TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x670d…3f3f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
63
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Ukraine, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Ukraine at 56 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2026, EDT2218.2%4 W · 18 L-3.4wins-0.15per pick34cpaid-70.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.19
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 0.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.91
France vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Argentina vs. Egypt end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 0.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.06
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$28.13
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+60.3%+$60.35
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$55
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.57
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.41
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$69.49
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$39.38
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 22 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT2128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-30.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+203%+$134
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+67.3%+$33.64
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$55.73
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$18.67
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.52
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.47
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.13
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.85
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$135.51
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+112.8%+$124.04
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$155
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+310.5%+$310.46
All 21 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+27.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 25, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid+8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-57.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick19cpaid+309.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 6, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$16.67
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hyperliquid listed on Coinbase in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 19, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$16.6
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.