Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 9, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a57dd8923b78b55b1aa48a53260787d2ae5c54f3b265d24c1e717e791d0fada
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $918,914
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $918,914 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 309 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dea…e49fbacked No | 0c | 180,940$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.6 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd414…a4dbbacked No | 1c | 41,259$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.23 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…6a46backed No | 1c | 34,849$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 0c | 22,270$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.25 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked No | 5c | 20,044$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.65 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db9…383ebacked No | 0c | 20,040$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…9410backed No | 0c | 15,216$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.19 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5e…27a0backed No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7769…7c39backed No | 0c | 14,429$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53bf…bc10backed No | 3c | 12,684$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.1 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x934c…cd38backed Yes | 62c | 10,625$6,598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,027.03 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…322dbacked No | 3c | 9,993$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…edf1backed No | 8c | 7,594$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.18 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x002c…8c0bbacked No | 71c | 7,551$5,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,388.51 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd656…f11cbacked No | 2c | 6,190$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1f…c556backed No | 3c | 5,727$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 5,553$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.19 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 27c | 4,886$1,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,304.31 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 19c | 4,131$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,351.28 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 72c | 3,560$2,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.09 | 140 | 36.4%51 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc5…da90backed Yes | 13c | 3,380$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,932.97 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb326…f317backed No | 3c | 3,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b75…6bb0backed Yes | 31c | 3,262$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,261.9 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea7…bcd9backed No | 53c | 3,222$1,722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,721.55 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f59…3637backed No | 49c | 3,220$1,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,582.25 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 3c | 3,164$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.43 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 3c | 3,110$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.52 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked No | 2c | 3,008$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.13 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 31c | 3,002$932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,069.76 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa16a…33a1backed No | 3c | 2,647$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.31 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6447…8075backed No | 20c | 2,340$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.78 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7187…f08bbacked No | 3c | 2,056$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.2 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -29%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25a4…2694backed No | 3c | 2,000$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6f…67e3backed Yes | 21c | 1,971$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,564.5 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 20c | 1,831$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.96 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 8c | 1,770$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.76 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed No | 67c | 1,717$1,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,158.23 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed No | 2c | 1,695$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked No | 6c | 1,690$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe023…2669backed No | 3c | 1,600$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67c1…8666backed No | 3c | 1,589$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.26 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 69c | 1,587$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.07 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…cd0cbacked No | 68c | 1,577$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071.03 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -14.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1e67…44bcbacked No | 10c | 1,509$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.33 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 15c | 1,456$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.86 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…272bbacked No | 1c | 1,440$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed No | 12c | 1,329$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.35 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f0…c5c3backed No | 15c | 1,298$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5726…10f5backed No | 13c | 1,270$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.57 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 42c | 1,238$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.06 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88dc…7a0abacked Yes | 41c | 1,237$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.47 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c97…988cbacked No | 6c | 1,194$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8076…fcbfbacked Yes | 42c | 1,185$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.77 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -6.4wins | -0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7b…c33abacked No | 51c | 1,150$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 7c | 1,149$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.82 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…d2acbacked Yes | 36c | 1,114$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.1 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed No | 12c | 1,103$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.24 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1806…5234backed No | 5c | 1,102$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc03…f66fbacked No | 12c | 1,100$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x969b…db70backed No | 1c | 1,072$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 4c | 1,071$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,028.64 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5973…5e13backed Yes | 32c | 1,033$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.38 | 91 | 16.5%15 W · 76 L | -6.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…c6f9backed No | 4c | 1,015$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 71c | 947.63$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.69 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x738b…6dc9backed Yes | 44c | 908.33$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.33 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61d7…7848backed Yes | 4c | 900$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…7547backed Yes | 48c | 896.38$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.38 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 24cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…4ddcbacked Yes | 43c | 877.11$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.11 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d0…2c31backed No | 2c | 869.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…4597backed No | 2c | 814.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +18.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0f02…2040backed No | 2c | 809.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 18c | 808.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.59 | 202 | 43.1%87 W · 115 L | +30.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x55db…2031backed Yes | 22c | 803.33$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.5 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +7.3wins | +0.27per pick | 32cpaid | +87.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8d…31e4backed No | 24c | 800$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.2 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1315…a84abacked No | 5c | 785.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 7c | 781.42$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.91 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e88…df66backed Yes | 39c | 777.16$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.16 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +107.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 2c | 770.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 109 | 13.8%15 W · 94 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 74c | 749.99$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.88 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaadc…d8efbacked Yes | 33c | 735.79$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.98 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed No | 7c | 730.43$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.67 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 3c | 716.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 106 | 34%36 W · 70 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf75…3880backed Yes | 23c | 661.22$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.95 | 133 | 21.8%29 W · 104 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf784…ab48backed No | 59c | 612.04$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.43 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x171e…e046backed Yes | 18c | 610.44$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.27 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 30c | 601.9$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.57 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0262…a9d2backed No | 71c | 601.06$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.95 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -36%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed No | 2c | 600$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2be8…573dbacked No | 14c | 600$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.88 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5550…c92fbacked Yes | 43c | 592.63$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf500…7d09backed Yes | 39c | 564.99$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.02 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6c…be63backed No | 4c | 544.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…646cbacked No | 12c | 523.11$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.77 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 64c | 510.79$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.96 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 80c | 505.63$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.7 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xecd7…c7e1backed Yes | 15c | 500$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.52 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked No | 32c | 499.25$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.73 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1197…5409backed No | 36c | 492.68$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes | 15c | 488.24$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.21 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 9, 2026?this page
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 12, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 13, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 14, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 15, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 16, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 17, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 18, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 19, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 20, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 21, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 22, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 24, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 25, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 26, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 27, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 28, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 29, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 3, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 31, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 4, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 5, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 6, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 7, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.