TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 13, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,507

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,507 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes0c5,767$14 inLost-$14.371,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37ea…f395backed Yes1c2,908$36 inLost-$36.411469.6%14 W · 132 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes1c1,821$14 inLost-$14.224928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5be9…4ddcbacked Yes8c1,506$125 inLost-$1251020%2 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes1c1,297$10 inLost-$102282.6%6 W · 222 L+0.6wins0.00per pick2cpaid-42.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes2c1,218$25 inLost-$25.45827.3%6 W · 76 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-79.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes4c895.31$33 inLost-$32.6912918.6%24 W · 105 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick12cpaid+4.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x55d0…f655backed Yes3c880.38$30 inLost-$30.0614036.4%51 W · 89 L+8.7wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-0.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes2c645.77$16 inLost-$15.822217.2%16 W · 205 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeef6…7547backed Yes7c607.92$40 inLost-$401643.8%7 W · 9 L+3.2wins+0.20per pick24cpaid+61.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x489b…7433backed Yes5c605.45$30 inLost-$30316.5%2 W · 29 L-6.1wins-0.20per pick26cpaid-91%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5e9f…2a2fbacked Yes5c518.85$24 inLost-$23.71315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.19per pick35cpaid-78.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes3c461.13$15 inLost-$14.624136.8%28 W · 385 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-37.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x048e…6e41backed Yes5c443.05$21 inLost-$21.4270%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9285…4d48backed Yes3c402.9$13 inLost-$12.71625%4 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-56.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd656…f11cbacked Yes3c344.25$12 inLost-$12.02520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-70.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9155…de7cbacked Yes7c322.99$21 inLost-$21.027024.3%17 W · 53 L-6.9wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-45.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x41c0…1784backed Yes4c310.46$13 inLost-$1380%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc701…cdf3backed Yes3c300.28$10 inLost-$101421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick30cpaid+0.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes5c238.57$12 inLost-$12.164719.1%9 W · 38 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-35.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6c8…892ebacked Yes8c232.07$19 inLost-$18.92911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick9cpaid+66%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6de…dd43backed Yes5c193.63$10 inLost-$10.41616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+216.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.