China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Trump announce a U.S.-China AI Safety Channel?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea6d303ab39205e7c1d2c92461bc5053e7cf3494fead51d64097455ff0f3894d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,827
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,827 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 0c | 10,475$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842b…b366backed Yes | 7c | 3,294$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,067.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 32cpaid | +440.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes | 8c | 1,991$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,836.95 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +166.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 44c | 1,345$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x738a…5996backed Yes | 6c | 1,223$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,153.77 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 29cpaid | +335.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0965…ac46backed No | 2c | 1,003$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c9…263cbacked Yes | 10c | 899.98$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x793d…8720backed Yes | 9c | 843.27$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.43 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +117.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 74c | 710$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.77 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 496.18$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.49 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6725…1bf9backed Yes | 10c | 484.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.07 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 11c | 478.77$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.4 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 16cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 39c | 467.46$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 51c | 440.37$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.09 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 7c | 400$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +100.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12e4…dfc2backed No | 55c | 348.98$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.47 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +5.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +683.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Yes | 6c | 326.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.27 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +562.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 317.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.27 | 46 | 4.3%2 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5b…5d41backed Yes | 24c | 316.59$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.1 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +5.1wins | +0.34per pick | 53cpaid | +70%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 6c | 286.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.95 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69a1…c050backed Yes | 7c | 275$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 4cpaid | +587.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 271$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.09 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 6c | 256.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.01 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5040…96cfbacked Yes | 7c | 255.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +251.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 37c | 239.57$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.19 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92e5…efeebacked No | 9c | 221.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 8c | 221.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed No | 46c | 217$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b97…0efebacked Yes | 60c | 199.99$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +70%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 8c | 180.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.95 | 56 | 8.9%5 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…bad5backed No | 12c | 173.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 9c | 137.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e81…864bbacked Yes | 25c | 137.31$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked No | 40c | 132.89$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a64…81a7backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,150%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 122.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e85abacked Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.9 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecc…1d30backed Yes | 13c | 109$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.83 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x043f…d9e1backed No | 10c | 108.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 48c | 107.89$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.27 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85ee…a64abacked No | 39c | 104.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fc…022bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +186.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed No | 23c | 87.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed No | 80c | 86.86$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.24 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x670d…3f3fbacked No | 63c | 79.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 63c | 78.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 77.38$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.62 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2604…27c1backed No | 39c | 76.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 52c | 66.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 52 | 11.5%6 W · 46 L | -11.8wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x96c5…728bbacked No | 27c | 65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 62c | 63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcebe…0720backed No | 52c | 62.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed Yes | 54c | 58.82$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59cd…716fbacked No | 80c | 44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 80c | 41.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +7.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xba9e…bb59backed No | 39c | 38.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe09b…0a70backed No | 38c | 37.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x273f…ef14backed Yes | 30c | 35.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a3…962fbacked Yes | 65c | 32.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe8…6d0abacked No | 50c | 30.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e82…a32fbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0385…7ffabacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…a8a9backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…227bbacked No | 73c | 16.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 80c | 15.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf8…03b2backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…ba2fbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump announce a U.S.-China AI Safety Channel?this page
- Will Trump announce AI export restrictions relief for China?No won
- Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt?Yes won
- Will Trump announce a US-China Board of Trade?Yes won
- Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?No won
- Will Trump announce the release of detained Americans?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.