TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xac88…9b35

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
136
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 54 out of 100; worst Middle East at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jun 5, 2026, EDT666.1%4 W · 62 L-0.3wins0.00per pick6cpaid-49%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 66 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.5
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.1
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.1
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.6
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.6
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$74
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.19
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.5
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+1,900%+$950
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.2
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$55
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.5
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$16
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$15.6
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$24
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Showing 25 of 66 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2026, EDT1921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Timberwolves vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
Warriors vs. Clippersbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$260Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+669.2%+$1,740
Suns vs. Thunderbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Clippers vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$120
Spurs vs. Magicbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+300%+$1,500
Wizards vs. Timberwolvesbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Kings vs. Thunderbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$80
Warriors vs. Heatbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$700Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$700
Jazz vs. Lakersbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$721Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$721
Bulls vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$625Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$625.2
Clippers vs. 76ersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$600
Spread: Rockets (-7.5)backed Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Magic vs. Rocketsbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$300
Spread: Celtics (-4.5)backed Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Clippers vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$975Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+53.8%+$525
Nuggets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$2,107Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$2,107.15
Lakers vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$860Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$859.99
Thunder vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$169Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$169.08
Warriors vs. Spursbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$820Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST+387.8%+$3,179.99
All 19 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 2, 2026, EST1020%2 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-67%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,590Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+88.7%+$1,410
Will Zama launch a token in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$746Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$746.32
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$529Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$529
Will Stable launch a token in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$110
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$2,130Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST+40.8%+$870
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$42.5
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$725Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$725
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 25? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$113.25
Over $20M committed to the Solomon public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Meteora FDV above $4B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$253Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$253
All 10 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick22cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2026, EST80%0 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 23, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-43.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+45.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro out in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,520Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+31.6%+$480
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$817Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+58.7%+$479.54
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+51.5%+$257.58
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mikie Sherrill win by >14%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$175
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Nothing Ever Happens: Taylor Swift Editionbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18.79
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 29, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$885Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$885.36
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.