6.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3103…ea70backed Yes	17c	1,570$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$261.45	139	26.6%37 W · 102 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e6…fb8ebacked Yes	12c	1,524$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb59f…dbedbacked Yes	2c	1,500$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	5c	1,471$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.32	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes	1c	1,470$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.82	303	17.2%52 W · 251 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x814c…d63bbacked Yes	10c	1,467$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.68	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+2.0wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4113…9514backed Yes	14c	1,461$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.87	25	36%9 W · 16 L	+2.5wins	+0.10per pick	26cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9519…9739backed Yes	14c	1,429$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	65	18.5%12 W · 53 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes	9c	1,311$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.34	97	11.3%11 W · 86 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-63%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe63d…87fcbacked Yes	16c	1,300$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+122.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcf1…1695backed Yes	8c	1,235$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.88	58	22.4%13 W · 45 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7557…7579backed Yes	10c	1,202$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.95	49	26.5%13 W · 36 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb027…7389backed Yes	14c	1,200$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	+1.1wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b6c…a1c5backed Yes	13c	1,200$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156	42	11.9%5 W · 37 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7418…3f31backed Yes	1c	1,082$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes	10c	1,046$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.61	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7248…753fbacked Yes	6c	1,046$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.3	94	10.6%10 W · 84 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd81d…20f7backed Yes	1c	1,040$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.78	30	63.3%19 W · 11 L	+2.7wins	+0.09per pick	54cpaid	+22%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3d8f…75e6backed Yes	12c	1,035$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d3c…5467backed Yes	15c	1,029$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.4	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	15c	1,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0c0…9165backed Yes	13c	1,000$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	6c	1,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8114…085abacked Yes	2c	1,000$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	127	14.2%18 W · 109 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43cf…88fabacked Yes	13c	999.91$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.99	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	13cpaid	-93.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe4be…58f2backed Yes	2c	943.1$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.73	53	17%9 W · 44 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-48.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde95…e0aebacked Yes	11c	920.88$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.85	25	16%4 W · 21 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	-55.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x856c…7e2ebacked Yes	14c	917.69$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-1.6wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	-22%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	15c	889.76$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.72	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb009…b498backed Yes	8c	886.93$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.83	34	23.5%8 W · 26 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb10a…ab03backed Yes	4c	880$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.64	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	7c	855$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.85	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1264…31e5backed Yes	7c	833.33$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	88	26.1%23 W · 65 L	-6.3wins	-0.07per pick	33cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2c1d…e3c3backed Yes	14c	832.46$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.54	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.7wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked Yes	18c	830.38$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.75	93	55.9%52 W · 41 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	62cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes	3c	799.99$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.2	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	13c	784.31$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.46	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe5d4…e7f7backed Yes	15c	780$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.22	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-51%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event