Middle East · resolved market

Will Iran announce a new supreme leader by March 31, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d4066fec06ae14cad4bca1470127c09204960d6ea3a042b121cd942895c1d31

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 8, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $118,964

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,964 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	0c	6,871$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.33	507	1.4%7 W · 500 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7e31…454dbacked No	75c	6,081$4,572 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,509.48	60	66.7%40 W · 20 L	+7.3wins	+0.12per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes	16c	5,000$806 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$805.92	61	29.5%18 W · 43 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67c1…8666backed Yes	4c	4,005$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.98	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-34%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf784…ab48backed Yes	15c	3,893$573 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$572.69	45	28.9%13 W · 32 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes	2c	3,592$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.02	243	8.2%20 W · 223 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	0c	3,426$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.26	1,558	7.2%112 W · 1,446 L	-35.1wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e38…1b55backed Yes	18c	2,784$501 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$501.46	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	40cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes	25c	2,660$662 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$662.28	208	23.1%48 W · 160 L	+7.3wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3edc…bf4abacked Yes	46c	2,168$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.40per pick	40cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde4c…809ebacked Yes	3c	2,000$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.06	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	32cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5174…0c80backed Yes	12c	1,667$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.04	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-19%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes	23c	1,628$368 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$368.44	489	23.5%115 W · 374 L	-14.3wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4ba…5933backed No	74c	1,520$1,129 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$390.79	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-34%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes	14c	1,447$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.58	82	7.3%6 W · 76 L	-3.8wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-79.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	14c	1,371$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.97	896	17.1%153 W · 743 L	-57.2wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-35%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x30a7…02fabacked Yes	23c	1,327$305 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$305.26	85	15.3%13 W · 72 L	-4.8wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbadb…5c33backed Yes	9c	1,164$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-64.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xf058…e173backed Yes	14c	1,104$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	159	6.9%11 W · 148 L	-4.3wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9285…4d48backed Yes	7c	1,053$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.68	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes	5c	999.95$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	222	27%60 W · 162 L	+17.8wins	+0.08per pick	19cpaid	+13%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc3ff…9708backed Yes	21c	976.08$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.74	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	32cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c58…1fc0backed Yes	13c	931.37$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.2	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	-2.4wins	-0.12per pick	16cpaid	-63.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6447…8075backed Yes	16c	909.57$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.98	46	41.3%19 W · 27 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+72.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x185f…3649backed Yes	2c	906.37$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.81	139	18.7%26 W · 113 L	-13.9wins	-0.10per pick	29cpaid	-52.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	3c	903.53$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.75	492	8.7%43 W · 449 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57ea…e9e7backed Yes	6c	790.19$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.51	48	47.9%23 W · 25 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes	8c	765.25$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.65	109	13.8%15 W · 94 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	7c	744.47$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.05	199	5%10 W · 189 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4dd…c8febacked Yes	14c	726.98$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-72.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x97b7…146ebacked Yes	12c	711.7$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.43	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.15per pick	32cpaid	-62.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5795…30fabacked Yes	14c	627.45$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.37	87	19.5%17 W · 70 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	9c	607.13$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.11	678	41.6%282 W · 396 L	-20.5wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9833…0b32backed Yes	17c	602.3$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.02	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.10per pick	27cpaid	-76.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec00…dd53backed Yes	14c	601.03$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.41	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.11per pick	36cpaid	-45.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5dc…35f9backed Yes	10c	566$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.17	64	54.7%35 W · 29 L	+4.3wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x97c2…55d6backed No	80c	510$408 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102	44	45.5%20 W · 24 L	-5.9wins	-0.14per pick	59cpaid	-31.6%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes	7c	500$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.5	248	39.5%98 W · 150 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67d6…245ebacked Yes	7c	457.43$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.69	79	29.1%23 W · 56 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes	17c	414$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	356	52.8%188 W · 168 L	+14.2wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes	14c	402.65$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.48	342	34.8%119 W · 223 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1851…ae47backed Yes	13c	399.99$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.55	247	12.1%30 W · 217 L	+6.4wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec4d…07b9backed Yes	7c	381.57$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.47	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.5wins	+0.29per pick	51cpaid	+38.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd944…5651backed Yes	14c	364.95$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-1.5wins	-0.10per pick	22cpaid	-83.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes	24c	353.97$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.76	360	35.3%127 W · 233 L	-30.4wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	20c	339.26$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.25	413	6.8%28 W · 385 L	-13.6wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes	26c	311.19$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.04	101	41.6%42 W · 59 L	+6.0wins	+0.06per pick	36cpaid	+56.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x02e6…56b6backed Yes	17c	310.16$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.2	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.5wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ff6…2c67backed Yes	10c	309.99$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.02	22	0%0 W · 22 L	-2.7wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes	17c	260.76$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.58	261	38.7%101 W · 160 L	-11.6wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes	9c	255$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.98	221	7.2%16 W · 205 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30d1…4525backed No	63c	250$157 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.97	104	64.4%67 W · 37 L	+11.6wins	+0.11per pick	53cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcdcf…144fbacked Yes	5c	233.39$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.47	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	+73.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes	14c	230.22$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.72	72	1.4%1 W · 71 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	4cpaid	-67.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x056c…5066backed Yes	8c	217.76$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	132	28%37 W · 95 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9991…702fbacked Yes	15c	211.06$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-1.9wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8083…2ba5backed Yes	17c	209.47$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb70b…6087backed Yes	12c	200$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.7	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-1.4wins	-0.08per pick	14cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes	14c	200$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.07	200	35.5%71 W · 129 L	-11.0wins	-0.06per pick	41cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No	49c	199.97$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.67	501	30.5%153 W · 348 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3694…4623backed Yes	10c	198.73$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-2.2wins	-0.11per pick	21cpaid	-81.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x40ab…92d8backed Yes	8c	192.38$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.4wins	+0.07per pick	9cpaid	+728%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes	26c	189.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	284	38.7%110 W · 174 L	+13.0wins	+0.05per pick	34cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x13bd…c1e6backed Yes	28c	175.98$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.53	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.13per pick	53cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4454…f6bfbacked Yes	9c	175.66$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.12	37	45.9%17 W · 20 L	-2.9wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e6a…e281backed Yes	20c	172.39$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	4	25%1 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd245…2318backed Yes	14c	167.88$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.74	48	22.9%11 W · 37 L	+1.7wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+23%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes	8c	159$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.51	84	50%42 W · 42 L	+5.4wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc519…8e7cbacked Yes	16c	153.86$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa349…a150backed Yes	10c	150.04$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	39	23.1%9 W · 30 L	+2.6wins	+0.07per pick	16cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3332…89b6backed Yes	11c	147.6$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	30	13.3%4 W · 26 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b41…2a52backed Yes	13c	143.41$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.63	39	23.1%9 W · 30 L	+3.0wins	+0.08per pick	15cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x49aa…917abacked No	77c	130.07$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.07	20	35%7 W · 13 L	+1.5wins	+0.07per pick	28cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1880…f087backed Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes	12c	122.87$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.11	40	0%0 W · 40 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3d7…3377backed No	73c	120$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.12	26	38.5%10 W · 16 L	-2.7wins	-0.10per pick	49cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe316…1766backed Yes	12c	104.88$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.85	40	20%8 W · 32 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8164…df78backed Yes	28c	101.6$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.69	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	+1.4wins	+0.10per pick	33cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaef0…4806backed Yes	17c	101.19$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	-2.3wins	-0.10per pick	49cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3cd…1afabacked Yes	12c	101$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	13cpaid	+73.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab80…af18backed Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.15	45	53.3%24 W · 21 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2482…67b1backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-2.1wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8ea9…6d52backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.4	63	19%12 W · 51 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc405…4affbacked Yes	24c	100$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.3	37	48.6%18 W · 19 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2962…b2d6backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.5wins	+0.30per pick	30cpaid	+70.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5383…3fa5backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.2	25	0%0 W · 25 L	-2.4wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa802…23dfbacked Yes	11c	98.95$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc48d…c398backed Yes	16c	96.96$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.75	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+2.1wins	+0.30per pick	12cpaid	+249.6%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes	19c	90.21$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.12	396	21%83 W · 313 L	-57.0wins	-0.14per pick	35cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0x167d…862abacked Yes	12c	90$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.98	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes	23c	81.2$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.64	119	9.2%11 W · 108 L	-5.8wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-70.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes	15c	81$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.39	65	16.9%11 W · 54 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe55e…e3c7backed Yes	14c	80.67$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	+1.5wins	+0.08per pick	29cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6130…f1edbacked Yes	16c	79.91$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.54	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	+57.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x80b2…c753backed Yes	27c	79.03$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.23	25	44%11 W · 14 L	+1.8wins	+0.07per pick	37cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe947…7a45backed Yes	23c	74.98$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.55	34	50%17 W · 17 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf904…26e5backed Yes	27c	74.28$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.02	40	67.5%27 W · 13 L	+13.0wins	+0.32per pick	35cpaid	+84.2%equal weight	72+0.20 edge/pick
0x86c2…3816backed Yes	27c	74.14$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+1.1wins	+0.14per pick	61cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e97…2ccfbacked No	76c	70$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.94	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.08per pick	67cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd344…3196backed Yes	17c	60$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.02	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Iran announce a new supreme leader by March 31, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event