Middle East · resolved market

Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 6, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaada1be6811ba9d8e3d3b878131b96e37fa349d3f9e576b1432a5700eb4547b1

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $66,265

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,265 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5ac5…cf2ebacked Yes	18c	3,000$546 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$545.98	28	21.4%6 W · 22 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes	4c	2,260$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.34	72	1.4%1 W · 71 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	4cpaid	-67.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb10…bd85backed Yes	16c	2,098$326 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$325.7	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes	2c	2,000$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	127	44.9%57 W · 70 L	+11.9wins	+0.09per pick	36cpaid	+91.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3110…c98cbacked Yes	5c	1,870$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	2c	1,547$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.01	492	8.7%43 W · 449 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6339…141ebacked Yes	14c	1,400$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.85	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	42cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e6f…67e3backed Yes	2c	1,400$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.6	73	17.8%13 W · 60 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes	6c	1,375$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.7	82	7.3%6 W · 76 L	-3.8wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-79.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda2a…d889backed Yes	19c	1,072$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde87…11a2backed Yes	8c	1,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	118	33.9%40 W · 78 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	+29.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes	5c	855.99$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.38	118	18.6%22 W · 96 L	+6.8wins	+0.06per pick	13cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	833.05$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.36	713	5.6%40 W · 673 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	4c	748.69$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.67	199	5%10 W · 189 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	14c	712.8$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.15	413	6.8%28 W · 385 L	-13.6wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf784…ab48backed Yes	4c	698.63$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.65	45	28.9%13 W · 32 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes	18c	686.84$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.69	342	34.8%119 W · 223 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2822…3f0cbacked Yes	14c	679.65$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.96	44	11.4%5 W · 39 L	-2.5wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-48.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes	15c	644.14$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.69	40	0%0 W · 40 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf16a…b564backed Yes	9c	608.17$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.46	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	9cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes	13c	564.45$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.91	81	50.6%41 W · 40 L	+12.7wins	+0.16per pick	35cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0xe267…86e4backed Yes	6c	510.14$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	28	17.9%5 W · 23 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	8c	483.89$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.38	501	30.5%153 W · 348 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	9c	456.48$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.67	1,558	7.2%112 W · 1,446 L	-35.1wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbef7…0b4dbacked Yes	4c	435.6$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	77	27.3%21 W · 56 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4de…424cbacked Yes	18c	410.59$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.57	94	36.2%34 W · 60 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x388e…2078backed Yes	12c	383.02$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.29	91	53.8%49 W · 42 L	+7.2wins	+0.08per pick	46cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes	16c	375.19$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.75	106	34%36 W · 70 L	+6.5wins	+0.06per pick	28cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x61d7…7848backed Yes	10c	365.14$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.62	30	50%15 W · 15 L	+4.6wins	+0.15per pick	35cpaid	+95.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcd22…37f7backed Yes	14c	360.79$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe987…c84fbacked Yes	29c	336.75$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.72	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-61.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf75…3880backed Yes	13c	288.52$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.79	133	21.8%29 W · 104 L	-6.6wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-31.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x37ea…f395backed Yes	5c	277.04$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.01	146	9.6%14 W · 132 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae99…1c9dbacked Yes	16c	249.99$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.5	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-44%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe18…d3a0backed Yes	16c	202.27$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	42	14.3%6 W · 36 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b8d…a1aebacked Yes	11c	200.2$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.22	38	34.2%13 W · 25 L	-2.6wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb273…aa63backed Yes	11c	200$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.2	74	23%17 W · 57 L	+3.3wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf2a…a91fbacked Yes	19c	188.87$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.64	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-1.7wins	-0.09per pick	26cpaid	-59.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f17…e53dbacked Yes	17c	178.82$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	28	25%7 W · 21 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	+17.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes	14c	165.29$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.62	105	20%21 W · 84 L	-14.9wins	-0.14per pick	34cpaid	-57.5%equal weight	37-0.11 edge/pick
0xd45e…7497backed Yes	9c	122.49$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3a3…b441backed Yes	14c	121.09$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.31	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb39c…7cbfbacked Yes	17c	118.01$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes	11c	107.63$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.35	126	16.7%21 W · 105 L	+6.1wins	+0.05per pick	12cpaid	+41%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfad4…aa87backed Yes	17c	106.1$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.04	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.33per pick	17cpaid	+192.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x738b…6dc9backed Yes	12c	105.05$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.08	102	46.1%47 W · 55 L	+3.8wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3dd…cfc9backed Yes	13c	101$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.13	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	-2.3wins	-0.09per pick	26cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf3ca…60aebacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.1	45	55.6%25 W · 20 L	+2.5wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3774…b424backed Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.48	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.08per pick	17cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3b5…4c72backed Yes	22c	97.64$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.48	72	43.1%31 W · 41 L	+10.9wins	+0.15per pick	28cpaid	+45.7%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x75dc…8763backed Yes	19c	78.95$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5015…0d03backed Yes	15c	78.35$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	+4.4wins	+0.21per pick	22cpaid	+50.4%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6142…367bbacked Yes	16c	75.34$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.08	18	50%9 W · 9 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+42.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes	16c	73.75$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.74	242	24.4%59 W · 183 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	18c	73.02$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.42	896	17.1%153 W · 743 L	-57.2wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-35%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xda65…bce0backed No	74c	32.86$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.4	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf584…2497backed No	67c	20$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.6	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.13per pick	50cpaid	-6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47e7…7c61backed No	79c	17.61$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.62	115	54.8%63 W · 52 L	+4.8wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 6, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event