Middle East · resolved market

Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa77b0fe6af6adbf62a04d4bdbf9fb7a0eac951b506dbc6b68ecf452c41ce333f

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 8, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $2,558,800

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,558,800 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 663 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1a5b…1439backed Yes	1c	114,114$871 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$870.71	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	+1.3wins	+0.06per pick	16cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd414…a4dbbacked Yes	1c	87,288$542 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$542.19	64	39.1%25 W · 39 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	35cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes	3c	84,030$2,752 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,752.13	175	30.9%54 W · 121 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6872…876fbacked Yes	1c	83,511$692 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$691.55	96	13.5%13 W · 83 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0444…23afbacked Yes	4c	82,824$3,005 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,004.78	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes	1c	70,000$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	264	29.2%77 W · 187 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x170f…095bbacked Yes	2c	68,293$1,248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,247.64	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	+2.6wins	+0.11per pick	10cpaid	+122.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb51…742dbacked Yes	3c	67,894$1,913 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,913.14	40	42.5%17 W · 23 L	-3.8wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x515e…747cbacked Yes	18c	62,668$11,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11,100	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.10per pick	57cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc44a…8da6backed Yes	1c	53,036$663 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$662.67	71	23.9%17 W · 54 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff2a…a2aebacked Yes	5c	45,115$2,160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,160	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7525…cde1backed Yes	3c	38,510$1,194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,194.32	45	37.8%17 W · 28 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25b7…cc0ebacked Yes	0c	36,400$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.4	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	-43.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed Yes	4c	34,501$1,552 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,551.71	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dea…e49fbacked Yes	3c	34,005$900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$900	51	51%26 W · 25 L	+3.5wins	+0.07per pick	44cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc5f0…c5c3backed Yes	2c	33,598$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$699.91	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-1.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5be9…4ddcbacked Yes	3c	31,803$838 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$838	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-62.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde7b…5f4bbacked No	75c	30,006$22,553 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,452.67	152	30.3%46 W · 106 L	+5.7wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb425…c80bbacked Yes	1c	29,035$353 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$352.79	44	20.5%9 W · 35 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5723…da89backed Yes	0c	24,871$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	29cpaid	-50.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes	2c	24,140$376 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$376.04	284	27.8%79 W · 205 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6200…e6e3backed Yes	2c	24,007$543 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$542.79	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b5a…2e45backed Yes	3c	23,771$738 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$738.38	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	+2.1wins	+0.12per pick	27cpaid	+93.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6404…7c7abacked Yes	0c	23,340$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.84	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcdb7…282bbacked Yes	2c	22,473$467 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$466.59	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x52b7…4597backed Yes	2c	22,406$345 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$345.34	126	54%68 W · 58 L	+18.8wins	+0.15per pick	39cpaid	+128.9%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	21,381$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.16	507	1.4%7 W · 500 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes	28c	21,272$5,956 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,955.74	62	3.2%2 W · 60 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb1b…efb5backed Yes	14c	20,567$2,801 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,800.53	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-2.5wins	-0.17per pick	30cpaid	-61.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf603…82f1backed Yes	4c	19,475$715 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$714.51	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes	5c	18,161$895 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$895.44	79	46.8%37 W · 42 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa16a…33a1backed Yes	1c	17,699$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.6	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes	4c	15,808$590 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$590.34	136	39%53 W · 83 L	+12.0wins	+0.09per pick	30cpaid	+89.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaade…0e88backed Yes	2c	15,141$363 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$363.1	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0941…5481backed Yes	3c	14,775$448 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$447.57	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-51.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf748…ecb8backed Yes	5c	13,503$620 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$619.71	43	34.9%15 W · 28 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-33.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x893d…da13backed Yes	2c	13,345$312 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$312.02	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+1.8wins	+0.14per pick	33cpaid	+54.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe023…2669backed Yes	1c	12,970$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.45	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-1.4wins	-0.15per pick	26cpaid	-80.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f14…6748backed Yes	1c	12,597$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.48	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.17per pick	8cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5770…4397backed Yes	2c	12,500$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-65.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x590a…26ffbacked Yes	5c	12,260$623 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$622.92	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.16per pick	34cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2278…1d55backed Yes	1c	12,054$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-1.9wins	-0.13per pick	33cpaid	-59.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9bd9…d4ecbacked Yes	3c	11,759$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380.23	33	3%1 W · 32 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-82.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x420e…e3c9backed Yes	5c	11,318$609 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$609.36	187	38%71 W · 116 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-19%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x192d…9254backed Yes	2c	11,031$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$274.54	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40f8…327dbacked Yes	3c	10,924$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$309.86	22	50%11 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-27%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a1f…c556backed Yes	6c	10,508$650 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$650	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e87…57afbacked Yes	13c	10,461$1,366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,365.85	24	12.5%3 W · 21 L	-1.8wins	-0.07per pick	20cpaid	-65.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5d9…be50backed Yes	6c	10,133$571 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$570.52	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.09per pick	24cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc666…e9e2backed Yes	3c	10,110$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$290	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	36cpaid	-43.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dc5…a303backed Yes	4c	10,055$413 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$412.84	102	27.5%28 W · 74 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddcd…725fbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-80%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…5ad0backed Yes	2c	10,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+1.5wins	+0.10per pick	17cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93d0…2c31backed Yes	1c	9,856$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	21c	9,305$1,920 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,919.59	896	17.1%153 W · 743 L	-57.2wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-35%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1db3…d49bbacked Yes	32c	9,205$2,980 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,980	28	21.4%6 W · 22 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	28cpaid	-60%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5973…5e13backed Yes	10c	8,982$919 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$919.19	91	16.5%15 W · 76 L	-6.9wins	-0.08per pick	24cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1424…2c7fbacked Yes	1c	8,250$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	57	31.6%18 W · 39 L	+3.3wins	+0.06per pick	26cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x50f1…5222backed Yes	4c	8,208$358 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$357.54	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.15per pick	18cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x934c…cd38backed Yes	10c	8,201$858 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$858.11	63	58.7%37 W · 26 L	+11.0wins	+0.17per pick	41cpaid	+37.3%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0x7994…c512backed No	70c	8,168$5,715 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,452.19	115	37.4%43 W · 72 L	+5.0wins	+0.04per pick	33cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf04c…b823backed Yes	0c	7,962$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	-46.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e6f…67e3backed Yes	7c	7,850$518 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$517.74	73	17.8%13 W · 60 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad7b…f55bbacked Yes	5c	7,752$415 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$414.77	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.4wins	+0.36per pick	39cpaid	+140.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x368b…2458backed Yes	3c	7,728$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.06	29	44.8%13 W · 16 L	+2.0wins	+0.07per pick	38cpaid	+22.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xefc0…20e5backed Yes	20c	7,449$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	24cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb06b…452cbacked Yes	2c	7,070$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.21	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xae27…c857backed Yes	3c	7,000$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-41%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fd5…382cbacked Yes	3c	6,736$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.37	32	25%8 W · 24 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc22…155fbacked Yes	2c	6,438$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.28	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	+16.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes	4c	6,239$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.7	137	46%63 W · 74 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86cd…504cbacked Yes	5c	6,021$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$284.62	17	94.1%16 W · 1 L	+7.3wins	+0.43per pick	51cpaid	+118.5%equal weight	69+0.17 edge/pick
0x1e1f…c855backed Yes	7c	6,000$402 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$402	106	39.6%42 W · 64 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x70ac…f605backed Yes	6c	5,919$384 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$384.12	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+2.5wins	+0.25per pick	15cpaid	+180.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x810f…8783backed Yes	4c	5,870$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237.9	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-3.6wins	-0.20per pick	42cpaid	-65.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4afd…1241backed Yes	3c	5,857$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.66	27	22.2%6 W · 21 L	+1.3wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes	11c	5,748$615 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$614.92	109	13.8%15 W · 94 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8888…77f4backed Yes	2c	5,666$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.88	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3432…86bbbacked No	68c	5,612$3,795 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,816.78	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	-63%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf900…cd0cbacked No	71c	5,482$3,903 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,579.68	98	32.7%32 W · 66 L	-14.9wins	-0.15per pick	48cpaid	-46%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x345d…4e41backed Yes	4c	5,135$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.04	50	52%26 W · 24 L	+6.2wins	+0.12per pick	40cpaid	+29.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc87f…b7aabacked Yes	4c	4,914$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.09per pick	31cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x25a4…2694backed Yes	3c	4,700$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.6	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+2.2wins	+0.17per pick	37cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7f59…3637backed Yes	21c	4,590$957 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$957.37	30	26.7%8 W · 22 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	32cpaid	-56%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x72de…a5edbacked Yes	9c	4,517$427 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$426.82	46	23.9%11 W · 35 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfb10…bd85backed Yes	6c	4,494$277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$277.34	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd8e…4fd2backed No	64c	4,422$2,850 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,571.67	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.08per pick	67cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fd8…428fbacked Yes	0c	4,375$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+0.9wins	+0.08per pick	37cpaid	+2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb326…f317backed Yes	2c	4,310$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-79.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	10c	4,272$437 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$437.22	501	30.5%153 W · 348 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde87…11a2backed Yes	21c	4,264$883 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$882.65	118	33.9%40 W · 78 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	+29.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2dc5…da90backed Yes	14c	4,207$604 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$603.81	27	29.6%8 W · 19 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	24cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5682…2f82backed Yes	2c	4,086$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.7	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xcb28…ad8bbacked Yes	4c	4,075$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ff7…d747backed Yes	4c	4,050$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.48	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	+1.5wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd8aa…e3e9backed Yes	38c	3,989$1,526 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,525.66	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb11b…353fbacked Yes	3c	3,922$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	18cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x29ba…5a07backed Yes	9c	3,886$349 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$349	25	16%4 W · 21 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-72.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7187…f08bbacked Yes	3c	3,868$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.04	43	37.2%16 W · 27 L	+3.3wins	+0.08per pick	30cpaid	-29%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	6c	3,818$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246	423	29.1%123 W · 300 L	+14.7wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	-12%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event