TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xff5a…ab91

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
78
Categories scored
23
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: CS2, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category CS2 at 56 out of 100; worst AI at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 10, 2026, EDT1553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Nechirvan Barzani out as Kurdistan Regional Government President?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.5
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$10.2
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$602Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$602
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$44
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$102.11
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+49.9%+$249.59
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$2.64
Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$8.4
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$37.8
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+65.2%+$37.5
US strikes Iraq by March 31backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$6.29
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$86.99
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$49.5
All 15 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 20, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+41.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
CS2 — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffsbacked 1WIN · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$110.44
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffsbacked TDK · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$199Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+176.9%+$351.65
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stagebacked Leo Team · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$54.32
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stagebacked illwill · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+167.9%+$208.59
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stagebacked G2 Ares · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.5
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed B8 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.1
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Stagebacked Leo Team · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+231.6%+$207.11
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Stagebacked HEROIC Academy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$82.5
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Stagebacked ex-RUBY · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$80.96
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2backed FlyQuest · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.4
All 10 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+68.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Commodities — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 Week of June 1 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.5
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 15?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 7?backed Up · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT+525%+$58.5
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by May 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$17.7
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on April 30?backed Up · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$52
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on April 30?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.73
Will Israel or the US target Fordow nuclear facility?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+118.4%+$39.57
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.84
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian oil or gas facility?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+117.4%+$27
All 9 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+25.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick40cpaid-77%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick37cpaid+98.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Lol — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$29.76
Will Paradex launch a token on March 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$21.22
All 2 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-36.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$420Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+90.2%+$378.93
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$306Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$306
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 4, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-31.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+440.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-05-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$370Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+440.5%+$1,631.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Conagra Brands (CAG) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$30.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stagebacked FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+150%+$150.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be a US x Iran ceasefire before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$15.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 170m and 180m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$10.14
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+58.7%+$8.07
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Brand Risk Promotions 14: Johnny Manziel vs. Bob Menerybacked Manziel · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+55.1%+$39.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
NCAA Tournament: No. 15 seed to pull off an upset?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.7
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$37
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.