TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 310m and 320m?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$34,378
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,723

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,378 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost-$203910.3%4 W · 35 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-48.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2ca…b6adbacked Yes10c1,020$100 inLost-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dd9…1024backed Yes13c911.82$114 inLost-$114.155234.6%18 W · 34 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes5c366.06$19 inLost-$18.565710.5%6 W · 51 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-54.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9afc…314bbacked Yes3c358.26$11 inLost-$11.1170%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes13c146$19 inLost-$18.981,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes25c144.42$36 inLost-$36.191926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-59.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes20c121$25 inLost-$24.7710830.6%33 W · 75 L-13.9wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-42.9%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xb8a9…2948backed No74c60$44 inWon+$15.614425.7%37 W · 107 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick22cpaid-15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes21c50$11 inLost-$10.52650%13 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb17d…59aebacked No68c37$25 inWon+$11.843351.5%17 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb382…f229backed Yes32c37$12 inLost-$11.84850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+21.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No72c20$14 inWon+$5.619133%63 W · 128 L+0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No75c16$12 inWon+$41936.8%7 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+39%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.