Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8aaba1d0224d293b046eba2308a9f7a04c9dd25624a453b841b15db7216757e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,577
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,852
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,577 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Yes | 48c | 1,359$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.82 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed Yes | 34c | 743.33$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.56 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4131…d591backed Yes | 30c | 601.54$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.36 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 37c | 528.37$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.7 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 54c | 459.04$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.06 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…d8b2backed Yes | 46c | 453.99$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.52 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 38c | 346.97$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.13 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 33c | 307.95$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.33 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 34c | 286.19$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.89 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed No | 67c | 244.75$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.09 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 51c | 200$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 62c | 191$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.37 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 59c | 188.43$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.83 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e04…80babacked Yes | 34c | 184.92$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.51 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccf…cd14backed Yes | 36c | 136.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.01 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 101.84$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.92 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0b…82cbbacked No | 63c | 94.33$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 90$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.87 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 33c | 69.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…e62bbacked Yes | 39c | 62.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…5199backed Yes | 38c | 61.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.03 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe622…ce7dbacked Yes | 51c | 60.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…9c58backed No | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed Yes | 63c | 56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 75c | 50.55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb22c…8aadbacked No | 66c | 49.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…1f70backed No | 41c | 48.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f16…016bbacked Yes | 41c | 47.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 48c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 35c | 33.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2b…d6a7backed Yes | 35c | 33.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed6…85aebacked Yes | 56c | 32.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 39c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 61c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 42c | 28.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6962…733ebacked Yes | 62c | 26.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…48cfbacked No | 52c | 24.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 56c | 22.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7a…8465backed No | 54c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on July 9?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on July 9?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.