Middle East · resolved market

Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 12, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe577335d16fe41e3bfdac54db220adb3edafd1ddfeb674f939bad6723470994

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 8, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $23,180

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,180 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	1c	1,798$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.95	492	8.7%43 W · 449 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3432…86bbbacked Yes	4c	1,350$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.02	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	-63%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5be9…4ddcbacked Yes	7c	1,165$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-62.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55d0…f655backed Yes	4c	1,053$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.2	140	36.4%51 W · 89 L	+8.7wins	+0.06per pick	30cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x91a4…ac49backed Yes	7c	993.85$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-1.9wins	-0.19per pick	39cpaid	-74%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes	2c	943.81$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.11	82	7.3%6 W · 76 L	-3.8wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-79.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x37ea…f395backed Yes	2c	943.2$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.9	146	9.6%14 W · 132 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes	3c	854.95$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.18	113	20.4%23 W · 90 L	+10.2wins	+0.09per pick	11cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5e9f…2a2fbacked Yes	3c	810.36$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.64	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-2.5wins	-0.19per pick	35cpaid	-78.6%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2dc5…da90backed Yes	2c	730.73$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.08	27	29.6%8 W · 19 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	24cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6c8…892ebacked Yes	6c	635.91$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.17	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+66%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes	3c	614.49$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.36	127	44.9%57 W · 70 L	+11.9wins	+0.09per pick	36cpaid	+91.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x96e8…d240backed Yes	3c	612.75$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.92	56	26.8%15 W · 41 L	+2.8wins	+0.05per pick	22cpaid	-49.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e6f…67e3backed Yes	3c	550$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.6	73	17.8%13 W · 60 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes	3c	546.41$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.97	228	2.6%6 W · 222 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	2cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9155…de7cbacked Yes	6c	500.65$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	70	24.3%17 W · 53 L	-6.9wins	-0.10per pick	34cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	4c	485.11$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.81	413	6.8%28 W · 385 L	-13.6wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes	3c	457.89$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.3	174	14.4%25 W · 149 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	+17.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…4d48backed Yes	4c	426.48$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.83	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27e2…d5e3backed Yes	5c	420.77$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+1.1wins	+0.12per pick	32cpaid	+22%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b7f…84e8backed Yes	5c	414.99$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.67	28	32.1%9 W · 19 L	+1.7wins	+0.06per pick	26cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	4c	414.02$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.04	507	1.4%7 W · 500 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes	4c	407.99$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.69	221	7.2%16 W · 205 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes	3c	378.53$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.25	356	52.8%188 W · 168 L	+14.2wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes	3c	358.13$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.39	72	1.4%1 W · 71 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	4cpaid	-67.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82ca…7cb7backed Yes	4c	350.08$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	25	28%7 W · 18 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	24cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x792e…4d66backed Yes	4c	299.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.58	31	19.4%6 W · 25 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41d3…3db7backed Yes	5c	249.99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.75	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	29cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaadb…85f9backed Yes	5c	208.4$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	159	22.6%36 W · 123 L	-5.3wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes	6c	202.73$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	126	16.7%21 W · 105 L	+6.1wins	+0.05per pick	12cpaid	+41%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc959…4631backed Yes	8c	131$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 12, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event