China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99067da61a6adbd81a774a2171a692c2bc0b1d79339010892dd0122700d07c27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $106,743
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,301
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,743 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc41e…e2e9backed No | 0c | 15,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0965…ac46backed No | 1c | 5,259$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Yes | 2c | 2,811$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,749.46 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +562.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 1c | 2,475$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8982…af89backed Yes | 3c | 2,418$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,333.48 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +251.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 2c | 1,740$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,708.19 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +100.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 44c | 1,639$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.25 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed Yes | 1c | 1,419$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 1cpaid | +2,527.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7158…7310backed Yes | 7c | 1,379$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,283.15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +155.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,358$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,335.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.98per pick | 2cpaid | +5,943.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…d84fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,234$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,122.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,011.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,199$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,181.72 | 56 | 8.9%5 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 18c | 1,147$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.17 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…2020backed No | 24c | 1,136$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 1,076$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035.19 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…f3bbbacked No | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 996$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$971.35 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 4c | 995.32$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.05 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 965.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$947.02 | 46 | 4.3%2 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fac…b5b4backed No | 3c | 900$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc93e…7195backed Yes | 4c | 805.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +437.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 4c | 749.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789e…3bb1backed Yes | 4c | 623.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.23 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | +295.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4b…ecd3backed Yes | 2c | 611.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.98per pick | 2cpaid | +4,264.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4072…541dbacked Yes | 3c | 571.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 2c | 560.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.15 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +186.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…7b2cbacked Yes | 3c | 534.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.97per pick | 3cpaid | +3,629.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 17c | 526.18$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.79 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +4.7wins | +0.36per pick | 33cpaid | +387.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xed79…1e49backed Yes | 3c | 510.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 2cpaid | +750.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed No | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +316.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2946…8eb4backed Yes | 10c | 441.31$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.31 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 6c | 432.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.01 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 12cpaid | +211%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…b158backed No | 30c | 405$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.61 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa78…2a88backed Yes | 8c | 375$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +285.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e2…5fbdbacked Yes | 6c | 350$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.06 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…bf99backed Yes | 3c | 349.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.06 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 2cpaid | +506.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 10c | 325.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef1f…5868backed No | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9290…3452backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +900%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ba…cf54backed Yes | 5c | 294$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68ea…1a3ebacked Yes | 9c | 270$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,011.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x458e…51b4backed Yes | 6c | 238.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 30cpaid | +453.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf4…527fbacked Yes | 17c | 235.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x043f…d9e1backed No | 9c | 219.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…cfb7backed No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +232.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…52cabacked No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb698…976abacked Yes | 71c | 177$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.61 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8654…5b0ebacked Yes | 19c | 105.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +164.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc03…f66fbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4c…5c55backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 89.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x429f…76f3backed Yes | 16c | 82.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +160%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…5053backed Yes | 18c | 64.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ca…1f18backed Yes | 19c | 55.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +226.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc58c…0a81backed No | 77c | 32.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe8…6d0abacked No | 54c | 21.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…227bbacked No | 79c | 14.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt?this page
- Will Trump announce AI export restrictions relief for China?No won
- Will Trump announce a U.S.-China AI Safety Channel?Yes won
- Will Trump announce a US-China Board of Trade?Yes won
- Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?No won
- Will Trump announce the release of detained Americans?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.