TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x4131…d591

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
336
Categories scored
26
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Golf, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Golf at 54 out of 100; worst Middle East at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 5, 2026, EDT14650.7%74 W · 72 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 146 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James sign his next NBA contract on July 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$212Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+26.7%+$56.59
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$23.73
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$32.7
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$74.07
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$29
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$65.63
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.5
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.5
Cavaliers vs. Knicksbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+201.7%+$68.58
Spurs vs. Timberwolvesbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$22.67
Pistons vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.05
Cavaliers vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$44
Timberwolves vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$12.41
Spurs vs. Timberwolvesbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$58
Thunder vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
Pistons vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$145Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$88.87
Spurs vs. Timberwolvesbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$37.35
Knicks vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.5
Cavaliers vs. Pistonsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.5
Timberwolves vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$20.45
76ers vs. Knicksbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.5
Showing 25 of 146 picks, newest first.
Fifa Internationallast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT5125.5%13 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-50.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 51 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Luan Santana attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.89
Will Nininho Vaz Maia attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.94
Will Rio Ferdinand attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.2
Will Jorge Jesus attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.9
Will Edu Aguirre attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.2
Will the announcers say "Goal" 75+ times during the Argentina vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.5
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.2
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Like a Prayer be the first song performed by Madonna at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$269Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$268.71
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.6
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Will United States win on 2026-07-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Exact Score: Any Other Score?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 England?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Mexico vs. England: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+63.8%+$86.15
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.5
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg" or "Nutmegs" during the Canada vs Morocco FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$42.35
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Algeria?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.5
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Algeria?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.5
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Croatia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.5
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 Croatia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.5
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Austria?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.5
Showing 25 of 51 picks, newest first.
Weatherlast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT3040%12 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+35.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tropical Storm Lala make landfall in Hawaii as a hurricane?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+25.4%+$26.2
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.23
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.66
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$74.64
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on July 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.17
Columbus Air Quality Index below 100 by July 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$147Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+36.1%+$53.02
NYC Air Quality Index below 100 by July 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$7.44
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on July 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.39
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on July 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+903.8%+$92.74
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on July 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+961%+$119.45
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.74
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on July 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$181Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+232%+$420.36
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on July 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$188.52
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$338Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$337.51
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on July 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$85.66
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.57
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.19
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on July 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+175.5%+$43.43
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.49
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$41.8
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$265Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$264.57
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$4.68
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.17
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$12.25
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT1533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Eliott Rodriguez be the FL-27 Democratic nominee?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.88
Will Christopher Taylor be the Democratic nominee for the Ann Arbor Mayoral Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+213.4%+$229.48
Will Phil Weiser win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by less than 5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.2
Will Phil Weiser win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by 5–10%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.94
Will Graham Platner win between 70% and 75% of votes in the Maine Senate Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+231.5%+$157.12
Will Graham Platner win less than 65% of votes in the Maine Senate Democratic Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$4.2
Will Pamela Evette win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Runoff by 5–10%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+37%+$7.28
Will Glenn Ivey be the Democratic nominee for MD-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.69
Will Pamela Evette win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary by less than 5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$177Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+244.1%+$432.15
Will Alan Wilson win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary by less than 5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.56
Will Pamela Evette win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary by 5–10%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.21
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 10% and 15%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.61
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 15% and 20%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.29
Will Alan Wilson win the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.9
Will Robert Menendez Jr. be the Democratic nominee for NJ-08?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.1
All 15 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 24, 2026, EDT1250%6 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on July 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.92
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on July 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.11
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$321Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+158.5%+$508.9
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$472Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+278.9%+$1,315.28
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.80 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$41
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 Week of June 15 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.4
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$87.6
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of May 18 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.38
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on May 19?backed Up · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$15.33
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on May 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.76
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on May 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.62
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $105 on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$133Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$57
All 12 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 17, 2026, EDT1118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick35cpaid+307.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+4,130.8%+$1,181.62
Iran successfully targets shipping by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.52
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$93.91
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$123.98
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+150%+$18
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by June 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$39
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.59
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.6
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.71
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$292Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$292
All 11 picks, newest first.
AIlast resolved Aug 15, 2026, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick44cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Google Gemini Flash model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.34
Will the next Google Gemini Flash model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$141Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+115.5%+$162.53
Will the next Google Gemini Flash model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$201Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+25.5%+$51.27
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$168Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+54.8%+$91.83
Grok 4.4 released by July 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.55
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+96%+$100.04
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$189.06
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.66
Will Broadcom Q2 AI revenue be above $11.5B?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+80.6%+$64.7
All 9 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+30.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$18
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+61.3%+$12.26
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+66.7%+$13.33
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+244.8%+$48.97
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-11-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+42.9%+$8.57
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will Tottenham vs. Manchester United end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST+257.1%+$51.43
All 9 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved May 26, 2026, EDT812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick24cpaid-82.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.07
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.35
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.03
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$70.35
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$42.7
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$16.4
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+41.1%+$27.03
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$36.7
All 8 picks, newest first.
IPOlast resolved Aug 15, 2026, EDT80%0 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
IPO — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.07
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$279.78
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$461Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$460.85
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $850B by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.65
Will X Æ A-Xii be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.02
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.12
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $70B and $80B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.9
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $90B and $100B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.2
All 8 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-27.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Jul 16, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Lol — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 30, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Valorant Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid+30.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Valorant — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Shopify Rebellion Black Win North America ACE Stage 3backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+292.2%+$74.5
Games Total: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$123.39
Games Total: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.7
All 3 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick52cpaid+94.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Golf — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-15.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Poker Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Poker — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Poker, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Musiclast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Pokrovka by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+143.1%+$38.85
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 49.0 and 49.9 in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+43.3%+$8.77
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jung Hoo Lee be traded by the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$282Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+25.3%+$71.41
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jul 25, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Over $30M committed to the RipCars public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.29
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.