Middle East · resolved market

Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 11, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0bc31efd888102b6184331263aab032141834449b66915fc92a2f5b5c60fd1b9

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 8, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $31,364

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,364 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1025…942abacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa259…0d7abacked Yes	0c	5,066$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes	1c	1,825$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.46	228	2.6%6 W · 222 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	2cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	2c	1,794$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.75	492	8.7%43 W · 449 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes	6c	1,117$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.03	174	14.4%25 W · 149 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	+17.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb78e…30e3backed Yes	6c	1,040$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.4	33	39.4%13 W · 20 L	+2.6wins	+0.08per pick	31cpaid	+106%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb75…e2e8backed Yes	4c	1,010$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+272.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x5be9…4ddcbacked Yes	13c	1,004$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-62.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e6f…67e3backed Yes	2c	999.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	73	17.8%13 W · 60 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes	3c	823.29$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.91	82	7.3%6 W · 76 L	-3.8wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-79.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	5c	817.45$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.42	413	6.8%28 W · 385 L	-13.6wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34ba…5d1ebacked Yes	7c	768.73$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.71	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	10cpaid	+103.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x934c…cd38backed Yes	9c	731.8$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.55	63	58.7%37 W · 26 L	+11.0wins	+0.17per pick	41cpaid	+37.3%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes	4c	714.8$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.27	126	16.7%21 W · 105 L	+6.1wins	+0.05per pick	12cpaid	+41%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	2c	703.36$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.28	507	1.4%7 W · 500 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6cc…e9a2backed Yes	6c	674.12$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6709…af18backed Yes	4c	627.39$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.55	62	48.4%30 W · 32 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6c8…892ebacked Yes	4c	586.98$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.38	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+66%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91a4…ac49backed Yes	6c	531.08$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-1.9wins	-0.19per pick	39cpaid	-74%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5e9f…2a2fbacked Yes	7c	523.95$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.45	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-2.5wins	-0.19per pick	35cpaid	-78.6%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x55d0…f655backed Yes	5c	510.45$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.03	140	36.4%51 W · 89 L	+8.7wins	+0.06per pick	30cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6659…4858backed Yes	5c	490.2$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+47.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x489b…7433backed Yes	4c	488.01$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	31	6.5%2 W · 29 L	-6.1wins	-0.20per pick	26cpaid	-91%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x3432…86bbbacked Yes	6c	471.34$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.21	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	-63%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x82ca…7cb7backed Yes	3c	438.91$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	25	28%7 W · 18 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	24cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes	8c	436.87$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.27	47	19.1%9 W · 38 L	-3.6wins	-0.08per pick	27cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9285…4d48backed Yes	5c	421.37$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cdf…5bc1backed Yes	5c	319.14$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.83	42	59.5%25 W · 17 L	+5.6wins	+0.13per pick	46cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc3ff…9708backed Yes	5c	305.98$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.43	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	32cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf704…8b68backed Yes	6c	301.36$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.78	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-2.3wins	-0.12per pick	23cpaid	-76.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa901…d418backed Yes	3c	295.85$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.19	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a57…493ebacked Yes	10c	291.84$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.77	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-2.9wins	-0.15per pick	50cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcc48…04edbacked Yes	12c	243.69$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.33	48	31.3%15 W · 33 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-21%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes	5c	233.01$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.82	26	34.6%9 W · 17 L	+3.1wins	+0.12per pick	23cpaid	+91.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes	6c	217$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.51	242	34.3%83 W · 159 L	+11.8wins	+0.05per pick	29cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bd0…bdefbacked Yes	6c	172$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc701…cdf3backed Yes	8c	150$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	30cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb723…3286backed Yes	12c	86.06$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.39	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.9wins	+0.23per pick	27cpaid	+72.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 11, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event