TailMyPicks
Market

Movies · resolved market

Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$303,924
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$307,821

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $303,924 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 218 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9951…11bdbacked Yes48c34,338$16,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,993.81855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+9.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No70c32,353$22,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,542.0317751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed No17c30,927$5,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,375.176639.4%26 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5095…93eebacked Yes51c18,576$9,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,183.4729642.6%126 W · 170 L+22.9wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes34c15,090$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,889.9732639.3%128 W · 198 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b16…358abacked No4c14,859$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.42250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+102.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes70c12,917$9,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,819.1818746%86 W · 101 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc60…af79backed No72c11,500$8,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,249.992334.8%8 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+24.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb028…8686backed No41c9,908$4,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,050.7123639.8%94 W · 142 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-26.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9da…9b5fbacked No3c8,119$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes27c6,509$1,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,736.25518.2%10 W · 45 L-7.5wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-60.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdacf…3c74backed Yes45c6,107$2,717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,389.05666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+21.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x712f…9fe6backed Yes29c5,281$1,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,749.758633.7%29 W · 57 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-33.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes9c5,185$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,721.2332739.1%128 W · 199 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9afe…062abacked Yes46c3,975$1,826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,149.121030%3 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-47.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No10c3,330$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.555215.4%8 W · 44 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-27%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21f4…b8adbacked No3c3,220$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.82250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d62…a1f0backed Yes18c2,923$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,402.186023.3%14 W · 46 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick13cpaid+32.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5652…00c9backed Yes78c2,500$1,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No17c2,258$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.948225.6%21 W · 61 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-52.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb413…1cb7backed Yes29c2,226$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,581.334211.9%5 W · 37 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-45.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5dc…35f9backed No61c2,145$1,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,298.611154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe78…c533backed Yes53c2,099$1,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$989.6529735.7%106 W · 191 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77a1…de3dbacked No77c2,067$1,582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,581.584544.4%20 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ffb…a834backed No19c1,963$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.956132.8%20 W · 41 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33f8…c5e4backed No21c1,950$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.5129423.5%69 W · 225 L+0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-43%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa189…a2d5backed Yes75c1,760$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.63475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No21c1,423$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.9550633.4%169 W · 337 L-30.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x04bf…7cafbacked No52c1,223$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.367735.1%27 W · 50 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8a9…2948backed Yes10c1,209$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,084.0214425.7%37 W · 107 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick22cpaid-15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f5b…b598backed No29c1,209$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.268536.5%31 W · 54 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88ee…c234backed Yes74c1,205$897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.352433.3%8 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5936…c2d6backed No26c1,200$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2213…492cbacked No49c1,109$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.261136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No9c1,085$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$946833.8%23 W · 45 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-33.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x88b6…3cffbacked No13c1,067$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.511947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e34…4480backed No23c1,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ee0…d6a6backed No20c999.99$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6978…08d8backed No14c999.99$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No28c978.5$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.8210339.8%41 W · 62 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-31.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa54a…8cccbacked No5c968.13$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf697…c72cbacked Yes44c901.53$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.13625%9 W · 27 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-46.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcffe…146dbacked No72c900$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64512936.4%47 W · 82 L+0.3wins0.00per pick36cpaid-25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes62c898.97$561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.5223321.5%50 W · 183 L+1.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No36c815.59$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.3812442.7%53 W · 71 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked No67c790.68$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.484930.6%15 W · 34 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-49.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfdf1…7195backed No53c774.98$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+38.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e64…279fbacked Yes20c704.61$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+400%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dd6…5a97backed Yes70c700$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2104100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+50.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x57be…e140backed No3c683.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb779…ab22backed No22c681.82$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No14c667.19$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.4710436.5%38 W · 66 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-40.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4041…6f52backed No48c631.66$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.1917017.1%29 W · 141 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb97…eee8backed Yes48c600$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.33540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes35c590.53$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.910549.5%52 W · 53 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-4.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes21c567.32$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.183423.5%8 W · 26 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8eb…8473backed No14c557$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.393010%3 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-66.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf0e…c02bbacked No68c530.81$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.314119.5%8 W · 33 L-7.8wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-69.3%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No19c512.79$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.379951.5%51 W · 48 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe86b…9371backed No78c505$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.9771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick69cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42e6…8e78backed Yes47c500$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2667860.3%47 W · 31 L+7.1wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+6.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked No23c500$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.530%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8390…09f1backed No61c499.99$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid+19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a70…18f0backed No15c499.99$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-68.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x878c…c12abacked No10c459.98$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No53c438.51$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.411127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-35%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4d8…76a7backed No14c430.89$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-61%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No6c424.26$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.511936.8%7 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+39%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked No33c417.88$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.4757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No48c410$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.9410645.3%48 W · 58 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-26.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3a9…6c89backed No12c407.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe241…5b42backed No74c404.99$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.7560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff13…6d35backed No34c390.73$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.29425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-43.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcf2…7279backed Yes40c389.9$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.9413820.3%28 W · 110 L+0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid+27.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No21c371$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.914440.9%18 W · 26 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes8c362.4$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.811,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked No3c355.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.12185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid-44%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d9d…6703backed Yes40c350$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2101100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes18c349.99$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.492934.5%10 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24de…83cbbacked Yes77c340.52$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.32560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6018…170cbacked Yes11c329$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.8113635.3%48 W · 88 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x614e…4f1bbacked Yes15c319.5$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.17650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+61.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8aac…309abacked Yes61c315.6$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.572138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-42.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xabff…6b73backed No60c300$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf29d…add3backed Yes79c300$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No39c294.36$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.843540%14 W · 21 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-30.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No44c293$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.498442.9%36 W · 48 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes64c291.73$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.5410042%42 W · 58 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f9b…2a44backed Yes80c284.17$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.83366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick78cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7ea…ea62backed Yes63c275.65$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.912857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e01…757abacked No48c271.66$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.998231.7%26 W · 56 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick35cpaid+22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4805…93efbacked No31c257.81$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes16c255.11$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.8422030.5%67 W · 153 L-13.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No8c254.94$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.753040%12 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No19c252.44$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.18653.5%46 W · 40 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No20c250.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.861735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-40.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5686…fed5backed No4c244.16$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b5d…fbb6backed No23c242.54$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554936.7%18 W · 31 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e63…d87fbacked Yes78c240.06$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bcb…06dbbacked Yes25c235.38$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+292.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.