Movies · resolved market
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 280m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbef01605a056fa028ee5a3462ea4bbbf275ca26d47f769f4b32783a357a676c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,398
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,467
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,398 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6dd9…1024backed No | 60c | 701.2$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.2 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked Yes | 5c | 701$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf638…aa50backed Yes | 18c | 612.03$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.71 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 20c | 580.62$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.82 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…5b42backed No | 59c | 508$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 41c | 488$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.08 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9afc…314bbacked Yes | 5c | 453.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…aa7dbacked Yes | 15c | 352.63$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e26…69fdbacked Yes | 44c | 343.11$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +200%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 26c | 319.4$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.59 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -13.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77a1…de3dbacked Yes | 17c | 298.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…35f9backed No | 55c | 294.93$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.72 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 39c | 216$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.61 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 185.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff13…6d35backed Yes | 15c | 119.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1214…ebecbacked Yes | 39c | 104$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 40c | 90$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 17c | 72.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf48…1751backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 31c | 36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -7.8wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed No | 77c | 22.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 75c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1e…cf5fbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +90.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 280m?this page
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m?Yes won
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 280m and 290m?No won
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 290m and 300m?No won
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 300m and 310m?No won
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 310m and 320m?No won
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 320m and 330m?No won
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 330m and 340m?No won
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 340m and 350m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.