IPO · resolved market
Will X Æ A-Xii be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a6ccf163a060a0fa74550ffc32942bef0b91e6b1bb211c338f82490e478c6e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,847
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,212
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,847 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa992…cdb9backed No | 78c | 3,193$2,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.3 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes | 40c | 2,152$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.41 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 54c | 1,353$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.94 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 63c | 899.99$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 889$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 55c | 662.39$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.22 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 17c | 505.29$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.46 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f1…c96ebacked Yes | 11c | 436.29$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 12c | 431.57$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.79 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 62c | 422$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.36 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x517b…be02backed Yes | 36c | 411.11$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 64c | 402.41$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed Yes | 36c | 355.19$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.87 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 63c | 300$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 33c | 270.4$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 62c | 261$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.18 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 62c | 250$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 37cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…822abacked No | 77c | 177.41$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.41 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e27…1c22backed Yes | 36c | 175.29$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 58c | 167$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.65 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | -8.1wins | -0.20per pick | 25cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 18c | 160.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 92 | 15.2%14 W · 78 L | -16.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 64c | 157.34$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.64 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd482…355dbacked Yes | 11c | 140$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed No | 43c | 116.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.27 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4131…d591backed Yes | 13c | 108.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd8…1de3backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -59%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x123d…1cabbacked Yes | 32c | 92.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 90.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 67c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.5wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2f…b23ebacked No | 63c | 72.83$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 20c | 66.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…149bbacked No | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d6…e3edbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd0…dd03backed Yes | 29c | 55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafe2…b686backed No | 66c | 55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 30c | 48.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 36c | 47.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 23c | 47.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 38c | 45.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 63 | 27%17 W · 46 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 62c | 44.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -5.9wins | -0.37per pick | 43cpaid | -92%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 41c | 44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…ce76backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76b…8a50backed Yes | 34c | 37.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x260b…aa9ebacked Yes | 55c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…4972backed No | 62c | 32.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Yes | 38c | 29.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 64c | 22.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f23…441fbacked No | 57c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff1…1be9backed No | 71c | 20.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a2…c0c5backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf136…275fbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…dcf7backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…9065backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1b…8306backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa425…1d81backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0457…9828backed No | 64c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will X Æ A-Xii be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?this page
- Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Barron Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Bret Johnsen be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?Yes won
- Will Brian Bjelde be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Grimes be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Gwynne Shotwell be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?Yes won
- Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Kimbal Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Luke Nosek be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?Yes won
- Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Shivon Zilis be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No won
- Will Steve Jurvetson be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.