Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Hyperliquid dip to $30 in November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3496ffd43bea7c19b37aa5cdd34a254cdd170624e107eb3ccaf0295718ae8981
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,623
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,474
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,623 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7b8…2c1fbacked Yes | 28c | 8,508$2,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,133.68 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf57…77c7backed Yes | 19c | 6,109$1,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,951.77 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -78%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…6a92backed Yes | 14c | 4,457$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,839.06 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 4,123$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…e7e6backed Yes | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,799.99 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…ed7dbacked Yes | 56c | 1,830$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.83 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8736…7ba8backed Yes | 32c | 1,125$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6561…c074backed Yes | 65c | 1,124$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.76 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…f3cebacked Yes | 17c | 904.14$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.14 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3694…950fbacked Yes | 27c | 896.3$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.53 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 20cpaid | +137.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Yes | 23c | 642$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +205.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e3…3fb1backed Yes | 42c | 600$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +140%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff3…00b3backed Yes | 52c | 536.96$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.02 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 38cpaid | +111.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ac…fa5ebacked Yes | 27c | 533.27$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +182.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x980f…778cbacked Yes | 26c | 510.49$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 30cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa82a…be8cbacked Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Yes | 52c | 382.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.66 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 73c | 349.99$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.99 | 130 | 53.8%70 W · 60 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e9…8f9fbacked Yes | 25c | 344$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.73 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae8…0e50backed Yes | 16c | 319.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.05 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 11c | 304.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.79 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bae…55b5backed Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6f…7d62backed No | 57c | 290$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4b…8aa4backed Yes | 31c | 265.76$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.66 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0f…ee23backed Yes | 27c | 250$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82c0…2892backed Yes | 24c | 248.62$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.62 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d8…e6afbacked No | 77c | 235$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9f…0031backed Yes | 18c | 225$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…7e02backed Yes | 28c | 212.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.14 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf245…1df4backed Yes | 10c | 209.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.32 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x555e…6bb8backed Yes | 12c | 208.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +240.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3129…22edbacked Yes | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdcd…7865backed Yes | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8b…1ea1backed Yes | 18c | 199.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.99 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 18c | 190.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.19 | 54 | 11.1%6 W · 48 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05da…1bbcbacked Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcae0…c7b0backed Yes | 57c | 162.11$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b1…3a0abacked Yes | 79c | 161$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf06…a200backed Yes | 25c | 160$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9be…a340backed Yes | 12c | 158.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc776…0cecbacked Yes | 12c | 152.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…0366backed Yes | 18c | 146.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.46 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4095…7badbacked Yes | 12c | 139.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…e265backed Yes | 21c | 133.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.33 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c79…f7adbacked Yes | 23c | 129.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.95 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4700…41cebacked No | 75c | 121.7$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.28 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x004f…5b77backed Yes | 30c | 118.61$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee5…4dfebacked Yes | 17c | 115.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +134.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 38c | 111$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…9891backed Yes | 46c | 110$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf93d…f36dbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 28cpaid | +263.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8033…4795backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.38per pick | 33cpaid | +159.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c1…17c4backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 27cpaid | +163.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc09…4461backed No | 21c | 95.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eec…c999backed Yes | 20c | 95.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.46 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -36%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61cf…49d5backed Yes | 14c | 85.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ca…6ed5backed Yes | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x192b…a3fcbacked Yes | 24c | 84.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d46…e060backed No | 78c | 83.47$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3af7…7e34backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +313.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…ed7dbacked Yes | 18c | 69.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…b38cbacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc555…38e7backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 72c | 57.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x670d…3f3fbacked Yes | 59c | 53.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b7d4backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 46c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c56…6d26backed Yes | 52c | 38.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab28…4cc6backed No | 72c | 27.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d4…03a2backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0538…3a5cbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.6wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x910e…29bcbacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30f7…f224backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06af…3741backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $30 in November?this page
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in November?No won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $40 in November?Yes won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $50 in November?No won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $60 in November?No won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $70 in November?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.