IPO · resolved market
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb495d8fa96e5693b13b404650807b19ded6d38732a2e495ea018bf26db6156c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,138
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,307
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,138 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa992…cdb9backed No | 75c | 7,974$5,953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,020.37 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 5,111$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.53 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 48c | 4,000$1,938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,938 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb45…b5d6backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…c770backed No | 3c | 2,996$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,901.98 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +202.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfa…b608backed Yes | 24c | 1,476$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,357$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.49 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6627…000cbacked Yes | 15c | 1,271$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc20e…0a5ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,268$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55be…fb40backed Yes | 1c | 1,220$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd590…5eeebacked No | 3c | 1,181$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +938.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 30c | 1,120$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.98 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2461…f240backed Yes | 32c | 1,099$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 34c | 1,081$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.97 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked Yes | 18c | 1,018$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d5…9925backed No | 77c | 958.63$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes | 28c | 892.11$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.75 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 5c | 853.95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed Yes | 78c | 848.79$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd026…ec2fbacked Yes | 36c | 833.18$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…3d6ebacked Yes | 30c | 786.88$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7a…b987backed Yes | 38c | 780$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ce…8417backed Yes | 1c | 713.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 20c | 597.8$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.71 | 92 | 15.2%14 W · 78 L | -16.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…bd00backed Yes | 57c | 551.02$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 23c | 483.1$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.48 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 64c | 403.98$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.38 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 12c | 401.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c3…cf5cbacked Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…149bbacked No | 62c | 386.81$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.39 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe884…d6cdbacked Yes | 30c | 332.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0025…6ca8backed Yes | 24c | 205.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x632c…06cbbacked Yes | 38c | 187.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 26c | 182.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 75c | 149$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.83 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07bc…b413backed Yes | 36c | 143.95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x119d…bec3backed Yes | 39c | 142.36$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4325…aa54backed Yes | 29c | 134.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bf…3884backed Yes | 23c | 129.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d4…f99ebacked Yes | 23c | 127.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24e…f31ebacked Yes | 21c | 127.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505e…61d1backed Yes | 26c | 116.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 66c | 108.91$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7944…ee79backed Yes | 13c | 105.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e26…3edfbacked Yes | 29c | 104.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3d…8554backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1923…ef8ebacked No | 75c | 99.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf3…d859backed Yes | 32c | 93.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 82.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | -8.1wins | -0.20per pick | 25cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 74c | 80.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 69c | 60.62$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 32 | 93.8%30 W · 2 L | +6.6wins | +0.21per pick | 73cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4131…d591backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c1…16c0backed Yes | 34c | 57.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 68c | 54.47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc676…f35cbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 24c | 46.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 63 | 27%17 W · 46 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb706…5dbcbacked No | 68c | 43.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 28c | 41.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…bff4backed No | 67c | 40.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff8…ff51backed Yes | 38c | 39.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa794…42adbacked No | 75c | 34.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bb…bdb8backed Yes | 30c | 32.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc00…8262backed No | 65c | 30.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 50c | 27.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 73c | 26.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.20per pick | 46cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf7…1a02backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed Yes | 66c | 18.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…584cbacked No | 77c | 15.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0214…799bbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b2…da22backed Yes | 78c | 13.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?this page
- Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Barron Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Bret Johnsen be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?Yes won
- Will Brian Bjelde be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Grimes be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Gwynne Shotwell be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?Yes won
- Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Kimbal Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Luke Nosek be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?Yes won
- Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Shivon Zilis be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Steve Jurvetson be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?Yes won
- Will X Æ A-Xii be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.