TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 350m and 360m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$90,009
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$80,827

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,009 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 183 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xecaa…77a9backed No55c10,301$5,693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,607.6817751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes47c7,100$3,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,355.7418746%86 W · 101 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No54c3,286$1,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,519.13540%14 W · 21 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-30.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8390…09f1backed Yes73c3,154$2,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,308.3333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid+19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8373…7b8ebacked Yes31c2,889$892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$891.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e25…9712backed Yes19c2,332$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.741711.8%2 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.16per pick27cpaid-81%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes33c2,168$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.983423.5%8 W · 26 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x712f…9fe6backed Yes59c2,142$1,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,267.468633.7%29 W · 57 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-33.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes55c2,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.9932639.3%128 W · 198 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes17c1,800$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3063910.3%4 W · 35 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-48.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No45c1,751$782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$968.7616737.1%62 W · 105 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-37.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes57c1,750$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997.695518.2%10 W · 45 L-7.5wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-60.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes49c1,584$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.1329423.5%69 W · 225 L+0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-43%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No63c1,537$973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.858442.9%36 W · 48 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No34c1,524$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,004.356833.8%23 W · 45 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-33.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked No34c1,478$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$969.095621.4%12 W · 44 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-41.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a01…6397backed Yes80c1,347$1,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,074.934553.3%24 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No45c1,238$559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$678.6310436.5%38 W · 66 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-40.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9c0…62b2backed Yes51c1,197$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No60c1,196$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.991936.8%7 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+39%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes52c1,021$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.4810139.6%40 W · 61 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes42c1,019$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.8313735%48 W · 89 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-35.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x81e4…743ebacked No27c954.02$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.272100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+281%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x77a1…de3dbacked No59c939.89$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.884544.4%20 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No69c859.71$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.7211240.2%45 W · 67 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9951…11bdbacked No33c851.99$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.921855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+9.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7b16…358abacked No25c839.57$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+102.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No28c803.54$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.479951.5%51 W · 48 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes63c800$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.447328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x516c…8bb5backed No14c800$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.86per pick14cpaid+604.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No31c763.07$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.038225.6%21 W · 61 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-52.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No31c680.62$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.310645.3%48 W · 58 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-26.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x88ee…c234backed Yes56c658.68$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.092433.3%8 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5605…a9efbacked Yes76c645$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79fd…78cebacked No68c628.07$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.342100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe055…0f96backed No53c600.06$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.46366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+41.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5603…7a24backed Yes41c600$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2461040%4 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+81.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No65c573.09$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.73557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe30…87cabacked No57c528.96$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.322100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+56.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bc7…e411backed Yes42c522.99$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.062360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2cc7…2385backed Yes27c514.28$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.51333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+43.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x64a7…2133backed No27c499.99$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.49366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+84.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeba0…4586backed Yes67c499.99$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x11bb…8472backed No11c498.36$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.692100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+456.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6018…170cbacked Yes44c479.87$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.7713635.3%48 W · 88 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x34a9…4cfdbacked No42c461.55$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.163043.3%13 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f9b…2a44backed Yes76c445.24$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick78cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5095…93eebacked No14c434.6$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.1829642.6%126 W · 170 L+22.9wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No20c431.18$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.9950633.4%169 W · 337 L-30.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No40c418.65$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.753246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x955c…990fbacked No61c413.1$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.097157.7%41 W · 30 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+29.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb97…eee8backed Yes58c400$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.63540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42e6…8e78backed Yes71c395.62$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.447860.3%47 W · 31 L+7.1wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+6.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4906…7e10backed Yes18c380$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.79714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick7cpaid-17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8a9…2948backed Yes14c376.79$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3414425.7%37 W · 107 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick22cpaid-15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No38c354.08$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.837537.3%28 W · 47 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-42.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc808…fffebacked No27c306.52$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.91333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No70c295.58$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.833545.7%16 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-35.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7ea…ea62backed Yes66c286.58$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.142857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07b3…cdfbbacked Yes70c283.74$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d81…fe57backed Yes49c270.5$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.476150.8%31 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5dd7…2c2cbacked Yes38c264.3$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid0%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa5cb…6cb5backed Yes51c257.84$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.29955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+21.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No35c250.67$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.11735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-40.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes39c250$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.55362.3%33 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffb1…f54ebacked Yes14c241.41$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.92333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-53.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaad…69ccbacked No49c238.9$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.181957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No42c235.75$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.753040%12 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No58c234$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.2387033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No26c222$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.3810339.8%41 W · 62 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-31.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2779…239abacked Yes32c220.28$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.822045%9 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+35.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaab8…4664backed Yes39c216.67$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x11c8…be84backed Yes14c202.65$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.985650%28 W · 28 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed11…10bebacked Yes70c201.4$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.3930%0 W · 3 L-2.2wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3af9…b4bbbacked No26c200$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.2540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd78…e773backed No19c200$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.813119.1%25 W · 106 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17e4…4d33backed Yes72c200$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-78%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaabd…0992backed No14c200$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1712100%2 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+578.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xafbe…072ebacked No26c200$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.23100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+113.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7244…2aafbacked No26c200$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.2475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+59.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8963…de64backed No15c200$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.83100%3 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+417.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa315…3365backed No26c200$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+94.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc48b…6c1ebacked No59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95ce…5c3dbacked Yes73c199.99$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No40c197$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.9812442.7%53 W · 71 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9d4…e363backed No25c196.62$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+300%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No21c190.36$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.752962.1%18 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No34c183.57$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.7611924.4%29 W · 90 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-45.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xff4b…6555backed Yes70c180.41$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No61c179.31$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.23545.7%16 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-12.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf697…c72cbacked Yes56c176.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003625%9 W · 27 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-46.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc2e9…e288backed Yes55c170$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No67c169.03$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.033158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-11%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9842…5ac8backed Yes51c167$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.971931.6%6 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9214…a803backed Yes70c164.29$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1153243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa156…cf02backed Yes7c160$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick19cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No63c154.24$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.843444.1%15 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-32.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeec5…b6febacked Yes12c150.18$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.651838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-47.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe8db…7c68backed Yes13c148.7$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3344…56c4backed Yes14c146.2$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.533148.4%15 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.