China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Trump announce AI export restrictions relief for China?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ce3e24da24e081975a103ddaa0dc188f57dfed228108480bfb42e22b6e9d11d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,094
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,588
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,094 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfbd4…194bbacked No | 39c | 1,721$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,048.19 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +35%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb989…4781backed Yes | 12c | 1,640$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d5…c665backed Yes | 2c | 1,367$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 53c | 1,231$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.08 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -7.5wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes | 24c | 1,178$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.39 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 43c | 1,112$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.71 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes | 13c | 1,000$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.72 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x665b…32b1backed Yes | 73c | 999.99$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 63c | 716.87$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.62 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0a…e172backed No | 74c | 703.68$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…ab69backed Yes | 79c | 655.63$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 40c | 652.95$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.51 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 17c | 588.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +401.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…b94cbacked Yes | 27c | 521.43$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.83 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 27c | 488.22$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 42c | 457.74$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.87 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 48c | 421.15$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.15 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +7.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 371.53$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.15 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Yes | 7c | 352.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x793d…8720backed Yes | 10c | 313.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +117.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1653…0348backed Yes | 51c | 303.77$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +87.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88da…15c6backed Yes | 33c | 301.68$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cf…cbfdbacked Yes | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 4c | 299.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked No | 41c | 281.34$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.34 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8714…eeb8backed Yes | 72c | 277.77$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 264.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb986…4b60backed Yes | 10c | 251.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 72c | 250$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 43c | 250$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 7c | 234.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 56 | 8.9%5 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked Yes | 6c | 207.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5314…323ebacked Yes | 5c | 205.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5d…6be6backed No | 66c | 203.92$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…d242backed Yes | 12c | 202.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 6c | 199.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 5cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…6069backed Yes | 78c | 192.11$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0385…7ffabacked Yes | 79c | 190.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6d…5453backed No | 67c | 182.42$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 11c | 180$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +186.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa0…d006backed Yes | 79c | 157.98$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked No | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2690…3fe9backed Yes | 34c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 71c | 140$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb748…dbddbacked No | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f9…52e9backed No | 21c | 137.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…13f4backed No | 22c | 130$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +346.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa78…2a88backed Yes | 79c | 126.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +285.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 120.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43e2…5fbdbacked Yes | 14c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…9a45backed No | 19c | 118.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 23c | 112.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 52 | 11.5%6 W · 46 L | -11.8wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff2…68a2backed Yes | 68c | 109$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.22 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0525…c737backed No | 23c | 107.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4644…280ebacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bd…6184backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec9…ec5ebacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb746…b040backed No | 77c | 99.98$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…1024backed No | 25c | 96.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 55c | 90.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.47 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 90.44$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 31 | 83.9%26 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 75cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x670d…3f3fbacked Yes | 56c | 89.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2946…8eb4backed Yes | 19c | 86.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…f35cbacked No | 63c | 85.84$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb7…1429backed Yes | 23c | 82.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbae1…3a47backed No | 29c | 82.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 43c | 82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.74 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…ba2fbacked Yes | 38c | 79.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdff7…dc70backed Yes | 76c | 79.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x450c…29eabacked Yes | 75c | 66.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9634…aae2backed Yes | 64c | 62.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…a80dbacked No | 49c | 61.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a7…b437backed No | 23c | 56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +343.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x332e…df71backed No | 27c | 55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +166.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…3144backed No | 60c | 46.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7296…69f5backed No | 45c | 45.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 70c | 42.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ba…cf54backed Yes | 78c | 42.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d1…dabdbacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40a1…c62fbacked No | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee2…dfd8backed Yes | 72c | 39.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5062…2c3dbacked Yes | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.40per pick | 53cpaid | -81%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 42c | 37.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e76…7b84backed Yes | 31c | 36.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea75…1920backed No | 57c | 34.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2db2…6559backed No | 74c | 33.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe09b…0a70backed Yes | 59c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5b…0037backed Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fc…022bbacked Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +186.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba22…4333backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59cd…716fbacked No | 60c | 29.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…273bbacked Yes | 73c | 27.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ac6abacked No | 71c | 20.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87b9…b193backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf52e…1663backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf785…e366backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ed…e720backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 60c | 18.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump announce AI export restrictions relief for China?this page
- Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt?Yes won
- Will Trump announce a U.S.-China AI Safety Channel?Yes won
- Will Trump announce a US-China Board of Trade?Yes won
- Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?No won
- Will Trump announce the release of detained Americans?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.