Movies · resolved market
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 340m and 350m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56a6db1d81771288a008c9f1d6a7d218dcd42304caa89cfb4877d950e6b80249
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,561
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,204
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,561 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes | 2c | 22,000$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 22c | 1,581$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.5 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…0fe5backed No | 73c | 1,388$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 3c | 1,292$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,126$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.65 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9afe…062abacked Yes | 27c | 999.99$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 2c | 775.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9951…11bdbacked Yes | 12c | 686.47$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.61 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 635.42$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.76 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37fc…7717backed Yes | 3c | 585.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Yes | 17c | 553.5$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.66 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1336…7b1ebacked Yes | 4c | 499.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa54a…8cccbacked Yes | 9c | 404.91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e25…9712backed Yes | 23c | 398.38$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.26 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -81%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 17c | 391.19$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.75 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 11c | 365$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 10c | 363.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc7…bc74backed Yes | 3c | 339.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed Yes | 25c | 305$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.58 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 4c | 304.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x114a…46c0backed Yes | 15c | 304$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +56%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4906…7e10backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 248.08$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 19c | 235.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 11c | 221.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…67b1backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 191.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x066d…07bcbacked Yes | 27c | 188.14$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.73 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…fbb6backed Yes | 17c | 179.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc923…7154backed Yes | 13c | 137.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ac…efa9backed Yes | 12c | 131.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48a3…aa24backed Yes | 11c | 130.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddbe…6780backed Yes | 17c | 122.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e95…ec2cbacked Yes | 27c | 111$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7bd…26adbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4639…3e8cbacked Yes | 25c | 59.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5705…4652backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -73%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 111 | 84.7%94 W · 17 L | +11.3wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 340m and 350m?this page
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m?Yes won
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 280m and 290m?No won
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 290m and 300m?No won
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 300m and 310m?No won
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 310m and 320m?No won
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 320m and 330m?No won
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 330m and 340m?No won
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 280m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.