Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 7, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1b7c643817ac4edb2fabbcfdfab358e3713de063c2ae77c619cdffd52f0895d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,311,013
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,311,013 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes | 0c | 1,131,960$2,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,109.57 | 62 | 3.2%2 W · 60 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 25,257$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.12 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd675…153dbacked Yes | 0c | 19,061$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d58…1aeabacked Yes | 0c | 13,538$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.63 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 1c | 8,833$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.68 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fd…36d1backed Yes | 0c | 5,451$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 6c | 3,673$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.41 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1f…c556backed Yes | 9c | 3,406$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes | 8c | 3,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.99 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda9e…ac09backed Yes | 4c | 2,418$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.92 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 12c | 2,086$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.94 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,949$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…2d42backed Yes | 11c | 1,837$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.41per pick | 19cpaid | +159.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…fd61backed Yes | 5c | 1,823$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 1,298$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.11 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 4c | 1,222$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.07 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16a…b564backed Yes | 3c | 1,168$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf75…3880backed Yes | 6c | 1,146$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.3 | 133 | 21.8%29 W · 104 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2822…3f0cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,081$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.87 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb7…d9b8backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf784…ab48backed Yes | 1c | 930.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 4c | 865.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf559…a067backed Yes | 13c | 783.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5973…5e13backed Yes | 5c | 717.81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 91 | 16.5%15 W · 76 L | -6.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 5c | 687.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 129 | 18.6%24 W · 105 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ba…5933backed Yes | 7c | 617.71$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb75…e2e8backed Yes | 9c | 604.24$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +272.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed Yes | 5c | 593.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…7547backed Yes | 2c | 572.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 24cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdc…444dbacked Yes | 9c | 562.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ea…b02abacked Yes | 3c | 500.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 105 | 13.3%14 W · 91 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab57…0319backed Yes | 2c | 480$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 6cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…85c6backed Yes | 9c | 469.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x489b…7433backed Yes | 12c | 426.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -6.1wins | -0.20per pick | 26cpaid | -91%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…9f40backed Yes | 3c | 411.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…4548backed Yes | 5c | 409.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d5…fb20backed Yes | 11c | 387.32$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5a…2e45backed Yes | 16c | 380.3$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.09 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 3c | 319.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 281.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe18…d3a0backed Yes | 12c | 269.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9481…7995backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +119.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf7…b963backed Yes | 8c | 240.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf904…26e5backed Yes | 10c | 233.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +13.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xfb10…bd85backed Yes | 9c | 225.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 6c | 218.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 119 | 9.2%11 W · 108 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed Yes | 5c | 201.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 138 | 55.8%77 W · 61 L | +10.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fa…7a1fbacked Yes | 11c | 167.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.34per pick | 38cpaid | +278.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…424cbacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x020f…de5ebacked Yes | 8c | 149.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.34per pick | 39cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcb28…ad8bbacked Yes | 11c | 135.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7187…f08bbacked Yes | 9c | 110.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -29%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6de…dd43backed Yes | 12c | 102.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +216.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a3…b441backed Yes | 12c | 101.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc65e…5a22backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07bc…4af4backed Yes | 79c | 26.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 7, 2026?this page
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 12, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 13, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 14, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 15, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 16, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 17, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 18, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 19, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 20, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 21, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 22, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 24, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 25, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 26, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 27, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 28, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 29, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 3, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 31, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 4, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 5, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 6, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.