Us Politics · resolved market
U.S. Closes Airspace due to Government Shutdown?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90abec0bd6eb90ba45387460f7762a2059e2d1c606d46ff767d6938fd6d55289
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $340,906
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $314,306
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $340,906 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 456 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c07…48d9backed Yes | 4c | 21,551$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.53 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 19c | 18,212$3,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,495.65 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 16,605$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.68 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 10c | 6,970$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.23 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…067ebacked Yes | 19c | 5,176$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 40c | 5,001$2,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,002.43 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe95c…01efbacked No | 64c | 4,954$3,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,786.03 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…dd84backed Yes | 27c | 4,446$1,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,194.42 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd482…355dbacked Yes | 5c | 3,434$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.94 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed No | 52c | 3,000$1,559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,441.24 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 29c | 2,859$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.5 | 145 | 28.3%41 W · 104 L | +11.0wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 74c | 2,750$2,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.7 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfc…91b6backed No | 74c | 2,487$1,832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…1f3cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,480$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 2,346$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.12 | 142 | 8.5%12 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…5839backed No | 73c | 2,324$1,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 29c | 2,189$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.11 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 16c | 2,161$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.41 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -93.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 2,160$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 93 | 1.1%1 W · 92 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -94.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…fb82backed Yes | 19c | 2,079$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.43 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 30c | 2,014$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.01 | 84 | 19%16 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfee…64bbbacked No | 71c | 1,940$1,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.7 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67a7…1facbacked Yes | 4c | 1,935$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7b…2a87backed Yes | 3c | 1,884$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…a649backed Yes | 6c | 1,881$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.05 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a44…9d20backed No | 70c | 1,858$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312c…e23ebacked Yes | 35c | 1,806$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.81 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 1,786$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.39 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8979…f003backed Yes | 46c | 1,734$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.96 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 34c | 1,700$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.35 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd486…2287backed Yes | 3c | 1,622$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.42 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x919e…d915backed Yes | 41c | 1,614$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.53 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 16c | 1,560$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…c79abacked Yes | 1c | 1,554$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 1,483$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.49 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc451…2609backed No | 73c | 1,467$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 23c | 1,464$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,450$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 132 | 16.7%22 W · 110 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd99f…3983backed Yes | 26c | 1,286$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77a4…c84fbacked Yes | 24c | 1,263$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.72 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8063…b886backed Yes | 22c | 1,256$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.82 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +80%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked No | 53c | 1,189$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.49 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd4…194bbacked No | 75c | 1,164$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.09 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8867…4ae5backed Yes | 3c | 1,159$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 37c | 1,155$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.47 | 133 | 41.4%55 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…bd00backed No | 77c | 1,084$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.05 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91fc…0109backed Yes | 33c | 1,069$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.17 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41a4…1c0abacked Yes | 22c | 1,063$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85da…13b9backed Yes | 29c | 1,057$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.19 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.72 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x662a…77b7backed Yes | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…3ee3backed Yes | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd748…2125backed No | 73c | 979.23$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.8 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ad…bb1bbacked Yes | 10c | 911.68$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c8…de9ebacked Yes | 34c | 895.23$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbef…4cd2backed Yes | 3c | 890.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ad…79d0backed No | 72c | 817.65$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.44 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -6.0wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf425…9f04backed Yes | 4c | 816.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d9…5670backed Yes | 25c | 800$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed Yes | 10c | 783.01$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.25 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15fb…252dbacked Yes | 40c | 769.25$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.7 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2257…31adbacked Yes | 27c | 748.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f31…83cfbacked Yes | 3c | 735.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…30a8backed Yes | 45c | 708.08$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 72c | 700.84$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.48 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 46c | 691.3$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.24 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7774…15d4backed Yes | 58c | 686.92$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f61…bb12backed Yes | 2c | 600$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…d13ebacked Yes | 47c | 600$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc47d…8688backed Yes | 31c | 599.99$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8005…abc0backed Yes | 39c | 599.99$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 24c | 596.39$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.94 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x980a…8ccbbacked Yes | 35c | 595.81$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.2 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab3d…5c70backed Yes | 20c | 589.74$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x290f…7e47backed No | 62c | 578.69$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.1 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 17c | 552.4$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.7 | 110 | 10%11 W · 99 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ddaabacked Yes | 64c | 550.68$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked No | 77c | 549.97$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.19 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b78…2637backed Yes | 3c | 510.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 71c | 500.36$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.19 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 47c | 500.13$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.3 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x338e…646ebacked Yes | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b54…bac5backed Yes | 3c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…1f97backed No | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Yes | 24c | 499.96$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22cd…21c3backed Yes | 24c | 495.92$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa0…bfc0backed Yes | 5c | 494.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 2c | 494.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked No | 71c | 491.52$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.95 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x809a…3757backed Yes | 70c | 488.19$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7c…ba39backed No | 80c | 481.23$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 23c | 480.4$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.26 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5697…c7bebacked Yes | 21c | 478.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…cfadbacked Yes | 13c | 473.55$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.79 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0060…4cc4backed Yes | 7c | 456.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a4…996dbacked No | 69c | 439.82$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.82 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82bd…335ebacked Yes | 46c | 419.48$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 32c | 409.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.2 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x007f…e3adbacked No | 78c | 402.37$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.