TailMyPicks
Market

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel allow independent journalists into Gaza by December 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,142,565
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,258,165

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,142,565 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 333 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2968…ce4cbacked No1c200,087$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,35010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15c9…7ff1backed No0c103,063$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5181…0eb9backed No0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54a2…4d77backed No0c87,300$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bff…f622backed No0c79,195$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952245.5%10 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+24.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x64f6…1698backed No0c61,074$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7740%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x207f…30d3backed No0c50,460$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4630%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6974…1287backed No0c49,500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e47…3715backed No0c47,188$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.9450%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x012d…c934backed No0c42,366$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a55…a83dbacked No0c33,000$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8304…d52abacked No0c31,200$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x151a…6b94backed No1c29,847$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34a6…7300backed No1c26,400$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ee3…3c83backed No0c21,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe598…a0a8backed No16c20,586$3,383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,382.545623.2%13 W · 43 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-32.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5b1…bde6backed No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c16…8bfabacked No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick4cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ba9…2ccabacked No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b61…7ab1backed No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa099…e8eabacked No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8700…bdbcbacked No0c19,070$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.07333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+86.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bb7…17a8backed No0c18,200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5909…6c88backed No0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc10d…4532backed No1c13,533$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc70…3e5cbacked No0c13,500$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe682…d1ddbacked No0c13,082$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.3320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82bb…3105backed No1c12,589$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.88728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01cc…1f09backed No0c12,363$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa294…1365backed No0c12,340$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37dc…3ae0backed No0c12,320$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1071…42cebacked No0c11,387$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.71728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+28.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1775…5b6fbacked No1c11,015$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90fa…b658backed No0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c42…a97abacked No0c10,687$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8efc…8a6cbacked No0c10,515$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24d3…fc4dbacked No0c10,021$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf486…0cb4backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf05…35c1backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac88…9b35backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x734d…1cb6backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1552…967dbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101040%4 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+35.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd9af…d832backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf717…51e2backed No0c9,447$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.58616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-74%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe55e…0a13backed No0c9,400$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4240%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71aa…46e6backed No0c9,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2480%0 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xccf3…a220backed No0c7,500$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9a0…434dbacked No0c7,333$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb055…659dbacked No0c7,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc445…3f35backed No0c6,999$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f3d…85a7backed No0c6,960$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes47c6,892$3,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,619.0136750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x20bb…741bbacked No0c6,500$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No12c5,985$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.4937740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc93c…52f1backed No30c5,756$1,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,719.954055%22 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24d5…c4c0backed No15c5,633$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$870966.7%6 W · 3 L+3.0wins+0.33per pick33cpaid+54.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1a54…bcf2backed No0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No27c5,000$1,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,348.5535347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b62…e21dbacked No0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcc7…2abcbacked No0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No20c4,841$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.1742818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x108d…508abacked No16c4,172$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.312035%7 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-54.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x983c…385dbacked No14c3,878$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.376240.3%25 W · 37 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63c3…3acdbacked No1c3,854$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1888…a577backed No0c3,849$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked No9c3,600$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.824839.5%98 W · 150 L-0.9wins0.00per pick40cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No11c3,566$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.247334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed No18c3,333$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.938137%30 W · 51 L-9.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-31.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No15c3,259$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.889955.6%55 W · 44 L+10.5wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+17%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x35e4…5bbcbacked No0c3,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123240.6%13 W · 19 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+71.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed No9c2,960$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.1312650.8%64 W · 62 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+22.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x52b7…4597backed Yes79c2,789$2,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.7512654%68 W · 58 L+18.8wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+128.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x28b2…a74fbacked No11c2,730$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.81825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-65%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34a…6007backed No8c2,657$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.1921160.7%128 W · 83 L+14.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x39b2…c7bfbacked Yes80c2,514$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5141100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa493…612ebacked No20c2,505$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005042%21 W · 29 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa414…d03dbacked No0c2,500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.39per pick32cpaid+111.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6217…53d8backed No1c2,429$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52f9…e1c7backed No9c2,365$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20212152.9%64 W · 57 L+12.9wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+23.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes75c2,317$1,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.8117931.3%56 W · 123 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc314…fbdcbacked No1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd51b…dbaabacked No1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+31.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x11ae…c4c8backed No1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c5d…0049backed No1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2a2…0daabacked No1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed No1c1,985$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7323839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked No18c1,880$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.1940939.6%162 W · 247 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x79eb…f471backed No18c1,847$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.712250%11 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+4.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x766b…e4ffbacked No61c1,789$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-48.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe67d…8180backed No3c1,701$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+66.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No13c1,643$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.7789617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf245…1df4backed No7c1,490$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.56940.6%28 W · 41 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-14%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f5e…ddaabacked No14c1,395$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2007632.9%25 W · 51 L+0.2wins0.00per pick33cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Yes75c1,150$859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.492445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x942b…e25ebacked No32c1,148$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.022920.7%6 W · 23 L-5.1wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-37%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4fd2…943bbacked No2c1,123$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232920.7%6 W · 23 L-3.4wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-30.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No14c1,073$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.0577636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9da7…916cbacked No3c1,071$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes76c1,064$813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.066549.2%32 W · 33 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d3e…eec6backed No15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.