Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 10, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5b38a0bf22d538192e09aeb613277fc075187cbefc5649c128e8ab65048d0a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,212
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,212 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 9c | 9,060$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.53 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1192…274abacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,524$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8169…0f47backed Yes | 2c | 2,680$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2193…41ebbacked Yes | 0c | 2,615$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a0…2c5ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,347$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.84 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67c1…8666backed Yes | 1c | 1,700$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91a4…ac49backed Yes | 9c | 1,637$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.9 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,454$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…af18backed Yes | 5c | 1,440$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.76 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6f…67e3backed Yes | 1c | 1,320$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 7c | 1,268$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.2 | 140 | 36.4%51 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab8…9c9bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,204$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 5c | 1,076$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…4ddcbacked Yes | 16c | 1,032$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x790f…2b81backed Yes | 11c | 952$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 8c | 912.45$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.56 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 12c | 894.08$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.89 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3432…86bbbacked Yes | 10c | 836.19$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -63%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 789.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes | 9c | 764.33$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.17 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c8…892ebacked Yes | 7c | 715.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +66%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 695.91$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.4 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25d4…9b17backed Yes | 17c | 577.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 13c | 554.1$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.75 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…924ebacked Yes | 9c | 551.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1b…6cc0backed Yes | 15c | 543.57$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.43 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +191%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes | 5c | 512.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f59…3637backed Yes | 6c | 505.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf59…9f6ebacked Yes | 20c | 504.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a57…493ebacked Yes | 20c | 497.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 12c | 495.69$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x489b…7433backed Yes | 4c | 491.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -6.1wins | -0.20per pick | 26cpaid | -91%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x34ba…5d1ebacked Yes | 9c | 484.89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 478.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x047a…cf22backed Yes | 10c | 460.03$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 45cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…950fbacked Yes | 6c | 433.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb75…e2e8backed Yes | 6c | 411.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +272.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x181a…fff6backed Yes | 8c | 394$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed Yes | 5c | 352.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x048e…6e41backed Yes | 17c | 325.7$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2a…6f46backed Yes | 6c | 315.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 21cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd33c…f93fbacked Yes | 18c | 312.97$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.65 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ff…9708backed Yes | 7c | 305.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 11c | 302.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 10c | 297$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6447…8075backed Yes | 16c | 281.63$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9155…de7cbacked Yes | 17c | 275.97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 70 | 24.3%17 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41d3…3db7backed Yes | 5c | 250$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 17c | 247.39$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9481…7995backed Yes | 8c | 239.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +119.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Yes | 9c | 223.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 159 | 22.6%36 W · 123 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…4548backed Yes | 7c | 206.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…b882backed Yes | 10c | 199.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 9c | 189.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…4d48backed Yes | 18c | 188.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 16c | 178.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa901…d418backed Yes | 6c | 158.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 7c | 141.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b3…f55cbacked Yes | 21c | 139.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2db7…8f9bbacked Yes | 20c | 130.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb868…5e23backed Yes | 20c | 124.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 10c | 121.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed No | 79c | 90$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…0b8dbacked Yes | 20c | 76.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2787…49fdbacked Yes | 20c | 73.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3397…9ec1backed Yes | 20c | 67.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93e2…92b9backed Yes | 16c | 67.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 79c | 62.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 78c | 54.8$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 71c | 16.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 161 | 73.9%119 W · 42 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 10, 2026?this page
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 12, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 13, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 14, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 15, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 16, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 17, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 18, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 19, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 20, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 21, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 22, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 24, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 25, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 26, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 27, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 28, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 29, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 3, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 31, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 4, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 5, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 6, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 7, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.