Middle East · resolved market

Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 5, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c60b255ab8216d9724e896ea8f358d7fb13f15c9e8a3a44f249ca485b133229

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $142,006

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $142,006 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2d58…1aeabacked Yes	2c	25,501$402 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$401.91	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.16per pick	33cpaid	-78.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3774…b424backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.08per pick	17cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ac5…cf2ebacked Yes	12c	5,000$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$599.98	28	21.4%6 W · 22 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes	2c	4,250$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.5	432	12.5%54 W · 378 L	+11.0wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes	0c	3,227$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.18	72	1.4%1 W · 71 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	4cpaid	-67.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b44…264ebacked Yes	13c	2,505$322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$321.58	74	48.6%36 W · 38 L	+9.7wins	+0.13per pick	36cpaid	+156.6%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes	5c	2,122$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.88	362	27.9%101 W · 261 L	+11.6wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes	9c	2,020$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.86	82	7.3%6 W · 76 L	-3.8wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-79.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf784…ab48backed Yes	16c	2,002$318 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$318.08	45	28.9%13 W · 32 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x162f…798dbacked Yes	15c	2,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	166	38.6%64 W · 102 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-13%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde87…11a2backed Yes	14c	1,646$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.9	118	33.9%40 W · 78 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	+29.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae99…1c9dbacked Yes	10c	1,550$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-44%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbac…c3a4backed Yes	7c	1,447$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.09	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.1wins	+0.27per pick	48cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2068…b53bbacked Yes	9c	1,277$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.69	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf900…cd0cbacked No	71c	1,260$896 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$364.13	98	32.7%32 W · 66 L	-14.9wins	-0.15per pick	48cpaid	-46%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	1,189$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.93	1,558	7.2%112 W · 1,446 L	-35.1wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	2c	1,027$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.83	492	8.7%43 W · 449 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	5c	879.51$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.82	713	5.6%40 W · 673 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c8b…9f41backed Yes	12c	815.32$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.40per pick	40cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No	79c	748.76$590 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$158.7	323	45.2%146 W · 177 L	+9.6wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	-18%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8370…f352backed Yes	12c	738.14$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.58	25	40%10 W · 15 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes	38c	700$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266.78	81	50.6%41 W · 40 L	+12.7wins	+0.16per pick	35cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0xf1ff…9a20backed Yes	46c	698.69$319 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$319	41	63.4%26 W · 15 L	+5.8wins	+0.14per pick	49cpaid	+53.1%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	20c	649.93$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.81	896	17.1%153 W · 743 L	-57.2wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-35%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xde4c…809ebacked Yes	10c	637.5$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.81	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	32cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes	4c	597.28$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.76	106	34%36 W · 70 L	+6.5wins	+0.06per pick	28cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d82…8bb6backed No	75c	583.25$438 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$145.48	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x388e…2078backed Yes	16c	561.97$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.7	91	53.8%49 W · 42 L	+7.2wins	+0.08per pick	46cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a32…9f40backed Yes	22c	545.33$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-2.4wins	-0.20per pick	45cpaid	-62.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x46f5…32aebacked Yes	19c	530.84$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+1.0wins	+0.11per pick	22cpaid	+72.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4de…424cbacked Yes	17c	512.29$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.82	94	36.2%34 W · 60 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes	15c	500$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	61	29.5%18 W · 43 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4cf5…e4b3backed Yes	10c	499.96$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-59.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ebf…db9fbacked Yes	19c	465$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	+1.1wins	+0.05per pick	39cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xff5a…ab91backed Yes	19c	449$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.99	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No	79c	439$349 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.02	292	54.8%160 W · 132 L	+18.2wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd250…b0a4backed Yes	15c	422.77$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.31	28	35.7%10 W · 18 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes	5c	421.81$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.18	242	24.4%59 W · 183 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9675…b63fbacked Yes	27c	410.51$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.97	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x11de…21d7backed Yes	12c	400.55$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	43	53.5%23 W · 20 L	+4.2wins	+0.10per pick	44cpaid	+30.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2106…fa73backed Yes	8c	393.75$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	41	4.9%2 W · 39 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-43.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37ea…f395backed Yes	10c	367$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.42	146	9.6%14 W · 132 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37d5…064cbacked No	78c	366.88$288 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.25	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6ec…c792backed Yes	10c	300.2$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.98	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe8f…3186backed Yes	11c	299.97$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	+2.5wins	+0.16per pick	22cpaid	+72.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x61d7…7848backed Yes	15c	299.3$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.36	30	50%15 W · 15 L	+4.6wins	+0.15per pick	35cpaid	+95.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x40e0…69e3backed No	80c	290.2$231 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.96	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	72cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No	75c	279$208 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.04	353	55.5%196 W · 157 L	+36.1wins	+0.10per pick	45cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	15c	270.59$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.71	413	6.8%28 W · 385 L	-13.6wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes	15c	264.61$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.67	120	23.3%28 W · 92 L	+10.9wins	+0.09per pick	14cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1877…78d7backed Yes	19c	257$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	53	45.3%24 W · 29 L	+2.5wins	+0.05per pick	41cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa3e…3b79backed Yes	14c	241.61$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.76	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-45.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes	14c	229.29$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.1	93	53.8%50 W · 43 L	+12.3wins	+0.13per pick	40cpaid	+34.7%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0x80eb…5bfcbacked Yes	17c	228.66$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.87	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.5wins	-0.30per pick	50cpaid	-69.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x933e…25c9backed Yes	35c	225.71$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	+1.5wins	+0.08per pick	24cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed No	58c	223.77$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.41	322	43.5%140 W · 182 L	+13.2wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes	10c	222$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.2	489	23.5%115 W · 374 L	-14.3wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0370…48d3backed No	70c	212.99$148 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.69	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf75…3880backed Yes	9c	212.62$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	133	21.8%29 W · 104 L	-6.6wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-31.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbd6…9897backed Yes	14c	207$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.98	30	50%15 W · 15 L	+1.7wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0e8…a236backed Yes	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	27cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed No	56c	200$112 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88	46	37%17 W · 29 L	-4.3wins	-0.09per pick	46cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x360f…f29abacked Yes	15c	200$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.9wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7baf…80bbbacked Yes	41c	171.45$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	38cpaid	+347.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No	53c	154.69$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.7	73	41.1%30 W · 43 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes	22c	150.66$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.53	396	21%83 W · 313 L	-57.0wins	-0.14per pick	35cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0x2664…53f8backed Yes	10c	150$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	+2.3wins	+0.13per pick	21cpaid	+63.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8674…0d1ebacked No	55c	150$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68	126	38.1%48 W · 78 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52fc…80a3backed Yes	13c	148.35$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.19per pick	14cpaid	+156.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d78…f3dfbacked Yes	21c	143.97$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.4wins	+0.23per pick	44cpaid	+39.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2fe7…03e0backed Yes	14c	142.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	46	47.8%22 W · 24 L	+3.8wins	+0.08per pick	40cpaid	-3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b19…a980backed Yes	15c	137.83$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.12per pick	28cpaid	+99.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75dc…8763backed Yes	11c	136.36$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb4d…e39ebacked Yes	15c	135.94$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	81.3%13 W · 3 L	+4.0wins	+0.25per pick	56cpaid	+27.4%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes	30c	134.32$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.3	473	34%161 W · 312 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f17…e53dbacked Yes	16c	125$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	28	25%7 W · 21 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	+17.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ee8…afc9backed Yes	17c	123.53$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.10per pick	43cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x08eb…80e0backed Yes	44c	112.82$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfab4…4c19backed Yes	15c	110.6$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.12	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	+28.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe8c5…d6a3backed Yes	23c	108.7$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	13c	104$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.52	865	42.3%366 W · 499 L	-3.8wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x27b7…0704backed Yes	14c	101$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.14	66	62.1%41 W · 25 L	+4.0wins	+0.06per pick	56cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked No	61c	100$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.9	135	44.4%60 W · 75 L	+8.1wins	+0.06per pick	38cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x084f…8b8ebacked Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	68	38.2%26 W · 42 L	-4.8wins	-0.07per pick	45cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe385…a91fbacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-68.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d14…5d39backed Yes	29c	100$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa660…2b9dbacked Yes	14c	99.99$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.17per pick	33cpaid	-74.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe822…e66dbacked Yes	14c	98.71$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.82	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.07per pick	38cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0865…3d2cbacked Yes	16c	97.32$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.57	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.19per pick	39cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x99cd…bafbbacked Yes	32c	96$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.53	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.19per pick	44cpaid	-54.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3a3…b441backed Yes	16c	86.98$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.06	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6013…1a5dbacked Yes	16c	84.17$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.08	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa575…f2d0backed Yes	14c	81.22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	31	35.5%11 W · 20 L	-3.0wins	-0.10per pick	45cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes	15c	80.2$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.08	105	20%21 W · 84 L	-14.9wins	-0.14per pick	34cpaid	-57.5%equal weight	37-0.11 edge/pick
0x7a95…d1babacked Yes	48c	75.84$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.55	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf9d9…1ff9backed Yes	33c	75.76$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	+85.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf70…7350backed Yes	32c	71.48$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.04	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	+5.7wins	+0.20per pick	29cpaid	+57.8%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0xdb0e…73ecbacked Yes	30c	66.42$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.99	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-2.4wins	-0.20per pick	45cpaid	-62.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No	59c	61.79$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.07	75	60%45 W · 30 L	+2.6wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x148c…ee45backed Yes	17c	61.74$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-39.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 5, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event