TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

U.S. Closes Airspace due to Government Shutdown?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$340,906
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$314,306

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $340,906 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 456 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6c07…48d9backed Yes4c21,551$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$835.53650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes19c18,212$3,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,495.6518425%46 W · 138 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes4c16,605$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.6833313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes10c6,970$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$718.2332626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4919…067ebacked Yes19c5,176$958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$957.99560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked Yes40c5,001$2,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,002.434542.2%19 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe95c…01efbacked No64c4,954$3,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,786.03850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c16…dd84backed Yes27c4,446$1,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,194.422142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd482…355dbacked Yes5c3,434$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.941822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-47.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c72…dfb6backed No52c3,000$1,559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,441.243839.5%15 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick45cpaid+30.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes29c2,859$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840.514528.3%41 W · 104 L+11.0wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+15.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No74c2,750$2,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708.71560%9 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9bfc…91b6backed No74c2,487$1,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655.39450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+25.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0da…1f3cbacked Yes4c2,480$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick11cpaid+63.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes4c2,346$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.121428.5%12 W · 130 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d0c…5839backed No73c2,324$1,692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed Yes29c2,189$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.1110834.3%37 W · 71 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes16c2,161$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.41195.3%1 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick13cpaid-93.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes2c2,160$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.63931.1%1 W · 92 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-94.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a8…fb82backed Yes19c2,079$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.43911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-73.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes30c2,014$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.018419%16 W · 68 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-35.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfee…64bbbacked No71c1,940$1,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571.71233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-50.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x67a7…1facbacked Yes4c1,935$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick10cpaid-44.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c7b…2a87backed Yes3c1,884$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.49933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick15cpaid+95.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb911…a649backed Yes6c1,881$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.052326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-34.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a44…9d20backed No70c1,858$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.522100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x312c…e23ebacked Yes35c1,806$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.8140%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes16c1,786$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.3996319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8979…f003backed Yes46c1,734$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.96666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes34c1,700$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.3541238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd486…2287backed Yes3c1,622$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.42933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x919e…d915backed Yes41c1,614$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.533218.8%6 W · 26 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-55.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes16c1,560$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.95366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick37cpaid+59.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6993…c79abacked Yes1c1,554$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.82190%0 W · 19 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes11c1,483$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.491,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc451…2609backed No73c1,467$1,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.18250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes23c1,464$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34310630.2%32 W · 74 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+57.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes1c1,450$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.513216.7%22 W · 110 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid+19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd99f…3983backed Yes26c1,286$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.0430%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x77a4…c84fbacked Yes24c1,263$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.722729.6%8 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-17.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8063…b886backed Yes22c1,256$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.82837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+80%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3069…f8efbacked No53c1,189$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.496354%34 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd4…194bbacked No75c1,164$873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.091662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-5.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8867…4ae5backed Yes3c1,159$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+28%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes37c1,155$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.4713341.4%55 W · 78 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe362…bd00backed No77c1,084$837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.05850%4 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x91fc…0109backed Yes33c1,069$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.173351.5%17 W · 16 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x41a4…1c0abacked Yes22c1,063$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85da…13b9backed Yes29c1,057$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.1980%0 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes29c1,000$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.7215032.7%49 W · 101 L+7.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-17.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x662a…77b7backed Yes24c1,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x993f…3ee3backed Yes27c1,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2702951.7%15 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-0.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd748…2125backed No73c979.23$716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.82657.7%15 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06ad…bb1bbacked Yes10c911.68$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5c8…de9ebacked Yes34c895.23$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbef…4cd2backed Yes3c890.39$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.54333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick12cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9ad…79d0backed No72c817.65$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.443336.4%12 W · 21 L-6.0wins-0.18per pick55cpaid-43.4%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xf425…9f04backed Yes4c816.15$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe9d9…5670backed Yes25c800$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+35.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30b2…9e25backed Yes10c783.01$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.255129.4%15 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15fb…252dbacked Yes40c769.25$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.71136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-34.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2257…31adbacked Yes27c748.64$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f31…83cfbacked Yes3c735.1$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9350%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf6f1…30a8backed Yes45c708.08$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No72c700.84$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.4899629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed Yes46c691.3$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.246546.2%30 W · 35 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+29.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7774…15d4backed Yes58c686.92$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f61…bb12backed Yes2c600$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.71127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+70.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd399…d13ebacked Yes47c600$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+63.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc47d…8688backed Yes31c599.99$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8005…abc0backed Yes39c599.99$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.1425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-60.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes24c596.39$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.942839.3%11 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x980a…8ccbbacked Yes35c595.81$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.21435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab3d…5c70backed Yes20c589.74$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x290f…7e47backed No62c578.69$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.11250%6 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes17c552.4$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.711010%11 W · 99 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-32%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f5e…ddaabacked Yes64c550.68$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3502035%7 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-37.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x506f…e8bbbacked No77c549.97$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.192445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-19.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b78…2637backed Yes3c510.08$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-76.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No71c500.36$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.194738.3%18 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes47c500.13$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.35343.4%23 W · 30 L+6.3wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+27.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Yes23c500$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1155832.8%19 W · 39 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x338e…646ebacked Yes3c500$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1390%0 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b54…bac5backed Yes3c500$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-60.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96df…1f97backed No75c500$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1251145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Yes24c499.96$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.992937.9%11 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-29.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x22cd…21c3backed Yes24c495.92$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4aa0…bfc0backed Yes5c494.13$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-68.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes2c494.13$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8637844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x357e…2a0cbacked No71c491.52$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.952157.1%12 W · 9 L+4.0wins+0.19per pick38cpaid+72.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x809a…3757backed Yes70c488.19$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.72425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-61.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe7c…ba39backed No80c481.23$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes23c480.4$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.2618445.1%83 W · 101 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5697…c7bebacked Yes21c478.45$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-31.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe8a…cfadbacked Yes13c473.55$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.79850%4 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0060…4cc4backed Yes7c456.04$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301625%4 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-47.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb9a4…996dbacked No69c439.82$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.822035%7 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-45%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x82bd…335ebacked Yes46c419.48$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.1250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes32c409.99$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.219435.1%68 W · 126 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x007f…e3adbacked No78c402.37$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.382100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.