TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe362…bd00

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
118
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Weather, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category Weather at 60 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 39.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT2412.5%3 W · 21 L-4.8wins-0.20per pick32cpaid-77.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$143
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.25
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$31
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$64
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.5
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$27
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the France vs Iraq FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$719Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$718.55
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Norway Vs Senegal FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$508Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$508.2
Will the announcers say "Hattrick / Hat Trick" during the Norway Vs Senegal FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+60.4%+$19.34
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Argentina vs Austria FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+100%+$50
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Argentina vs Austria FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.81
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.67
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.6
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.75
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$83.55
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$86
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.67
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$192Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+85%+$163.36
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$295Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$295
All 24 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT1540%6 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-26.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$271Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$270.79
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+233.2%+$201.42
Will Jensen Huang say "Anthropic" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$491Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$491.12
Will "Woke" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$27.82
Will "Dario" or "Amodei" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+42.3%+$35.7
Will Trump say "Stock" or "401(k)" or "Roof" during tech signing event on Wednesday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+25.2%+$16.75
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$9,470Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+62.5%+$5,914.21
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$19.27
Elon no longer world's richest before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$3,230Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+96.2%+$3,106.06
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$124.31
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$326Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$325.68
Will Jimmy Kimmel rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$574Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$573.9
Will Pope Leo XIV rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$93
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$2,830Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2025, EDT+48.1%+$1,360.41
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$71.76
All 15 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2026, EDT1353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+48.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+809.1%+$890
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$2,710Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+26.1%+$707.97
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$180
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$630Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$630.3
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$86.02
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,496Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+48.2%+$721.26
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$384Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+70.6%+$271.35
Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$568Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+26%+$147.74
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+124.9%+$34.2
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$111
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$90
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$11.84
Will the US next strike Iran on January 31, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$73.21
All 13 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT1172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+31%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Commodities — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+300%+$58.64
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$213Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$87
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$3,243Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,243.08
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$729Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+37.1%+$270.82
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$12.04
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$561Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+78.4%+$439.6
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$17,726Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+27.7%+$4,906.91
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$175Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+46.8%+$81.99
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$934Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+80.2%+$748.75
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by March 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.97
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by March 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.97
All 11 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 9, 2026, EDT875%6 W · 2 L+3.1wins+0.39per pick36cpaid+222.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
Weather — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+183.4%+$53.41
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 7 be between 80 and 90?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+100%+$20
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 7 be between 70 and 80?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+55.2%+$33.74
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 6 be between 60 and 70?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$11
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 6 be between 70 and 80?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+216.3%+$44.45
Will 1550 to 1599 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+612.8%+$303.77
Will fewer than 1550 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+809.1%+$268.66
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 57-58°F on November 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$12.86
All 8 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST850%4 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick32cpaid-82.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$951Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+37%+$351.88
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$98.01
Trump drops Powell investigation by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$75.84
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$55.92
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$12,172Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$12,172.21
Will Powell say "Tariff inflation" during December press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$10.2
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$101.68
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$231Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$230.76
All 8 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 27, 2025, EST540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Clippers vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$33.06
Celtics vs. Pacersbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST+53.8%+$25.25
Warriors vs. Trail Blazersbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$72
Lakers vs. Sunsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST+96.1%+$98
Magic vs. Knicksbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$97.5
All 5 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-26.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Caranobacked Carano · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.8
Will Elon Musk attend a UFC event by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$199.38
All 2 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+225.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+225.7%+$69.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$190Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$310
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Brazil record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$185Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+101.8%+$187.74
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jan 30, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 end of January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$288Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$287.98
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$312Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$312.17
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Oct 22, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$221Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$220.85
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.