China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Trump announce the release of detained Americans?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4bb233ab32b46bb4695f0a1b51f099960dec20e7cf9075f1f92728ebafabd40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,126
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,126 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe95a…c966backed Yes | 9c | 554.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 11c | 499.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 33c | 428.99$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6d…5453backed Yes | 12c | 364.28$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 10c | 240.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked Yes | 6c | 223.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 221.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd5…e4f3backed No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 17c | 119.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 104$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bab…8322backed Yes | 15c | 99.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…f35cbacked Yes | 11c | 88.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 76c | 73.41$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 21c | 69.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x789e…3bb1backed Yes | 47c | 45.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | +295.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ef…937cbacked No | 77c | 41.18$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1842…9418backed No | 57c | 28.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 61c | 22.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…a8a9backed No | 67c | 18.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x016a…1e22backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 61cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump announce the release of detained Americans?this page
- Will Trump announce AI export restrictions relief for China?No won
- Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt?Yes won
- Will Trump announce a U.S.-China AI Safety Channel?Yes won
- Will Trump announce a US-China Board of Trade?Yes won
- Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.