Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ca7f12b79fc50184de1a5b5d22bbc3c4fc82b80459b1b3f6de24e7a8218ca85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,426
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,725
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,426 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4131…d591backed Yes | 20c | 955.96$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.52 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe622…ce7dbacked Yes | 3c | 531$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 55c | 464.37$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.95 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked No | 74c | 354.04$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.93 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 10c | 252.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 26c | 214.52$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…1f70backed Yes | 43c | 200.46$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.65 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 29c | 197.76$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.96 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 60c | 152.28$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.89 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 44c | 132.65$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.65 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 52c | 129.16$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed No | 53c | 121$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.46 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 45c | 59.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5546…c8cebacked No | 50c | 58.31$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1afe…9fe1backed No | 64c | 55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 57c | 53.94$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc754…5c67backed Yes | 44c | 51.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 48c | 50.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 47c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7103…c469backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0295…49d0backed No | 57c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 44c | 49.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 23c | 46.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa57c…bf42backed Yes | 33c | 44.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…ddf5backed Yes | 69c | 41.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed Yes | 70c | 33.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a95…2551backed Yes | 34c | 31.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…93bcbacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed Yes | 47c | 25.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 72c | 14.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on July 9?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on July 9?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on July 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.