TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 9, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$918,914

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $918,914 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 309 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3dea…e49fbacked No0c180,940$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.65151%26 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd414…a4dbbacked No1c41,259$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.236439.1%25 W · 39 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0599…6a46backed No1c34,849$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.88633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-53.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No0c22,270$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.254769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6872…876fbacked No5c20,044$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923.659613.5%13 W · 83 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-54.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8db9…383ebacked No0c20,040$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.042748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc118…9410backed No0c15,216$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.191612.5%2 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f5e…27a0backed No0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7769…7c39backed No0c14,429$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.431241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick29cpaid-5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x53bf…bc10backed No3c12,684$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.1933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x934c…cd38backed Yes62c10,625$6,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,027.036358.7%37 W · 26 L+11.0wins+0.17per pick41cpaid+37.3%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x116c…322dbacked No3c9,993$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed No8c7,594$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.182441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x002c…8c0bbacked No71c7,551$5,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,388.511050%5 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-19.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd656…f11cbacked No2c6,190$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.95520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-70.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a1f…c556backed No3c5,727$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-36.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No2c5,553$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.195071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ffb…a834backed No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109434%32 W · 62 L+7.7wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed No27c4,886$1,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,304.3132243.5%140 W · 182 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes19c4,131$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,351.2830649%150 W · 156 L+77.8wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+105.8%equal weight76+0.24 edge/pick
0x55d0…f655backed Yes72c3,560$2,557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,003.0914036.4%51 W · 89 L+8.7wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-0.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2dc5…da90backed Yes13c3,380$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,932.972729.6%8 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-17.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb326…f317backed No3c3,333$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-79.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b75…6bb0backed Yes31c3,262$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,261.91741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+47.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ea7…bcd9backed No53c3,222$1,722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,721.552540%10 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f59…3637backed No49c3,220$1,582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,582.253026.7%8 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-56%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No3c3,164$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.432438.2%20 W · 223 L+0.4wins0.00per pick8cpaid-47.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed No3c3,110$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.5214352.4%75 W · 68 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked No2c3,008$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.134940.8%20 W · 29 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+34.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes31c3,002$932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,069.766129.5%18 W · 43 L-0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa16a…33a1backed No3c2,647$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.3160%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6447…8075backed No20c2,340$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.784641.3%19 W · 27 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+72.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7187…f08bbacked No3c2,056$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.24337.2%16 W · 27 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick30cpaid-29%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x25a4…2694backed No3c2,000$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick37cpaid-2.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8e6f…67e3backed Yes21c1,971$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,564.57317.8%13 W · 60 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No20c1,831$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.9650130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed No8c1,770$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.7628734.5%99 W · 188 L+21.3wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+0.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7994…c512backed No67c1,717$1,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,158.2311537.4%43 W · 72 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e9a…5d99backed No2c1,695$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2912744.9%57 W · 70 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+91.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xac8f…feddbacked No6c1,690$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10121034.3%72 W · 138 L+9.3wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+42.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe023…2669backed No3c1,600$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick26cpaid-80.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x67c1…8666backed No3c1,589$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.26714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-34%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes69c1,587$1,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.0777636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf900…cd0cbacked No68c1,577$1,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,071.039832.7%32 W · 66 L-14.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-46%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x1e67…44bcbacked No10c1,509$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.33267.7%2 W · 24 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No15c1,456$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.8615625%39 W · 117 L+17.9wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+79.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb38e…272bbacked No1c1,440$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.08468.7%4 W · 42 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-68.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1a5…d228backed No12c1,329$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.354827.1%13 W · 35 L+7.0wins+0.15per pick13cpaid+72.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc5f0…c5c3backed No15c1,298$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200110%0 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5726…10f5backed No13c1,270$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.571533.3%5 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+43.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes42c1,238$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716.0635652.8%188 W · 168 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x88dc…7a0abacked Yes41c1,237$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.472123.8%5 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-51.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c97…988cbacked No6c1,194$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8076…fcbfbacked Yes42c1,185$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.773941%16 W · 23 L-6.4wins-0.17per pick58cpaid-36.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2d7b…c33abacked No51c1,150$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.66540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-41.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No7c1,149$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.824928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e3e…d2acbacked Yes36c1,114$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$718.13100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+84.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed No12c1,103$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.248036.3%29 W · 51 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-24.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1806…5234backed No5c1,102$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5140%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc03…f66fbacked No12c1,100$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134150%0 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x969b…db70backed No1c1,072$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes4c1,071$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,028.6417414.4%25 W · 149 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5973…5e13backed Yes32c1,033$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702.389116.5%15 W · 76 L-6.9wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-30.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe6d7…c6f9backed No4c1,015$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4280%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes71c947.63$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.6928943.6%126 W · 163 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x738b…6dc9backed Yes44c908.33$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.3310246.1%47 W · 55 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x61d7…7848backed Yes4c900$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8643050%15 W · 15 L+4.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+95.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xeef6…7547backed Yes48c896.38$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.381643.8%7 W · 9 L+3.2wins+0.20per pick24cpaid+61.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5be9…4ddcbacked Yes43c877.11$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.111020%2 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93d0…2c31backed No2c869.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201030%3 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-48.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b7…4597backed No2c814.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5112654%68 W · 58 L+18.8wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+128.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x0f02…2040backed No2c809.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x695c…10a1backed No18c808.99$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.5920243.1%87 W · 115 L+30.9wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+39.1%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x55db…2031backed Yes22c803.33$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.52759.3%16 W · 11 L+7.3wins+0.27per pick32cpaid+87.6%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x7c8d…31e4backed No24c800$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.24736.2%17 W · 30 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-36.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1315…a84abacked No5c785.67$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.283450%17 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcaf5…41abbacked No7c781.42$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.913339.4%13 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e88…df66backed Yes39c777.16$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.161346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick32cpaid+107.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked No2c770.31$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6610913.8%15 W · 94 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-42.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked No74c749.99$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.8813544.4%60 W · 75 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-1.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaadc…d8efbacked Yes33c735.79$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.986636.4%24 W · 42 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed No7c730.43$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.673138.7%12 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed No3c716.65$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9210634%36 W · 70 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-17.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf75…3880backed Yes23c661.22$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.9513321.8%29 W · 104 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-31.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf784…ab48backed No59c612.04$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.434528.9%13 W · 32 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-42.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x171e…e046backed Yes18c610.44$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.273138.7%12 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+28.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf350…f3ffbacked No30c601.9$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.572142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-32.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0262…a9d2backed No71c601.06$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.956735.8%24 W · 43 L-7.1wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-36%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x300c…6a92backed No2c600$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.619449.5%96 W · 98 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2be8…573dbacked No14c600$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.881729.4%5 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick17cpaid+22.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5550…c92fbacked Yes43c592.63$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.1944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf500…7d09backed Yes39c564.99$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.021844.4%8 W · 10 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick30cpaid-7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6c6c…be63backed No4c544.62$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9c9…646cbacked No12c523.11$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.771947.4%9 W · 10 L+2.9wins+0.15per pick32cpaid+10.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No64c510.79$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.9631728.7%91 W · 226 L-35.7wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-48.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x97c2…55d6backed No80c505.63$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.74445.5%20 W · 24 L-5.9wins-0.14per pick59cpaid-31.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xecd7…c7e1backed Yes15c500$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.521250%6 W · 6 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+26.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8674…0d1ebacked No32c499.25$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.7312638.1%48 W · 78 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-20.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1197…5409backed No36c492.68$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes15c488.24$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.214719.1%9 W · 38 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-35.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.