TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x942b…e25e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
98
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 56 out of 100; worst Middle East at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT2920.7%6 W · 23 L-5.1wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-37%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
Middle East — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$240
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$309Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$309.49
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$473Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$472.8
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$105
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$81.5
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$115.09
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.95
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$96.04
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$69.37
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$80.56
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+455.6%+$246
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+79.9%+$53.29
20+ trapped Hamas fighters allowed to leave in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$38.4
Will Hezbollah disarm in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$443Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+32.9%+$145.56
Israel parliament dissolved in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$315Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+39.6%+$124.68
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Israel x Syria security agreement by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$182Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$182.47
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$35
Will Israel strike 3 countries in November 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$13
Will Israel strike 1 country in November 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+163%+$121.45
Will Israel allow independent journalists into Gaza by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$371Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$371.02
Israel strikes Gaza by October 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$354Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$353.83
Will Trump say "Bibi" 3+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$51.3
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$236Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$236.2
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST2123.8%5 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-47.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
NFL — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Matt LaFleur win NFL Coach of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$477Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$476.7
Will the Green Bay Packers win 10 or more regular season games?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$27.89
Will the Green Bay Packers make the playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$101.82
Spread: Packers (-6.5)backed Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+85.2%+$92
Bears vs. Packersbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$44.84
Bears vs. Packers: O/U 44.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+96.1%+$98
Bears vs. Packers: 1H Moneylinebacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$38.5
Spread: Lions (-2.5)backed Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST+112.8%+$71.55
Packers vs. Lions: O/U 48.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$177Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$176.99
Spread: Packers (-6.5)backed Vikings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$153.38
Packers vs. Giantsbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$32.5
Spread: Packers (-7.5)backed Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$125.76
Packers vs. Giants: O/U 43.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$35.13
Eagles vs. Packers: O/U 44.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+100%+$150
Spread: Packers (-7.5)backed Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$72
Vikings vs. Brownsbacked Browns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.2
Packers vs. Cowboys: O/U 44.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$46
Browns vs. Lionsbacked Browns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$57
Eagles vs. Buccaneersbacked Buccaneers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.5
Lions vs. Ravensbacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT+213.3%+$105.53
All 21 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+20.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+26.6%+$52.5
Will Zohran Mamdani win by >9%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$199.9
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$201Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+123.9%+$249
Will the government shutdown end November 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$264Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+129.4%+$341.32
U.S. Closes Airspace due to Government Shutdown?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$218Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+32.7%+$71.28
Will the government shutdown end November 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$521Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$521.13
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST+47.1%+$32
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Next Mayor" during his victory/concession speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+132.6%+$83.6
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Cuomo" 2+ times during his victory/concession speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$52.49
Current shutdown longest in U.S. history?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$178Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+40.8%+$72.56
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Muslim" or "Islam" during his victory/concession speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$344Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+45.3%+$156
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Immigrant" during his victory/concession speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$192Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+30.3%+$58.14
Will the Government shutdown end October 23-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.46
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Israel in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$9
All 14 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT1241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Antony Barran advance to the general election for WA-03?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+84.3%+$23.33
Will Toby Doeden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$141Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+53.3%+$75.16
Will Larry Rhoden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$152.1
Will Katie Porter advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.2
Will Zach Wahls be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.8
Will Billy Mawhiney be the Democratic Nominee for SD-AL?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$14.5
Will Daniel Cameron be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.52
Will Andy Barr be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+154.9%+$177.41
Will Don Tracy be the Republican nominee for Senate in Illinois?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2026 Texas Senate Democratic Primary Election and lose the 2026 Texas Senate General Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$93.89
Will Curtis Sliwa get less than 10% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+451.7%+$143.93
Will Curtis Sliwa get between 10% and 13% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$38.3
All 12 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-50.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-33.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Space — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+28.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.5
Will Israel participate in Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST+157.4%+$91.72
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 26, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the January 2026 FOMC decision result in no change with ≥2 dissents?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+117.4%+$27
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
FC Barcelona vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+63.9%+$13.65
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Jan 22, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: SC Freiburg (-2.5)backed MH Maccabi Tel Aviv · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+53.8%+$14
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Oct 18, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$66.44
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jan 30, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $280 end of January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$25
All 1 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Jan 23, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
CA Independiente vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$17.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NYC have less than 3 inches of precipitation in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$13.04
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.