Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 4, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62b6e010b7dc31f3ff4d6e8d038e91431439f36e545d95e8c453ba3bd8f18e12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,767
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,767 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3556…4fc3backed Yes | 0c | 9,592$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 4,399$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 72 | 1.4%1 W · 71 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6c…07bcbacked Yes | 17c | 2,457$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…cd0cbacked No | 73c | 2,081$1,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.62 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -14.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,282$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 15c | 1,279$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.83 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a2…599ebacked Yes | 17c | 1,255$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,242$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91a4…ac49backed No | 75c | 1,182$892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.81 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x269f…b93abacked Yes | 12c | 1,169$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b5…a549backed Yes | 17c | 1,165$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x087e…51c5backed Yes | 18c | 1,130$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.7 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -65%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3110…c98cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,015$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…4c9fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,000$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.97 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…6834backed Yes | 11c | 999.98$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.79 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +57%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 37c | 999.98$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.99 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f9…e09dbacked No | 62c | 888.53$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.53 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes | 17c | 859.97$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.32 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce0f…5d37backed Yes | 3c | 796.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 747$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 15c | 705.99$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.77 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 546.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…45fbbacked Yes | 17c | 546.23$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.37 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49f8…8c04backed No | 80c | 539.34$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…f352backed Yes | 14c | 538.23$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.35 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…76eabacked Yes | 20c | 510.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4b…07cbbacked Yes | 43c | 461.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.16 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +187.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes | 7c | 442.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 105 | 20%21 W · 84 L | -14.9wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x34c2…7f87backed Yes | 15c | 429.33$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…424cbacked Yes | 17c | 428.42$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.92 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 427.76$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.86 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeeea…a889backed Yes | 6c | 399.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f24…a7fcbacked No | 54c | 372.97$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.61 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc219…04fabacked Yes | 8c | 350$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa38…13debacked Yes | 17c | 321.12$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…e53dbacked Yes | 16c | 318.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 8c | 310.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xff5a…ab91backed Yes | 16c | 309.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b18…062bbacked Yes | 26c | 307.89$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61d7…7848backed Yes | 16c | 304.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebb…2f4abacked No | 50c | 302.09$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2f…fb79backed Yes | 30c | 299.97$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.99 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d82…8bb6backed Yes | 11c | 288.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa575…f2d0backed Yes | 17c | 283.07$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b19…a980backed Yes | 23c | 265.8$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +99.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e8…a236backed Yes | 13c | 264.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…2153backed Yes | 6c | 263.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3e…3b79backed Yes | 27c | 254.57$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.15 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed No | 36c | 253.11$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.99 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2664…53f8backed Yes | 15c | 250$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e14…86f0backed Yes | 21c | 233.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…48d3backed No | 62c | 200$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 67c | 200$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.85 | 104 | 64.4%67 W · 37 L | +11.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2962…b2d6backed No | 52c | 199.98$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb34b…95a7backed No | 63c | 199.98$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.99 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d9…1ff9backed Yes | 40c | 187.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e5…f6fcbacked Yes | 37c | 183.84$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.52 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…50a7backed Yes | 14c | 180.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes | 15c | 167.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4d…e39ebacked Yes | 22c | 167.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +4.0wins | +0.25per pick | 56cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 37c | 162.3$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.3 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad09…3c3fbacked Yes | 72c | 159.42$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81cf…091ebacked Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84d…f5ffbacked Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86eb…5864backed Yes | 39c | 150$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -4.7wins | -0.28per pick | 51cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x86e5…b213backed Yes | 12c | 145.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf5…e4b3backed Yes | 14c | 140.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 14c | 135.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5e90…5bd6backed Yes | 27c | 134.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…4479backed Yes | 39c | 128.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08a6…f3ccbacked Yes | 21c | 128.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b0…62d6backed Yes | 13c | 127.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8772…e179backed Yes | 38c | 126.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe7…03e0backed Yes | 16c | 125.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe18b…fdf2backed No | 60c | 122.23$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900d…ccf3backed Yes | 52c | 115.76$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x571d…119ebacked Yes | 55c | 114.82$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c5…d6a3backed Yes | 30c | 113.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…9b0cbacked Yes | 13c | 111.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…1812backed Yes | 17c | 109.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2d…bd52backed Yes | 57c | 105.08$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 202 | 35.6%72 W · 130 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…b882backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57f4…6347backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b6…4025backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…8763backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b0…0f7dbacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…7b2cbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Yes | 16c | 98.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 132 | 28%37 W · 95 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed Yes | 19c | 92.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 146 | 9.6%14 W · 132 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b7…3f8ebacked No | 54c | 91.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…84febacked No | 76c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2128…ba59backed Yes | 69c | 83.92$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.21 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 37cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…f82ebacked Yes | 47c | 81.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3012…5b32backed Yes | 27c | 73.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…19bdbacked Yes | 50c | 73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad4…9198backed Yes | 19c | 72.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd89e…b222backed Yes | 42c | 71.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -82%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6cfa…2d73backed Yes | 14c | 71.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 4, 2026?this page
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 12, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 13, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 14, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 15, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 16, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 17, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 18, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 19, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 20, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 21, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 22, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 24, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 25, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 26, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 27, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 28, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 29, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 3, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 31, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 5, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 6, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 7, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026?No won
- Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.