TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa5cb…6cb5

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
40
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Movies, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Movies at 54 out of 100; worst World Politics at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2026, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+21.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 47m and 52m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+53.2%+$8.9
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+152.1%+$54.65
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 360m and 370m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+143.7%+$65.15
Will "The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 57m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.96
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 350m and 360m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$131.29
Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 92m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+129.8%+$47.96
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 120m and 125m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+113.7%+$100.65
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 115m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.85
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 125m and 130m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.63
All 9 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Valorant — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alphabacked FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.22
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winnerbacked Team Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs Rex Regum Qeon (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alphabacked Rex Regum Qeon · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+128.5%+$27.15
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs Rex Regum Qeon - Map 2 Winnerbacked FULL SENSE · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+33.4%+$6.97
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs Rex Regum Qeon - Map 1 Winnerbacked Rex Regum Qeon · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+55.8%+$56.73
Valorant: T1 vs DetonatioN FocusMe (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Omegabacked DetonatioN FocusMe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$133Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$65.67
Valorant: T1 vs DetonatioN FocusMe - Map 1 Winnerbacked DetonatioN FocusMe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+64.4%+$30.47
Valorant: Global Esports vs Gen.G Esports - Map 2 Winnerbacked Global Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.81
Valorant: Team Secret vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winnerbacked Team Secret · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.74
All 9 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+13.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-42.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
CS2 — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+58.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+362.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT+362.5%+$137.76
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$128Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+31%+$39.83
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$133.83
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.