TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 4, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$97,767

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,767 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3556…4fc3backed Yes0c9,592$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131060%6 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes1c4,399$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.48721.4%1 W · 71 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-67.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a6c…07bcbacked Yes17c2,457$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41070%0 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf900…cd0cbacked No73c2,081$1,524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.629832.7%32 W · 66 L-14.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-46%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c1,282$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.441,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes15c1,279$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.83827.3%6 W · 76 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-79.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd8a2…599ebacked Yes17c1,255$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.4540%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes1c1,242$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.444928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91a4…ac49backed No75c1,182$892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.811020%2 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-74%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x269f…b93abacked Yes12c1,169$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.44250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57b5…a549backed Yes17c1,165$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-70.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x087e…51c5backed Yes18c1,130$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.72317.4%4 W · 19 L-4.3wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-65%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3110…c98cbacked Yes3c1,015$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcca9…4c9fbacked Yes17c1,000$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.975238.5%20 W · 32 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x47a5…6834backed Yes11c999.98$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.798033.8%27 W · 53 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+57%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x162f…798dbacked Yes37c999.98$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.9916638.6%64 W · 102 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35f9…e09dbacked No62c888.53$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.532055%11 W · 9 L+3.4wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+76.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes17c859.97$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.325232.7%17 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce0f…5d37backed Yes3c796.28$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.153732.4%12 W · 25 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick24cpaid-2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes2c747$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.825071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes15c705.99$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.7726138.7%101 W · 160 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes5c546.87$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.377135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6770…45fbbacked Yes17c546.23$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.377644.7%34 W · 42 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+3.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x49f8…8c04backed No80c539.34$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-45.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8370…f352backed Yes14c538.23$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.352540%10 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-33.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62d5…76eabacked Yes20c510.66$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d4b…07cbbacked Yes43c461.99$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.164825%12 W · 36 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+187.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes7c442.61$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0810520%21 W · 84 L-14.9wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-57.5%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x34c2…7f87backed Yes15c429.33$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6350%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4de…424cbacked Yes17c428.42$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.929436.2%34 W · 60 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes16c427.76$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.8689617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeeea…a889backed Yes6c399.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.85248.3%2 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick15cpaid-70.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f24…a7fcbacked No54c372.97$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.611471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.5wins+0.25per pick46cpaid+47.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc219…04fabacked Yes8c350$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281650%8 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa38…13debacked Yes17c321.12$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.53250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f17…e53dbacked Yes16c318.75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502825%7 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes8c310.78$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2112325.2%31 W · 92 L+15.2wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+1.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xff5a…ab91backed Yes16c309.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.51553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b18…062bbacked Yes26c307.89$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-46.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61d7…7848backed Yes16c304.49$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503050%15 W · 15 L+4.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+95.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7ebb…2f4abacked No50c302.09$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes14c300$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4242120.9%88 W · 333 L-0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a2f…fb79backed Yes30c299.97$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.991838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-23.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d82…8bb6backed Yes11c288.28$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.712035%7 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-47.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa575…f2d0backed Yes17c283.07$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.483135.5%11 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-44.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b19…a980backed Yes23c265.8$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+99.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0e8…a236backed Yes13c264.25$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.211729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3213…2153backed Yes6c263.58$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-65.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa3e…3b79backed Yes27c254.57$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.151729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-45.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47ae…ee94backed No36c253.11$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.999749.5%48 W · 49 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2664…53f8backed Yes15c250$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.51833.3%6 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick21cpaid+63.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e14…86f0backed Yes21c233.18$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50875%6 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+53.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0370…48d3backed No62c200$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.51435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+19.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30d1…4525backed No67c200$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.8510464.4%67 W · 37 L+11.6wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2962…b2d6backed No52c199.98$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.99560%3 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick30cpaid+70.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb34b…95a7backed No63c199.98$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.991533.3%5 W · 10 L-3.4wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-28.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf9d9…1ff9backed Yes40c187.5$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751833.3%6 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+85.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7e5…f6fcbacked Yes37c183.84$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.527116.9%12 W · 59 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad64…50a7backed Yes14c180.53$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes15c167.58$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.145735.1%20 W · 37 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-31.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb4d…e39ebacked Yes22c167.18$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.521681.3%13 W · 3 L+4.0wins+0.25per pick56cpaid+27.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked No37c162.3$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.329653.7%159 W · 137 L+20.2wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+104.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xad09…3c3fbacked Yes72c159.42$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.06333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-52.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81cf…091ebacked Yes64c156.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002425%6 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb84d…f5ffbacked Yes12c150$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x86eb…5864backed Yes39c150$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.51723.5%4 W · 13 L-4.7wins-0.28per pick51cpaid-61.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x86e5…b213backed Yes12c145.46$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-51.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cf5…e4b3backed Yes14c140.23$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-59.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes14c135.88$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1431728.7%91 W · 226 L-35.7wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-48.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x5e90…5bd6backed Yes27c134.8$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa61…4479backed Yes39c128.87$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick18cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x08a6…f3ccbacked Yes21c128.66$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.814647.8%22 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26b0…62d6backed Yes13c127.15$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.53520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid+17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8772…e179backed Yes38c126.56$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483839.5%15 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fe7…03e0backed Yes16c125.01$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.854647.8%22 W · 24 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick40cpaid-3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe18b…fdf2backed No60c122.23$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.89450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x900d…ccf3backed Yes52c115.76$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x571d…119ebacked Yes55c114.82$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c5…d6a3backed Yes30c113.33$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec15…9b0cbacked Yes13c111.38$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.483613.9%5 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x81e9…1812backed Yes17c109.23$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.075850%29 W · 29 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c2d…bd52backed Yes57c105.08$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc77b…a526backed No67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3320235.6%72 W · 130 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e7f…b882backed Yes16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16429.5%4 W · 38 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-70.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x57f4…6347backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202412.5%3 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-67.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7b6…4025backed Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75dc…8763backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151030%3 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-28.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b0…0f7dbacked Yes45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick46cpaid-60.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa578…7b2cbacked Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.52454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+14.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x056c…5066backed Yes16c98.73$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8413228%37 W · 95 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37ea…f395backed Yes19c92.57$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.241469.6%14 W · 132 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6b7…3f8ebacked No54c91.94$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+83.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa667…84febacked No76c90$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227541.3%31 W · 44 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2128…ba59backed Yes69c83.92$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.211010%1 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.27per pick37cpaid-83.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb9e5…f82ebacked Yes47c81.27$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.24443.2%19 W · 25 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3012…5b32backed Yes27c73.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9640%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e61…19bdbacked Yes50c73$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.516739.5%66 W · 101 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ad4…9198backed Yes19c72.29$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-39.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd89e…b222backed Yes42c71.75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick44cpaid-82%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6cfa…2d73backed Yes14c71.33$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101010%1 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid+56.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.