TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 360m and 370m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$75,006
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$78,553

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,006 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes52c10,577$5,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,051.5617751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x712f…9fe6backed No45c5,678$2,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,551.668633.7%29 W · 57 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-33.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No46c3,181$1,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,467.63540%14 W · 21 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-30.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfdf1…7195backed Yes41c2,930$1,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,723.58933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+38.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No56c2,016$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,125.4316737.1%62 W · 105 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-37.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No41c1,893$772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.141936.8%7 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+39%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No64c1,751$1,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,120.8950633.4%169 W · 337 L-30.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No66c1,587$1,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,048.626833.8%23 W · 45 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-33.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No57c1,312$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742.38442.9%36 W · 48 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e25…9712backed No7c1,295$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.961711.8%2 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.16per pick27cpaid-81%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x88ee…c234backed Yes36c1,253$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$805.362433.3%8 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No57c1,240$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70910436.5%38 W · 66 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-40.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No65c1,210$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782.068225.6%21 W · 61 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-52.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes37c1,079$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$675.5518746%86 W · 101 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe30…87cabacked Yes73c1,047$764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.262100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+56.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No31c1,020$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.5711240.2%45 W · 67 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf697…c72cbacked Yes56c1,001$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.553625%9 W · 27 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-46.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes33c1,000$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67532639.3%128 W · 198 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x066d…07bcbacked No75c969.81$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.822020%4 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-69.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes53c952.86$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.8813735%48 W · 89 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-35.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb413…1cb7backed Yes21c842.67$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.984211.9%5 W · 37 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-45.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81e4…743ebacked Yes25c842.44$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.042100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+281%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes42c800$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.847328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No67c712.89$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.169951.5%51 W · 48 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No34c679.67$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.6110645.3%48 W · 58 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-26.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x955c…990fbacked Yes60c638.78$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.147157.7%41 W · 30 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+29.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No18c636.14$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.488638.4%33 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-16.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd7ea…ea62backed Yes76c606.85$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.412857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa189…a2d5backed No5c600$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No55c588$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.8912442.7%53 W · 71 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Yes37c564.22$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.51333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4906…7e10backed Yes17c556.62$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.82714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick7cpaid-17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e01…757abacked Yes8c509.98$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.598231.7%26 W · 56 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick35cpaid+22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5603…7a24backed Yes56c488.11$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.851040%4 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+81.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bc7…e411backed Yes74c482.17$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.842360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No24c474.3$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.883545.7%16 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-12.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c23…418bbacked No40c454.61$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No62c440$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.6210339.8%41 W · 62 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-31.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes19c419.27$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.571040%4 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+88.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No34c410.45$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.5411924.4%29 W · 90 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-45.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x42e6…8e78backed Yes41c407.67$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.317860.3%47 W · 31 L+7.1wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+6.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeec5…b6febacked No3c397.96$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.941838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-47.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa156…cf02backed Yes35c391$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.45333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick19cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8536…9662backed No68c386.96$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No14c386.18$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.151250%6 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+52.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9951…11bdbacked Yes33c372.6$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.931855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+9.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2ddd…357fbacked Yes65c360$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+52.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No64c354.08$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.127537.3%28 W · 47 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-42.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No32c351.33$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.013246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5095…93eebacked Yes24c331.9$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.4429642.6%126 W · 170 L+22.9wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No44c326.25$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.623246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5441…1f2dbacked Yes30c321.08$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.85250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+66.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No54c306.29$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.213444.1%15 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-32.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaab8…4664backed No48c295$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe03b…32dabacked Yes58c283.59$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No63c275.23$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.493158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-11%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6952…40d8backed Yes56c269.49$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8963…de64backed Yes16c260$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.023100%3 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+417.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes62c251.5$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.3210042%42 W · 58 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No80c250$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005362.3%33 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes24c247.29$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.9429423.5%69 W · 225 L+0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-43%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffb1…f54ebacked No14c240.82$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.67333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-53.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No68c240.67$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.671735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-40.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4131…d591backed Yes59c239.96$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.72250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-15.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No51c238.46$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.565339.6%21 W · 32 L-6.8wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-40.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No49c221.37$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.323545.7%16 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-35.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7afb…61eabacked Yes25c219.99$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.77580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.33per pick47cpaid+69.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1214…ebecbacked Yes25c207.63$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.554918.4%9 W · 40 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-41.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked No71c205.66$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.25621.4%12 W · 44 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-41.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5533…8220backed Yes12c203.25$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.25728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+45.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50d3…bad4backed Yes22c202.45$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.91450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+65.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b34…b202backed Yes18c200$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.42365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+26.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xed11…10bebacked No71c200$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14130%0 W · 3 L-2.2wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xaabd…0992backed Yes15c200$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1702100%2 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+578.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2213…492cbacked No16c200$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaad…69ccbacked Yes44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1121957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2cc7…2385backed Yes23c200$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.5333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+43.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No30c195.03$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.23250%16 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa008…0588backed Yes46c191.47$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+119%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8a9…2948backed Yes14c186.86$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.7614425.7%37 W · 107 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick22cpaid-15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x34a9…4cfdbacked No15c184.88$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.423043.3%13 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes12c180$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.42686.3%17 W · 251 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-53%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5dd7…2c2cbacked Yes50c176.54$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.27250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid0%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No37c171.4$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.263557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1144…b8c0backed No35c161.1$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c29…e1ccbacked Yes69c159.32$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.32333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-51.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x810f…57aabacked Yes68c158.83$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.481526.7%4 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a65…a3debacked Yes61c154.09$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.71250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-18.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe055…0f96backed Yes43c152.75$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.74366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+41.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fed…395abacked Yes66c152.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No45c150.7$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.232962.1%18 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21f4…b8adbacked Yes67c148.35$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.35250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9842…5ac8backed Yes45c142$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.931931.6%6 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2d9…5653backed No72c140$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.435920.3%12 W · 47 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd06f…15c8backed No67c139.99$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.0320%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No59c137.83$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.983542.9%15 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-35.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc808…fffebacked No76c135$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5ed…0ce8backed Yes43c130$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.84100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+106.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2d81…fe57backed No26c121.9$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.556150.8%31 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No78c120$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.41163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.