La Liga · resolved market
FC Barcelona vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e1ea55e79a6e53981486c62382bbbfdd6407e01591980193911a1dce9fcdedc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,756
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,616
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,756 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed07…886abacked Under | 62c | 10,000$6,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,799.98 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5f…4b52backed Under | 74c | 7,088$5,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,842.86 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked Over | 7c | 5,699$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.95 | 601 | 47.9%288 W · 313 L | +50.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 39c | 5,000$1,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,950 | 304 | 46.7%142 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 39c | 3,479$1,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,356.93 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda1…8cd6backed Over | 41c | 3,425$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Under | 59c | 3,041$1,794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,247 | 126 | 48.4%61 W · 65 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 78c | 2,821$2,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.41 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 40c | 2,500$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.91 | 532 | 46.1%245 W · 287 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 60c | 2,124$1,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.01 | 2,343 | 48.5%1,137 W · 1,206 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7205…3377backed Over | 11c | 1,900$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Over | 37c | 1,612$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.35 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee4…9f0cbacked Under | 63c | 1,587$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Under | 63c | 1,498$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.41 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 38c | 1,300$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494 | 640 | 46.9%300 W · 340 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 37c | 1,032$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.68 | 504 | 49.8%251 W · 253 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 8c | 998.15$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.85 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 19c | 899.98$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 616 | 57.8%356 W · 260 L | +42.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…58c7backed Over | 39c | 728.74$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 20c | 707.99$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.28 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 15c | 660$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 138 | 24.6%34 W · 104 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Under | 63c | 634.92$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.92 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 62c | 600$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 342 | 52%178 W · 164 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc490…6507backed Over | 33c | 580$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.6 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 61c | 500$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.75 | 428 | 51.4%220 W · 208 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bf…762dbacked Under | 62c | 500$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 28c | 414.11$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.79 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 61c | 400$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…5fbbbacked Over | 31c | 393.08$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.35 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Under | 60c | 366.25$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.4 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacb5…d643backed Under | 63c | 341.93$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.51 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…c097backed Over | 38c | 330.37$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.54 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Under | 61c | 315.35$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.99 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b27…a815backed Over | 38c | 303.42$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa47f…dfb1backed Over | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 114 | 44.7%51 W · 63 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc57…ce1ebacked Over | 38c | 261.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 71c | 247.18$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.13 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Over | 38c | 231$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.78 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 38c | 208$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.04 | 335 | 44.2%148 W · 187 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 49c | 203.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 424 | 58%246 W · 178 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd573…f99ebacked Over | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Under | 76c | 197.37$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.37 | 64 | 78.1%50 W · 14 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…699abacked Under | 62c | 184.39$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.23 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 62c | 181$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.78 | 351 | 48.4%170 W · 181 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Under | 60c | 174.12$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.5 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Over | 38c | 171.25$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.08 | 204 | 52.5%107 W · 97 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Over | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc900…4557backed Over | 16c | 133.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Under | 62c | 123.81$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.6 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 39c | 116.87$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 161 | 49.7%80 W · 81 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 76c | 109.63$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 231 | 52.8%122 W · 109 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61b6…a62fbacked Over | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 153 | 44.4%68 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa237…d59abacked Under | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 62c | 97.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.07 | 321 | 45.8%147 W · 174 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Under | 63c | 95.32$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Under | 62c | 80.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 38c | 79.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Over | 38c | 64.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Over | 38c | 59.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 307 | 49.2%151 W · 156 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Over | 36c | 53.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 262 | 42.7%112 W · 150 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc119…7d4dbacked Over | 38c | 52.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 324 | 44.8%145 W · 179 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc884…a4e6backed Under | 62c | 52.38$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 127 | 27.6%35 W · 92 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Over | 39c | 44.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 69 | 62.3%43 W · 26 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d2…d94cbacked Under | 62c | 42.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 35c | 39.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 129 | 25.6%33 W · 96 L | -9.7wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942b…e25ebacked Under | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Over | 40c | 34.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cf52backed Under | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942b…bef0backed Under | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f0…df87backed Under | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffc…4487backed Under | 62c | 32.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a3…b461backed Over | 38c | 30.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Under | 62c | 28.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…c258backed Under | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…3bb0backed Under | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5649…99adbacked Under | 63c | 22.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 74c | 21.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 572 | 52.1%298 W · 274 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Barcelona vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 4.5this page
- FC Barcelona vs. Real Oviedo: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Barcelona vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Barcelona vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Barcelona vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.