TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Christopher Taylor be the Democratic nominee for the Ann Arbor Mayoral Election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,272
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,254

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,272 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa58d…b9b8backed No37c1,671$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,056.2418026.1%47 W · 133 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes56c771.47$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.5134333.5%115 W · 228 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes54c430.73$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.9421161.1%129 W · 82 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x99f3…87ebbacked Yes71c420$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c74…c5e3backed Yes31c388.82$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.643661.1%22 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes65c380.22$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.318831.8%28 W · 60 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-29.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes66c346.89$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.61378.1%3 W · 34 L-5.0wins-0.13per pick22cpaid-86.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4131…d591backed No32c337$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.481533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No32c315$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.158740.2%35 W · 52 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No34c311.9$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.1810739.3%42 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb14…bd17backed Yes67c305.42$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.642245.5%10 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-28%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x714f…66d5backed No27c304.84$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.533116.1%5 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-40.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes65c300$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19631534%107 W · 208 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-33.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No38c205.26$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.413143.5%57 W · 74 L+0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4174…04a2backed No48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1041100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked No49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10222833.8%77 W · 151 L+13.7wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+52.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2102…7c3bbacked No44c198.79$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.522100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+77.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes64c185.02$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.111520%3 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-37.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No35c183.54$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.639343%40 W · 53 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No32c181$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.2512545.6%57 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes54c180.14$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.6419631.1%61 W · 135 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes49c166.08$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.416235.5%22 W · 40 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed Yes65c150$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.51533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-41.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No34c147.82$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.7410722.4%24 W · 83 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-20.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No39c142.87$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.544850%24 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No33c131.19$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.4466914.8%99 W · 570 L-105.6wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-66%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked Yes63c122$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.868541.2%35 W · 50 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x51f2…38efbacked Yes64c112.44$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.384330.2%13 W · 30 L-7.0wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-51.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked No34c109.06$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.4616544.2%73 W · 92 L+10.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xda30…74dbbacked No37c103.82$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+167.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x39a5…87f2backed Yes50c102.04$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.028638.4%33 W · 53 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadd5…ce89backed No28c100$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+156.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d66…7851backed Yes63c97.05$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No30c96.36$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.4513317.3%23 W · 110 L-10.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd276…b615backed Yes62c96$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No34c92$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.1310947.7%52 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c04…c81abacked No35c90$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5529…e5b9backed Yes64c89.25$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.2622948.9%112 W · 117 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No35c80.2$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.949511.5%57 W · 438 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed No47c78.9$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.918258.5%48 W · 34 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes65c76.88$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9712330.9%38 W · 85 L-10.0wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed No34c75.97$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.229819.4%19 W · 79 L-10.3wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-55.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0a0c…74f9backed No28c70.87$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.03250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick38cpaid+78.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No35c65$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.417140.4%69 W · 102 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes64c63.23$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4733238.6%128 W · 204 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No40c63$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.983732.4%12 W · 25 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-36.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6eb…21b9backed No31c60$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.4450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2fe…7558backed No28c60$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid+19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes61c58$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.584546.7%21 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No43c54.54$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.8916020.6%33 W · 127 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbcd3…1a5abacked Yes62c54$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.431553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57d8…a490backed No37c52.65$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+168.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd2e…0873backed No47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid+6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe09b…0a70backed Yes60c49$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes60c46.18$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8313647.1%64 W · 72 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No34c45$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.720542%86 W · 119 L-11.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x758b…0a1cbacked No34c41$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.247035.7%25 W · 45 L-5.5wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-40.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No35c41$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.655255.8%29 W · 23 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No33c40.03$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.8212049.2%59 W · 61 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95ba…089fbacked No37c40$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+37%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea4b…eb8cbacked No29c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.42100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+151.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes59c39.98$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5933421.9%73 W · 261 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc3fc…484abacked No35c39.54$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.76826.5%18 W · 50 L-6.7wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-32.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No31c37.3$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.594346.5%20 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No37c37.05$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.3410034%34 W · 66 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-26.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No37c37.05$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.3415431.2%48 W · 106 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45e6…c078backed No41c35$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.552218.2%4 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-50.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes67c33.76$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6245035.1%158 W · 292 L-37.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb886…3024backed No34c31.65$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.89450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick33cpaid+29.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…d74fbacked No40c31.63$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+147%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbe1…cfbdbacked Yes76c30$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick67cpaid+46.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd4d…3f16backed No34c30$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+191.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e81…864bbacked Yes62c29.25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.24837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-35.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1452…449cbacked Yes53c25.47$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5825%2 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-56.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked No50c22.2$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.12832.1%9 W · 19 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-34.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes71c21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9121033.3%70 W · 140 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x211b…1872backed Yes67c20.6$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-59.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa58b…ef84backed Yes63c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.61216.7%2 W · 10 L-4.0wins-0.33per pick50cpaid-19.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x399d…e294backed Yes67c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick66cpaid-37.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3be0…9836backed Yes73c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid+29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes61c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.271266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+22.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa047…4ffabacked No51c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.81369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x41b4…0e12backed Yes63c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x40a1…c62fbacked Yes67c18.4$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.33250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes68c17.14$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.664643.5%20 W · 26 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes65c16.66$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.832429.2%7 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick35cpaid+24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa264…3b18backed Yes65c16$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.41172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.