IPO · resolved market
Will Brian Bjelde be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33194e09cc8f4b1d37773ce685505ed8c2890b9a296bde49acdb6a0f7c641c19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,638
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,319
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,638 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes | 41c | 495$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.34 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 11c | 413.62$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…7d34backed Yes | 50c | 411.97$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…3e2bbacked No | 36c | 338.48$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 59c | 305.2$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.48 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 64c | 299.99$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 26c | 254$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.52 | 116 | 34.5%40 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 17c | 186.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 52c | 185.52$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.38 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 56c | 180$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 49c | 120$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.5wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…dcf7backed No | 52c | 116.13$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.28 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…67a5backed No | 45c | 114$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…806ebacked Yes | 40c | 110$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0962…71e4backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 49c | 84.34$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 45c | 84.14$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.28 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed No | 75c | 80$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 76c | 78$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d50…a4c1backed No | 76c | 60$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x023d…3431backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…fcffbacked Yes | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 56c | 59.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 36c | 56.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 63 | 27%17 W · 46 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 39c | 55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc31…3fe8backed Yes | 37c | 54.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fd…15a0backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 64c | 40.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e13…e968backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x734b…2a2cbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 60c | 34.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…53abbacked Yes | 40c | 29.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 58c | 29.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 79c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a2…c0c5backed Yes | 45c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73c1…28f3backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 69c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c71…9338backed No | 61c | 20.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…ee64backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd8…1de3backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -59%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf076…1302backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…33e2backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0457…9828backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecf…20d7backed No | 60c | 18.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Brian Bjelde be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?this page
- Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Barron Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Bret Johnsen be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Grimes be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Gwynne Shotwell be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?Yes won
- Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Kimbal Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Luke Nosek be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?Yes won
- Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Shivon Zilis be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Steve Jurvetson be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?Yes won
- Will X Æ A-Xii be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.