Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20159fc734112adcef49f14ea98209f9601143a1ebef339adfae438d0eb21f79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,984
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,953
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,984 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 57c | 557.68$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.88 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4131…d591backed Yes | 57c | 460.3$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.57 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x367c…8689backed Yes | 25c | 265.86$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…db62backed No | 75c | 257.96$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…1f70backed Yes | 29c | 213$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.8 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 71c | 209.41$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 13c | 185.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcc…8d7ebacked Yes | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…9c58backed Yes | 70c | 145.56$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.89 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 61c | 131.45$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.9 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 34c | 123.75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 116.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 19c | 116$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 18c | 111.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 44c | 110$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8867…7683backed Yes | 73c | 99.2$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.42 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 64c | 97.86$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.44 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 72c | 78.17$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.28 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 73c | 76.85$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…31b5backed No | 48c | 72.54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 95 | 36.8%35 W · 60 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 72c | 68.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.31 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3d…d3e9backed Yes | 75c | 67.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 79 | 68.4%54 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 28c | 64.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 52c | 57.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 75c | 55.25$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 70c | 53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 77c | 52.74$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xede3…e3f2backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc030…1398backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e20…6c61backed No | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55f8…2e76backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 69c | 29.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 67c | 27.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 78c | 23.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 73c | 20.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c80…e07dbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed No | 79c | 14.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 22?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 22?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.