TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6dd9…1024

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
79
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: China Taiwan, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category China Taiwan at 53 out of 100; worst AI at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2026, EDT5234.6%18 W · 34 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 52 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+62.3%+$52.59
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 310m and 320m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$114.15
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 300m and 310m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.96
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 280m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$422Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+66.2%+$279.2
Will "Minions & Monsters" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.28
Will "Minions & Monsters" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 14m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$147Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+100%+$147.29
Will "Moana" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 20.5m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will "Minions & Monsters" 3rd Weekend Box Office be at least 14m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$127.75
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 115m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 115m and 120m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$380Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$380
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 95m and 105m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$85.62
Will "Toy Story 5" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 19m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$518Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$517.89
Will "Moana" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 44m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$259Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$440.99
Will "Moana" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 34m and 39m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$823Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$822.95
Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 68m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$923Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$923.01
Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 95m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$89.8
Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 95m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 77m and 86m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.61
Will "Young Washington" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 22m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$227Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$226.71
Will "Young Washington" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 18m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 52m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+65.9%+$42.75
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$487Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+35.8%+$174.2
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.57
Will "Obsession" 7th Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will "Obsession" 7th Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$184.47
Showing 25 of 52 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 9, 2026, EDT1241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$410Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$409.53
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$174
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$408Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$192
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,343Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+79.5%+$1,067.44
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$700Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+71.4%+$500
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$628Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$628
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$139.56
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$295Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+37%+$109.18
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
All 12 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 24, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-24.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-30.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$625Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$625.05
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$251Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+39.6%+$99.26
All 2 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+300%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump announce AI export restrictions relief for China?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+300%+$72.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Adam Sandler attend UFC Freedom 250?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$252Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$252.3
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.