Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 3, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04e5ae4840e566b7750c438c0a31981f7b4f82f209c22ff0c8d1bc7b24e7c325
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $140,397
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $103,934
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,397 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf584…2497backed Yes | 0c | 14,761$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x939a…6f9abacked Yes | 7c | 12,771$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.47 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 0c | 10,300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 1c | 7,061$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 148 | 8.1%12 W · 136 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +238.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c6…19a3backed Yes | 1c | 6,538$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.27 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x045d…0501backed Yes | 2c | 5,045$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd92e…eddbbacked Yes | 0c | 4,735$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 4,361$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a12…c256backed Yes | 0c | 4,075$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2128…ba59backed Yes | 3c | 1,621$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 37cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…174fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,086$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -53%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8561…337bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae99…1c9dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -44%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe758…5da1backed Yes | 2c | 928.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked Yes | 1c | 923.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 123 | 62.6%77 W · 46 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee38…fd31backed Yes | 5c | 713.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb1…3c7abacked Yes | 73c | 685.5$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9603…bbd9backed Yes | 45c | 620.59$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.68 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +83.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb79c…f6c6backed Yes | 33c | 459.52$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2f…fb79backed Yes | 31c | 399.99$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.86 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d73…49b4backed Yes | 8c | 371.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 4c | 337.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4e…0a3dbacked Yes | 3c | 312.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -84%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed No | 20c | 300$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3e…3b79backed Yes | 13c | 296.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed Yes | 5c | 270.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…84febacked Yes | 6c | 245.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0265…c91cbacked Yes | 32c | 230.8$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6b…6be6backed Yes | 47c | 230$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.13 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…49c9backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x340b…f8dcbacked No | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +7.8wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +202.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 67c | 180.23$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.68 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c3…dde1backed Yes | 36c | 166.54$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd91d…145fbacked Yes | 51c | 151.6$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59cd…716fbacked No | 56c | 116.67$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.75 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4454…f6bfbacked No | 68c | 105$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1baa…6eb3backed No | 16c | 104.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.92 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +5.6wins | +0.17per pick | 10cpaid | +196.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…19bdbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb997…8734backed Yes | 79c | 86.08$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -5.2wins | -0.30per pick | 42cpaid | -85%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x85fd…4af4backed No | 74c | 84.92$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0e…73ecbacked Yes | 24c | 83.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b36…c228backed Yes | 41c | 48.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 53c | 45.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x727e…8b9dbacked No | 51c | 40.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88f3…d8dbbacked Yes | 54c | 33.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…e9cfbacked No | 75c | 24.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20f9…d25dbacked Yes | 79c | 12.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 3, 2026?this page
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 12, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 13, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 14, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 15, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 16, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 17, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 18, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 19, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 20, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 21, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 22, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 24, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 25, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 26, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 27, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 28, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 29, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 31, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 4, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 5, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 6, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 7, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.